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The Bat...a strategy by Team Aphid

  • #221
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:07pm Jan 18, 2007 6:07pm
This is one way to limit your risk and we do the same. If our risk profile allows us to trade 1 standard lot, then we trade 1 lot but divide it into 4, so each lot becomes 25000 unit. Thanks for pointing out this issue, Wiz.

Quoting The Wizard of Oz
Short @ 9671, added 1 part @ 9713 and 2 @ 9738. Waiting for either a full monty or a stop.

BTW I am basing my position size on the original BAT entry to original stop. Then divide by 4. So my risk will always be less than 2%.
  • #222
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:09pm Jan 18, 2007 6:09pm
Please see post #173.

Quoting clam61
sounds great! so what are the win/loss percentages in your backtests?
  • #223
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:13pm Jan 18, 2007 6:13pm
Quoting TeamAphid
This is one way to limit your risk and we do the same. If our risk profile allows us to trade 1 standard lot, then we trade 1 lot but divide it into 4, so each lot becomes 25000 unit. Thanks for pointing out this issue, Wiz.
i have not read this whole thread but i took a look at the document.

correct me if i am wrong but this seems like a breakout trading method, based on the ATR, right?

so it has the same basic underlying method as say...a moving average crossover but instead of a set moving average, you use the ATR as a guage for signaling when a trend changes/begins?
  • #224
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:36pm Jan 18, 2007 6:36pm
Thank you in advance for your contributions. No, our results do not include the spread. Therefore, we enter the trade with 2 lots (Trade #1) and it compensates spreads and give us some extra pips.

We are working on filters as well and still testing jest1081's 72 EMA idea (please see post #190). So far, it seems it helps some of the losing trades if there is a STRONG trend and BAT triggers a countertrend signal (check out elimination of countertrend trades between Oct. 27th and Nov 3rd). But, on the other hand, it should be used with care in ranging markets and turning points due to its lagging nature. Still work in progress.



Quoting Carlos
Also.. do your results include the spread? I am thinking if some form of filter might cut the number of trades while resulting in only slightly leaner results. Perhaps the use of the ATR indicator on a daily or weekly chart as well, therefore we would only take a long trade is it was in agreement with longer timeframe ATR.

I have tested this filter on my futures system and it really made little differnce, but i beleive this is in part because my futures system is working off 2 min charts(filter 240 mins)!! Perhaps it might have more value to your 1 hr BAT system.

I'll get testing my other ideas.........

Cheers Charlie
  • #225
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:44pm Jan 18, 2007 6:44pm
Quoting PTOURNIS
Did anyone go short this morning at 9679?
I went in at 1.9694. That's not a typo...I was trading my BATmod on the 15 minute chart for trading the BAT strategy in an intraday mode.

As shown in the image below I entered with full lots at the bear break of the BAT line at 1.9694. I took 1/3 profits at the 1.236 Fibo (~20pips banked) south of the entry, and another 1/3 profits at the 1.5 Fibo south of entry (~40 pips banked) and let the last 1/3 ride but moved stop to BE+1 so i was stopped out in profit on the final third on the retracement. In this shot below look how pip-on the price hit those 1.236, 1.5 and 1.618 fibos...FREAKY accurate this trade. Jest had mentioned he considers a trade completed when the 1.161.8 fibo is reached. This was text book perfect for what he mentioned in his earlier post! Had i just taken profits at that last fibo the final 1/3rd lots would have been ~60pips : )

http://www.twotrilliondollarsdaily.c...070118a15m.gif
  • #226
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:45pm Jan 18, 2007 6:45pm
Yes, it is basically a breakout technique, but it has some additions such as trying to profit in ranging markets by using fib leves. It is similar to a moving average crossover system in a sense (sell if price is under blue line and vice versa), but ATR gives more room to trades, so it handles many situations better than MAs, IMHO.

Quoting TheAverageYuppy
i have not read this whole thread but i took a look at the document.

correct me if i am wrong but this seems like a breakout trading method, based on the ATR, right?

so it has the same basic underlying method as say...a moving average crossover but instead of a set moving average, you use the ATR as a guage for signaling when a trend changes/begins?
  • #227
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:53pm Jan 18, 2007 6:53pm
We tested 161.8 exit for trade #1 and it gave us less pips compared to our existing "leaving it to BAT line" strategy. But, of course, this is the case for 1hr timeframe. Since you are using 15 minute chart, you may get different results.

We believe it is worth testing the idea of exiting part of the trade #1 at a certaian level and leaving the remaining part to BAT line for trailing. It may well improve the end result.

Thanks again for your contributions.


Quoting accrete
I went in at 1.9694. That's not a typo...I was trading my BATmod on the 15 minute chart for trading the BAT strategy in an intraday mode.

As shown in the image below I entered with full lots at the bear break of the BAT line at 1.9694. I took 1/3 profits at the 1.236 Fibo (~20pips banked) south of the entry, and another 1/3 profits at the 1.5 Fibo south of entry (~40 pips banked) and let the last 1/3 ride but moved stop to BE+1 so i was stopped out in profit on the final third on the retracement. In this shot below look how pip-on the price hit those 1.236, 1.5 and 1.618 fibos...FREAKY accurate this trade. Jest had mentioned he considers a trade completed when the 1.161.8 fibo is reached. This was text book perfect for what he mentioned in his earlier post! Had i just taken profits at that last fibo the final 1/3rd lots would have been ~60pips : )

http://www.twotrilliondollarsdaily.c...070118a15m.gif
  • #228
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:29pm Jan 18, 2007 7:29pm
Great system.... I've integrated it with my current system and use it for entry if all lines up with my analysis.

