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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #70,501
  • Mar 22, 2008 2:10am Mar 22, 2008 2:10am
Greetings everybody,
Malcolm your analysis for eur/aud was great.
Please can you kindly throw some light on the breakout pattern of gbp/usd?Is it a triangle or other formation?In which direction will it break and the target levels.I hope you will be online before monday.If otherwise hope some other member may please advise.It will be a great help.
Its real good to learn from all members here as i am very new to forex.This is the best thread around.Undoubtedly.
Warm regards,
Nakamura
  • #70,502
  • Mar 22, 2008 5:00am Mar 22, 2008 5:00am
ff
  • #70,503
  • Mar 22, 2008 5:21am Mar 22, 2008 5:21am
hhhh
  • #70,504
  • Mar 22, 2008 9:40am Mar 22, 2008 9:40am
Quoting nakamura
Greetings everybody,
Malcolm your analysis for eur/aud was great.
Please can you kindly throw some light on the breakout pattern of gbp/usd?Is it a triangle or other formation?In which direction will it break and the target levels.I hope you will be online before monday.If otherwise hope some other member may please advise.It will be a great help.
Its real good to learn from all members here as i am very new to forex.This is the best thread around.Undoubtedly.
Warm regards,
Nakamura
GU.

Here is a 2 hour chart , showing the head and shoulders that formed , with the neckline at 2.0000. Note how the price broke through the neckline and hit the 61.8% fib retracement (went 20 pips below it).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd01.png Size: 207 KB


Drawing simple wave patterns and linear regression channels , the Gu seems to be moving in 400 pip waves down , 200 pip waves up. for now. We can ignore the consolidation phase it is in now as this was primariliy likely due to light trading as traders unwound for the Easter Weekend.

Now how do we trade this ?????

That is straight forward... if you are not in this trade already I would wait for a test of the uppper limits of the linear regression channel at 1.9900 zone. If the trend holds then we could short off 1.9900, with a downside target of 1.9500 .

The Dollar index shows that it might retrace up to 73.90 , if not 74,5(61.8% fib). This was the breakout level and was not tested yet.

IF the trend is broken and USD gets weaker , wait to get into a long on a break out of 2.0000 ( neck line and very important resistance as it is a whole number)

This technical analysis supports the bearish pennant continuation pattern we are seeing in the gj right now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd02.png Size: 249 KB
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  • #70,505
  • Mar 22, 2008 10:32am Mar 22, 2008 10:32am
Quoting malcolmb14
Sharon

Right now on a 4 hour chart we are forming an ascending triangle , this is a breakout pattern ( expect breakout to the upside at 7200).

Only if 1.6800 is broken to the downside will the strong uptrend be broken. I would not be going short , unless it is very a very short trade as you are bucking the trend.

The rsi say that price should drop , however we have been in a VERY bullish uptrend on this pair.

I believe the eurusd is only forming a bull flag right now and will break to the upside taking both euraud and eurcad with it.

If euraud does break to the upside here are your targets:

1.7233
1.7363
1.7530
1.7740

close up showing ascending triangle

Attachment

8 hour showing uptrend channel

Attachment
[IMG]file:///C:/Users/user/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot-5.jpg[/IMG]
hi dear Malcolmb14
im not agree with your point of view about EURAUD .i see that you are swimming in opposed of direction rever
  • #70,506
  • Mar 22, 2008 12:19pm Mar 22, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting hussin naiji
hi dear Malcolmb14
im not agree with your point of view about EURAUD .i see that you are swimming in opposed of direction rever

We can all agree to disagree ....lol

an ascending trianagle is a bullish continuation pattern , and unless the pattern is broken the tremd remains up.

The 50 sma on the 2 hour is at about 1.7050 also and seems to be forming support on this entire move up.

AUDUSD is now considered a carry trade just like gbpjpy is, so if the carry trades unwind audusd will get weaker , even if commodity prices get stronger once more.

