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I'm losing...insight requested....

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 24, 2008 11:39pm Mar 24, 2008 11:39pm
I am having some difficulty trying to figure out what I'm doing or see wrong, or maybe it's just my thinking. I would like some help trying to figure out which it is. Here is the problem, I am losing more trades than I profit from. I'll put up my charts so everyone sees what I see and put in my trade journal so everyone can see what my line of thinking is. If anyone has suggestions they would be greatly appreciated. Now the charts I'll be posting are mt4 charts which are slightly different from mine because I can not save them as pics or graphics they are through GFT but all indicators and stochastics are set up the same. I use Pivot Points to set my targets and will have them on the charts also. I use 15 min. charts with entry and exit points marked. If anyone has questions please feel free to ask. Thanks to everyone for the help.
  • #2
  • Edited 5:59am Mar 25, 2008 5:47am | Edited 5:59am
This is the first trade I did today and I did have a gain of 25 pips. I saw bullish hidden divergence, stochs have crossed, 5ema(tan) crossed the 8 sma(purple), the candle the arrow is on broke above the 21ema(red). I was looking for a retest of the daily r1 at 156.16 as my target. I expected stalling at 156.00(psychological number). This was the first trade I had that was good in 11 trades. With all the losses I was nervous about holding this trade too long.
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  • #3
  • Mar 25, 2008 6:18am Mar 25, 2008 6:18am
<img>The image “http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...&d=1206441745” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
Why do people only post a nice trending period chart?
  • #4
  • Mar 25, 2008 6:20am Mar 25, 2008 6:20am
<img>The image “http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...&d=1206441745” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #5
  • Mar 25, 2008 6:21am Mar 25, 2008 6:21am
lol, great minds
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #6
  • Mar 25, 2008 7:23am Mar 25, 2008 7:23am
I don't know what you mean, it shows up on my screen just fine.
  • #7
  • Mar 25, 2008 8:10am Mar 25, 2008 8:10am
that's cos he's fixed it
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #8
  • Mar 25, 2008 8:21am Mar 25, 2008 8:21am
oh ok, with the last couple weeks I just wasn't sure if I was going nuts or not.
  • #9
  • Mar 25, 2008 8:25am Mar 25, 2008 8:25am
My suggestions are:

1. Look at longer timeframes to orient yourself to where you are in the bigger picture
2. Lose some of those MAs
3. Try to incorporate fundamental analysis
  • #10
  • Mar 25, 2008 9:54am Mar 25, 2008 9:54am
my suggestion:

keep doing trades like that!

show us a problem one
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #11
  • Mar 25, 2008 7:30pm Mar 25, 2008 7:30pm
Quoting fierceman
My suggestions are:

1. Look at longer timeframes to orient yourself to where you are in the bigger picture
2. Lose some of those MAs
3. Try to incorporate fundamental analysis



I'll take these one at a time.
1. I use daily, weekly and monthly for my Pivot Points and to see general direction
2. I use the 5&8 ema, stochastics and IB or OB for entry points. The 21 is a powerful trendline especially when it crosses the blue 55 for trend reversal points. The B.B.s I have found show stalling points. I also use fibs and trendlines on another chart so I don't clutter my charts too much.
3. I usually spend a couple hours checking some of the analysts insights here and another forum I'm on.

All my indicators I use are according to Wayne McDonnell on FxBootcamp.

Thanks for the help.
  • #12
  • Mar 25, 2008 7:35pm Mar 25, 2008 7:35pm
Quoting soultrader
my suggestion:

keep doing trades like that!

show us a problem one

lol, if I could do that I wouldn't have a problem. Like I stated, this was the first gain I got in a long time and the first trade I had since posting. I have no doubt I'll have a problem one in the next day or two.

Thanks.
  • #13
  • Mar 26, 2008 6:04am Mar 26, 2008 6:04am
This is one that I lost. I think I know why but want to get others opinions. As I stated in a post before, the 21 ema is a pretty powerful trendline as this chart shows. If the trend stays above the 21 then the bias is up and vise versa. Most of the time price will return to the 21,55, or 200 ema and bounce off or break and return to one of these and continue back in the direction it was going. If it breaks these then the trend in is bias to the other direction. Here I was thinking it would bounce off the 21 ema but broke down for a continued down trend. Notice the 21(red) and 55(blue) are getting ready to cross. Once they cross then it is confirmation of the downside trend. My mistake was to buy on the 21 thinking it would bounce but it didn't. It went to the 200 ema and held there. If it breaks the 200 ema then we could see further downside to 1.9900. I didn't think the statement by BOE governor was bad enough to drive price down this bad but I guess I was wrong. So the lesson I get from this is to be better prepared for BOE statements and give more time for entry. This is going to consolidate for awhile. Now I'm looking to see what the U.S. news will do

I would like other opinions on this. Thanks.
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  • #14
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:04am Mar 26, 2008 7:04am
You really need to stop trading at low timeframe, especially when a big news is coming out.

Why don't you try switching to 1hr TF with your current indicators etc? Can you see what is wrong?

Pay special attention to S/R, Trendlines, and News..
Why do people only post a nice trending period chart?
  • #15
  • Mar 26, 2008 9:27am Mar 26, 2008 9:27am
In this chart the price action has gone back to the 21 ema due to divergence just before. I am looking to go short off the bounce down and convergence on the stochs but I usually wait for the 5&8 cross. As I'm seeing it there is a high risk of continued uptrend so it's better for me to wait for confirmation with the 5,8. With the daily Pivot Point at the 21 it should be strong resistance.
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  • #16
  • Mar 26, 2008 9:37am Mar 26, 2008 9:37am
Quoting yuhu
You really need to stop trading at low timeframe, especially when a big news is coming out.

