Basically, I have two things I want to ask once more:
1. is there a bottom in stocks and
2. is there a bottom in USDJPY
With the fact that it's 2 questions of course also comes: is there a risk of decorrelation coming again for the carry and the stocks.
Why?
Well, first of all, as a contrarian indicator, I tend to worry or emphasize most just before turning points. So I am bringing this up in the hopes of this being the exact opposite.
Stocks
On to the markets: The Fed has repeatedly earned praise; it has been called doing all the right things by those who call themselves not too far gone and overinfected by the "opposite side of the cheerleading camp" virus, i.e. superbears.
There have been gestures towards TAF use, there've been quasi-permanent credit window facilities opened, the Fed has shown itself as still freely promiscuous towards rabid cuts in the future for any and all takers, Wall Street saw that nobody is willing to upset the balance of an economy and cause a systemic breakdown just to spite lies, corruption, criminal behavior and fraud(cut off your nose to spite your face is a no go) and that the powers that be are still stronger than any handful of wannabe-bears, thank you very much and that if there is no way to go down, the only direction left is UP.
So much for stocks.
Currency and carry
Now the problem with USDJPY. Even with a return of a gigantic carry trade hunger and surfacing rumours about BOJ cuts, I still see this: the twin relationship with the USDCNY, which has not stopped making new record lows every day since my last mention as well as the narrowing yield between the USD and JPY(if both end up cutting, that doesn't help either, no?
The trouble with this is of course that Japan has also said that if the USA goes down the drain, so will most likely Japan, thereby basically tying themselves to a "in it regardless" logic in this regard.
Since I don't really know crap about fundamentals, this is all just mumbling from a naive observer. This is why I want someone who actually knows something to comment(and no, not about Rothschilds, PLEASE).
Technically speaking
Technically we're still between 11666 - 12800 DJI, 1270-1400 S&P. We haven been unable to leave it to either side yet, however the countermeasures initiated to stop the crucial levels causing a breakdown(which we SHOULD HAVE HAD) hint that the charts may simply get screwed over by outside factors. It happens, we shrug and move on(the counter-setups for PA traders were there regardless of this and chart "logic" remained intact).
Currently we look set to test at least 1367(S&P) again and threaten near 1400 again, if only to find someone to actually sell again. We've now built up quite a strong barrier at 1325 and unless something happens rather fast the next 5 trading days, the monthly close looks to be quite bullish indeed. Similiarly USDJPY should be capped around 101.5 and if it closes above this much, especially if near 103, the implications are bullish as well(however on this chart at least this looks like an unlikely long term scenario).
Summary
So, again - is the bottom in? And, more importantly, can the powers that be allow it NOT to be in and is it therefore actually POSSIBLE not to be in?
Putting aside wishful thinking and "should be", breaking it down to can or can't it for those that actually have a hold on things - what's up? How's things look?
And - can the carry or at least can USDJPY remain bearish and beaten even if stocks rally? Can the carry trade countermand the Yuan/Yen correlation parallel to PBOC hikes and constantly stronger-reset YUAN valuation? Can there be a decoupling? Should there be one? Why? Why not?
I also wonder whether I should have made this a news post for the front page with 1-2 nice charts.
hers what i see...perception is reality for the time being...the fed is the saviour with all kinds of facy tricks that seem to be working..... mom and pop are starting to listen to their ding dong advisors who is telling them the bootom is in lets buy buy buy! woohoo! stocks will go up forever and never come down! all is groovy in the streets...every ding dong on cnbc is getting bullish again...after all the fed is saving the day...... on the ohter hand..... unemployment will continue to rise......... gnp will continue to decline...etc. etc. so ..basically we are seing a temporary bottom
2 cents
and its exactly as rothchild planned it lol just kidding..... lighten up my friend!