In actual fact as I look at audusd right now on a 2 hour i am getting the next sell trigger , thus supporting a possible breakout of the top of the triangle on the euraud.

If this trigger works out expect audusd to go to 0.8924 or even 0.8806

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.png Size: 260 KB
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  • #70,507
  • Mar 22, 2008 3:20pm Mar 22, 2008 3:20pm
first of all let me share with you my view about euro/aud
first of all in the daily euro/usd chart if you opened it you will find a bearish pattern .
and of course you know how the euro/usd influence the other euro pairs.
second i know that you know the correlation between gold and aud .
and from my simple view the gold will raise and with the gold raising
the aud will be drag with .
may be i be wrong but that my view and hope you got green trade my friend.
  • #70,508
  • Mar 22, 2008 3:53pm Mar 22, 2008 3:53pm
Quoting Tiger Hunter
first of all let me share with you my view about euro/aud
first of all in the daily euro/usd chart if you opened it you will find a bearish pattern .
and of course you know how the euro/usd influence the other euro pairs.
second i know that you know the correlation between gold and aud .
and from my simple view the gold will raise and with the gold raising
the aud will be drag with .
may be i be wrong but that my view and hope you got green trade my friend.
You are right eurusd does look bearish , how ever in reality it seem to only be a bull flag forming on the 4 hour. Look at chart of audusd and eurusd on 4 hour. They are very different set ups. AUDUSD is a solid double top , this is a bearish reversal pattern, EURUSD is just a bull flag , this is bullish continuation pattenr once it is broken to the upside

One thing that a lot of traders forget right now is that the AUDUSD is now a strong carry trade , in fact a higher yielding carry trade than gbpjpy

5% on audusd versus 4.75 for gbpjpy. As the market goes down AUDUSD will unwind. AUD is linked to gold , however how comes when gold was at its highest euraud was going vertical and not the other way round ?

Also not on 4 hour chart euraud higher lows.....above the 50 sma. I do not see what other traders are seeing. I am only reading what the charts are telling me and right now as long as that ascending triangle set up reamins intact I will buy on the pullbacks.

If 1.6800 is broken then I would say we are seeing a trend reversal , other than that the trend is bullish. I will be looking for a pullback into 1.6800 to go long.

.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #70,509
  • Mar 22, 2008 4:43pm Mar 22, 2008 4:43pm
lol....
i will lock a deal i started in friday, i think i taked a bad desition that time.
if i did not find what i deserve i will stopp the loss.
  • #70,510
  • Mar 22, 2008 5:22pm Mar 22, 2008 5:22pm
[quote=malcolmb14;1916978]We can all agree to disagree ....lol

an ascending trianagle is a bullish continuation pattern , and unless the pattern is broken the tremd remains up.

The 50 sma on the 2 hour is at about 1.7050 also and seems to be forming support on this entire move up.

AUDUSD is now considered a carry trade just like gbpjpy is, so if the carry trades unwind audusd will get weaker , even if commodity prices get stronger once more.

In actual fact as I look at audusd right now on a 2 hour i am getting the next sell trigger , thus supporting a possible breakout of the top of the triangle on the euraud.

