Trading with the Edge.

Short of Euro at 1.5550. SL 1.5565. Profit target LML of blue fork.
Edit: SL Breakeven.
Edit:10.35...the market is currently at 1.5528. I don't know if this trade will be profitable but i feel good about it already. This morning most Gurus and traders on the forum were bullish in this pair. However, according to my system when the price failed to reach its most probable destination, viz UPL. I incorporated the Hagopian rule and waited patiently to get a sell signal. When the bar prior to the intersection of the blue and red fork failed to close above the median line that was my trigger and i sold at 50.
Edit. SL hit for a breakeven trade.

Got stopped out of my trade for breakeven. Dopey my rationale for moving the stoploss without having a logical place to hide it. Firstly, i was going against the trend of the day and when i do take a trade against the main trend for the day then i am more vigilant as price can turn around and continue its main trend. Secondly, at the intersection of 2 forks one expects price to move quite violently.In this trade i had one large bar and then the price went into an energy coil indicating that perhaps it has already spent its downward energy and now its storing energy to move back up again. Thus i moved my stop to breakeven so if i am wrong then i do not let a winning trade become a loser.

Price is currently 1.5585. I guess the Gurus and all the other good folks of FF were right and i was wrong. However, i still feel happy as i followed my system and i was not influenced by others. This is the crux of good trading in my humble opinion. Having a plan that you trust and then regardless of public opinion, having the conviction to execute it. I am slowly getting there. Having said that i know this road is a very long one.

Here is another take on the proceedings of this morning. I guess my short bias prevented me from seeing this good setup. This trade would have been with the trend of the day and a good risk/reward ratio also.

Cable, what a ghastly sight.

Hi Dopey,
This weekend i was backtesting action reaction lines. In the chart below I drew a centre line and an action line. To my my amazement the price almost touched the reaction line and i am short of 1.5597. SL was only 10 pips above and now it is at 1.5595.
Edit: Sl hit at 95..+2

Sorry I forgot to attach the chart. I had drawn these lines over the weekend. I am still amazed at their accuracy.

The above trade on a 4 hr chart.

Hi Zones,

Taking a short today after the very strong up move just isn't a high probability move no matter what the PFs show. Sure it can always turn around, but the move was in the direction of the general trend. Price had bottomed out at some strong support, mainly a longer-term 38% and 50% ret and the weekly ML. Also, if you redraw your original PF and put the C pivot at the low at 5412 you'll see the up move ended at the UML, then came back to the ML and has been riding the ML ever since.

However, moving your stop in this case was the right thing to do because you were going against the main trend and that strong up move. I know you've got a short bias for some reason. However you just shouldn't short powerful moves like that, it just doesn't pay off in the long run.

Here are the weekly charts first.

Here are the daily charts.

Finally, the 15 min chart.

Yes, they work very well. I must confess I don't use them very much at all though I know I should.

Thanks Dopey,
I was aware of the fib retracement to 38% and the fact that it bounced off that level quite cleanly was a good indication of the likely bullish move ahead. Still i managed to focus on the short trade. This short bias is quite bizarre. It is rather more serious than i initially thought. I will give myself until the end of the week to figure out a strategy for overcoming it. If i am unable to overcome it then i shall stop trading live and trade demo account until i overcome it.

Gosh, what a move! As it was a move generated by news release i did not trade it.

I have been on the sidelines so far today. Although, we have had an incredible bullish move over the past few days. There might be a sell signal coming either later today or tomorrow. Ofcourse i shall wait for confirmation of it. In the action/reaction chart below i am hoping for price to run out of its bullish energy and if it does then hopefully i will get a good sell signal.

No sign of weakness in this pair. Nice clean move all the way to the reaction line.

Another good opportunity missed by my long averse eyes.
On a more positive note i have learnt something new today. I was also disiplined enough not to take a trade for the sake of trading. No money lost so all in all a good day.

Price has failed to reach the median line. Lets see if we get a valid sell signal. Alternatively it might pause here a bit and then go higher.

Sold for a quick scalp at 1.5812. SL was only 10 pips. I am hoping to ride it to 38% retracement of yesterdays high/low at around 1.5756.
Sl now breakeven.
Edit: Profit taken at 82.. +30

I closed the above trade because we might test the highs before we go down...if we go down at all.