Why don't you try switching to 1hr TF with your current indicators etc? Can you see what is wrong?

Pay special attention to S/R, Trendlines, and News..
I don't normally do the 1 hr do to
1. less opportunities to get in on moves in the first three hrs of London and 3 hrs of NY sessions.
2. My MM does not allow me to trade the longer time frames. But I will try to look to the 1 hr on News trades.

I should pay more attention to my second chart with the trendlines on them.

Thanks for the suggestions.
  • #17
  • Mar 26, 2008 11:34am Mar 26, 2008 11:34am
Quoting techtrader10
My MM does not allow me to trade the longer time frames. But I will try to look to the 1 hr on News trades.
Your MM shouldn't really be related to the timeframe you trade. Can you explain how your MM affects the timeframe you trade?

Also, if your MM really doesn't allow it, then maybe it's time to adjust your MM rather than forcing yourself to trade low timeframes.

I didn't want to mention anything about timeframes earlier, because there are a lot of different opinions floating around about that, but since someone already brought it up, I'll say this:

1. It is easier to be profitable on higher timeframes.
2. However, if you do manage to be profitable on lower timeframes, then you will be MORE profitable.
  • #18
  • Mar 26, 2008 5:17pm Mar 26, 2008 5:17pm
ok, heres the advice first, take it or leave it.

1. get rid of the gridlines
2. get rid of the bollinger / keltner / envelope whatever that crap is
3. ditch the stoch, all it does is copy price but after the move so it's no use.

4. this is the big one - if you ignore the rest and do just this one it will turn your trading around. Only buy on a CLOSED up candle, only sell on a CLOSED down candle.

you are buying on an MA before it's 'bounced' as you call it - until the candle has closed up it isnt a bounce - you're trying to predict - you can't.

this is referred to as 'buying strength' - never buy on a down candle - because its not going up - only buy when it's going up, only sell when its going down. simple eh? - get this one thing right and you will win more than you lose.

Trust me on this.

finally, your first post talks about how wonderful the MA's are - in another post somewhere today i posted this very same challenge - find me an MA between 0 and 300, simple, exponential, weighted, smoothed - whatever you like - fine me one that DOESN'T bounce like magic.

have fun looking.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #19
  • Edited 10:45pm Mar 26, 2008 10:20pm | Edited 10:45pm
To get the TF out of the way, I have been trading the 15 min. charts for the last 6 months and have been successful with them on my demo accounts but since I've gone live the last month I have lost something. I also have checked out the candle movement on the hour charts and since I deal with a 2% risk on the account, it prevents me from dealing with anything over that. As far as the indicators, I have tried using no indicators and just use candle size and price action like Greg Capra but found I lost far more than when I use the ema's and stochs. Now if anyone has better indicators, I am more than willing to give them a try, but my way of seeing it is that everyone says their indicators are the best. No one is right and no one is wrong. There is no holy grail of indicators as well as systems. I was told by people who have been in this field for several years that I should have 2 lagging indicators and at least 1 leading indicator. My ema's, stochs and PP serve that purpose. I realize that not every trade is going to be a gain, losses are apart of the game, all I'm looking to do is to limit the losses. I give the way I'm seeing things as far as my past observations and how I was taught. Maybe the teacher wasn't the best but that was all I had and lots of learning from the school of hard knocks. When I first started I was doing the GBP/JPY after losing $10,000 in a demo I realized it wasn't for me but it is the best for large price action. Some love it some hate it, I love it but can't trade it. I have noted some of the suggestions and welcome more but if I see something wrong as far as my call I welcome suggestions on that more. It lets me know that I'm looking at the right thing. After all analysts predict what may happen and I'm trying to see what they do.

Thanks to everyone for the suggestions.
  • #20
  • Mar 27, 2008 12:13am Mar 27, 2008 12:13am
Quoting techtrader10
To get the TF out of the way, I have been trading the 15 min. charts for the last 6 months and have been successful with them on my demo accounts but since I've gone live the last month I have lost something. I also have checked out the candle movement on the hour charts and since I deal with a 2% risk on the account, it prevents me from dealing with anything over that. As far as the indicators, I have tried using no indicators and just use candle size and price action like Greg Capra but found I lost far more than when I use the ema's and stochs. Now if anyone has better indicators, I am more than willing to give them a try, but my way of seeing it is that everyone says their indicators are the best. No one is right and no one is wrong. There is no holy grail of indicators as well as systems. I was told by people who have been in this field for several years that I should have 2 lagging indicators and at least 1 leading indicator. My ema's, stochs and PP serve that purpose. I realize that not every trade is going to be a gain, losses are apart of the game, all I'm looking to do is to limit the losses. I give the way I'm seeing things as far as my past observations and how I was taught. Maybe the teacher wasn't the best but that was all I had and lots of learning from the school of hard knocks. When I first started I was doing the GBP/JPY after losing $10,000 in a demo I realized it wasn't for me but it is the best for large price action. Some love it some hate it, I love it but can't trade it. I have noted some of the suggestions and welcome more but if I see something wrong as far as my call I welcome suggestions on that more. It lets me know that I'm looking at the right thing. After all analysts predict what may happen and I'm trying to see what they do.

Thanks to everyone for the suggestions.
Just some questions,
Are you a scapler?
How many pips is your target? (i.e. profit and loss)

Just some insight to, demo accounts mean nothing, good for practice but will not teach how to control emotions.
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