If this trigger works out expect audusd to go to 0.8924 or even 0.8806

dear malcolmb14 , only my reason is fall for EURUSD
in the daily candle chart EURUSD date 2008.03.14 we see a blue of bozu , that displaying that buyers are aggressive .of course this blue of bozu in the next days will be a nightmare for buyers .then we see date 2008.03.16 a negative koma that gapping upper above the previous day .yes ,its right .althrough gap is rare in the fx market .but appearance a gap up trend in the top trend ,say us a new birth trend . then we see a strong shooting star with long upper wick (sell-off 185 p) we must have deep concentration that after negative koma , buyers are able to take price up to new high (1.5905) but after this time sellers are starting for entrance to market .maybe the bulls will be less likely to buy at this higher price level .the long upper wick shows the evidence for selling pressure . now , we see forming bearish shooting star pattern . but we know the this pattern have low reliability .therefore we must wait for to recive a confirmation. we see this confirmation by a red of bozu with long upper wick (sell-off 115 p) .now bears maintain control ,but no .so why we see a long legged doji ???
its right .still a seed of doubt has been placed in the both bulls minds and bears minds .we can see this a seed of doubt in the long legged doji .but now the bears are able to take price down to low (red of opening marubozu)in the end of week also we see a hoshi , i think for the reason that market was closed on friday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1112.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #70,511
  • Mar 22, 2008 5:24pm Mar 22, 2008 5:24pm
also weekly candle chart EURUSD , i see a strong kabuse of bozu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1113.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #70,512
  • Mar 22, 2008 5:40pm Mar 22, 2008 5:40pm
Quoting hussin naiji
also weekly candle chart EURUSD , i see a strong kabuse of bozu
The debate is not , will the eurusd drop.I agree with you on the pullback to the 61.8 fib at 1.5000. I already stated in an earlier post that dollar index is likely going to go up next week.

The real debate is will the audusd drop faster or slower than the eurusd ? This will utlimately determine the direction of EUR/AUD.

Time will tell how this pattern in the euraud plays out , right now it is a bullish pattern , until 1.6800 break tells me otherwise.

If you like weekly candle charts .. check this one out on euraud...1.7200 has formed VERY strong resistance in the past , but the weekly candle is very strong , with a close in the upper portion of the candle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.png Size: 174 KB
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  • #70,513
  • Mar 22, 2008 5:43pm Mar 22, 2008 5:43pm
are you here man i send you a message.
  • #70,514
  • Mar 22, 2008 7:03pm Mar 22, 2008 7:03pm
Quoting Tiger Hunter
are you here man i send you a message.
tiger bro hows you today , i just wake up lol was sleeping but usuaaly my pc always on 24/7 364 days a year lool only this year will be 365 coz february come with 29 days hahah
hows u bro miss u alot and just checked the post nice analyses but i cant see any messege from u bro i dunno where u send it
anyway where u r around let me know am here for the moment checking the history chart for the next week i think for the geppy will be interresting week.
regards
  • #70,515
  • Mar 22, 2008 7:23pm Mar 22, 2008 7:23pm
[quote=hussin naiji;1917104]
Quoting malcolmb14
We can all agree to disagree ....lol

an ascending trianagle is a bullish continuation pattern , and unless the pattern is broken the tremd remains up.

The 50 sma on the 2 hour is at about 1.7050 also and seems to be forming support on this entire move up.

AUDUSD is now considered a carry trade just like gbpjpy is, so if the carry trades unwind audusd will get weaker , even if commodity prices get stronger once more.

In actual fact as I look at audusd right now on a 2 hour i am getting the next sell trigger , thus supporting a possible breakout of the top of the triangle on the euraud.

If this trigger works out expect audusd to go to 0.8924 or even 0.8806

dear malcolmb14 , only my reason is fall for EURUSD
in the daily candle chart EURUSD date 2008.03.14 we see a blue of bozu , that displaying that buyers are aggressive .of course this blue of bozu in the next days will be a nightmare for buyers .then we see date 2008.03.16 a negative koma that gapping upper above the previous day .yes ,its right .althrough gap is rare in the fx market .but appearance a gap up trend in the top trend ,say us a new birth trend . then we see a strong shooting star with long upper wick (sell-off 185 p) we must have deep concentration that after negative koma , buyers are able to take price up to new high (1.5905) but after this time sellers are starting for entrance to market .maybe the bulls will be less likely to buy at this higher price level .the long upper wick shows the evidence for selling pressure . now , we see forming bearish shooting star pattern . but we know the this pattern have low reliability .therefore we must wait for to recive a confirmation. we see this confirmation by a red of bozu with long upper wick (sell-off 115 p) .now bears maintain control ,but no .so why we see a long legged doji ???
its right .still a seed of doubt has been placed in the both bulls minds and bears minds .we can see this a seed of doubt in the long legged doji .but now the bears are able to take price down to low (red of opening marubozu)in the end of week also we see a hoshi , i think for the reason that market was closed on friday.

dear hussein hows you bro hope u r doing fine
i really respect ur reading and specialy for the long term candles pattern i would like one day to learn how to read candles like u .
wel bro keep good work up
and again malcolb ur reading is so interresting congras bro keep up bro .
am checking hte chart and am trying to have some simple idea for what u are talking but i can say u r gr8 both of u
regards
  • #70,516
  • Mar 22, 2008 8:09pm Mar 22, 2008 8:09pm
[quote=warta;1917179]
Quoting hussin naiji


dear hussein hows you bro hope u r doing fine
i really respect ur reading and specialy for the long term candles pattern i would like one day to learn how to read candles like u .
wel bro keep good work up
and again malcolb ur reading is so interresting congras bro keep up bro .
am checking hte chart and am trying to have some simple idea for what u are talking but i can say u r gr8 both of u
regards
how do you read candle stix?
  • #70,517
  • Mar 22, 2008 8:24pm Mar 22, 2008 8:24pm
Quoting malcolmb14
The debate is not , will the eurusd drop.I agree with you on the pullback to the 61.8 fib at 1.5000. I already stated in an earlier post that dollar index is likely going to go up next week.

The real debate is will the audusd drop faster or slower than the eurusd ? This will utlimately determine the direction of EUR/AUD.

Time will tell how this pattern in the euraud plays out , right now it is a bullish pattern , until 1.6800 break tells me otherwise.

If you like weekly candle charts .. check this one out on euraud...1.7200 has formed VERY strong resistance in the past , but the weekly candle is very strong , with a close in the upper portion of the candle.

Attachment

hi again , i would like to share my my simple view :

as i can see in my chart with daily frame E/U a breaking trend just happen 19 mars 08 , bollinger bands whos is a nice indicator to show the hi lo of the price just start to curve down witch is mean the price should continue down to attempt the low channel , my view can be a down for the next week till the 61.8 fab area where he can gather the lo MA of the bollinger bands @ 1.500 area witch it an be a st wave from the uper trand and once the 1.500 broken mean the 61.8 fab mean a breakout of the original uptrend and the pricve will atempt the bottom again .ZL stoch indicator cross over down to assure the down trend for this week , momentum @ zerro level , qqe with a down daviation , so my point is : the 61.8 fab level will be the serious level to complete the 1st up wave or to breake the uper trend and continue down till the bottom .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ch5.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #70,518
  • Mar 23, 2008 4:50am Mar 23, 2008 4:50am
good morning every body
today,i searched the forex-tsd.com and i find a usefull indicator.
this indicator can find candlesticks pattern such as engulfing,three outside,harami and .....

enjoy it


ps:also the link of that thread is:
http://www.forex-tsd.com/indicators-...8-candles.html
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Pattern Recognition.mq4   14 KB | 543 downloads
File Type: mq4 Pattern Alert.mq4   12 KB | 525 downloads
  • #70,519
  • Mar 23, 2008 5:28am Mar 23, 2008 5:28am
Quoting shahroodi
good morning every body
today,i searched the forex-tsd.com and i find a usefull indicator.
this indicator can find candlesticks pattern such as engulfing,three outside,harami and .....

enjoy it


ps:also the link of that thread is:
http://www.forex-tsd.com/indicators-...8-candles.html

thank you Sharhoodi

Never trouble trouble till trouble troubles you
  • #70,520
  • Mar 23, 2008 5:43am Mar 23, 2008 5:43am
Quoting Khello
thank you Sharhoodi

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