A quick question... Where is the Fib drawing indicator made availale with the labels of where to enter multiple positions. I cant find it. Can someone please post it or direct me to it?

Thanks,
Bago
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #229
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:33pm Jan 18, 2007 7:33pm
LOL. why dont you guys/gals unmask? its killing me but i understand. team aphid has been here since forex factory was still in the crib. i can say that cant i? old old friends they be.
Quoting TeamAphid
Cheers Jim!
  • #230
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:38pm Jan 18, 2007 7:38pm
Quoting The Wizard of Oz
Short @ 9671, added 1 part @ 9713 and 2 @ 9738. Waiting for either a full monty or a stop.

BTW I am basing my position size on the original BAT entry to original stop. Then divide by 4. So my risk will always be less than 2%.
I tried following the rules, but sleep got in the way, which I think will compromise everyone's ability to follow it 100% (unless I'm having a blonde moment with order options??...please let me know!).
I set a Stop sell for trade 1 @ 1.9671 (filled) with a contingent stop buy @ 1.9779+10+3spread=1.9793.
Upon waking, trade#1(above) was filled but I missed trades 2,3,4 because I don't think you can set your orders for #2,3,4 until #1 is filled (PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong). So I just added 2 positions (for trades 3&4) at the current price, 1.9746, slightly above the 38% fib. So I now have trades 1,3,4 but no #2 trade.

Wiz, I agree with the divide by 4 position size method. I went thru the back test results of TA and the average loss was 42pips, so, on average (based on the 2006 backtests) you could possibly base your total risk on 4x42pips per setup.
For interest sake, other 2006 backtest figures based on TA's spreadsheet are:
Av loss 42pips (213 losing trades)
Av win 61pips (234 winning trades, 1 breakeven)
Av outcome is 11.95 pips per trade
Expectancy 11.95/42=0.28 (I think this is one way to do it?)

Cheers
John
  • #231
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:51pm Jan 18, 2007 7:51pm
Quoting bagovino
...A quick question... Where is the Fib drawing indicator made availale with the labels of where to enter multiple positions. ...
The Fibo levels are mentioned in the PDF file located in post 35 and then there is a simple mod on the levels if you also wish to have the price show on the fibo line that i posted in post 69.

Have fun, great suff TeamAphid has here Bago!
Thom
  • #232
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:52pm Jan 18, 2007 7:52pm
Quoting bagovino
A quick question... Where is the Fib drawing indicator made availale with the labels of where to enter multiple positions. I cant find it. Can someone please post it or direct me to it?

Thanks,
Bago
Bago,
It hasn't been provided. Just use the standard MT4 fib retracement tool as described on page #1 of the pdf. Also, if you want the prices displayed at the various levels, you can just type @%$ in the Description column. For example, for Level 0.382, you could type the following in the Description column: 38.2 enter 1lot@%$ so that "38.2 enter [color=black][email protected][/color]" will be displayed on your fib line on the chart.
Cheers,
John
  • #233
  • Jan 18, 2007 8:01pm Jan 18, 2007 8:01pm
Thanks John, for your figures on 2006 backtest results. Please see our responses, where necessary, within your text.

Quoting johoma
I tried following the rules, but sleep got in the way, which I think will compromise everyone's ability to follow it 100% (unless I'm having a blonde moment with order options??...please let me know!).
I set a Stop sell for trade 1 @ 1.9671 (filled) with a contingent stop buy @ 1.9779+10+3spread=1.9793.
Upon waking, trade#1(above) was filled but I missed trades 2,3,4 because I don't think you can set your orders for #2,3,4 until #1 is filled (PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong). You are NOT wrong, otherwise orders #2,3,4 can be filled before #1. So I just added 2 positions (for trades 3&4) at the current price, 1.9746, slightly above the 38% fib. So I now have trades 1,3,4 but no #2 trade. You could add #2 trade from current level as well since it will have better risk reward ratio compared to short entry @ 1.9711.

Wiz, I agree with the divide by 4 position size method. I went thru the back test results of TA and the average loss was 42pips, so, on average (based on the 2006 backtests) you could possibly base your total risk on 4x42pips per setup.
For interest sake, other 2006 backtest figures based on TA's spreadsheet are:
Av loss 42pips (213 losing trades)
Av win 61pips (234 winning trades, 1 breakeven)
Av outcome is 11.95 pips per trade
Expectancy 11.95/42=0.28 (I think this is one way to do it?)

Cheers
John
  • #234
  • Jan 18, 2007 8:37pm Jan 18, 2007 8:37pm
Great!

Thanks for the help guys!

B.
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #235
  • Jan 18, 2007 9:14pm Jan 18, 2007 9:14pm
Quoting TeamAphid
Thank you in advance for your contributions. No, our results do not include the spread. Therefore, we enter the trade with 2 lots (Trade #1) and it compensates spreads and give us some extra pips.

We are working on filters as well and still testing jest1081's 72 EMA idea (please see post #190). So far, it seems it helps some of the losing trades if there is a STRONG trend and BAT triggers a countertrend signal (check out elimination of countertrend trades between Oct. 27th and Nov 3rd). But, on the other hand, it should be used with care in ranging markets and turning points due to its lagging nature. Still work in progress.
Thanks TeamAphid for your efforts. Am I interpreting this correctly? Your 2006 spreadsheet backtest results DON'T include spread costs. So as there were 448 trade positions taken for the year, the spread costs would be 448*4=1792 (assuming 4 pip spread for GBPUSD). Therefore the net trade profit for the year would be reduced to 5356-1792=3564.

If so, it reduces the Av outcome to 7.96pips per trade and the Av loss increases to 45pips per trade, so the expectancy (av pip return per pip risked) reduces to 7.96/45=0.18.

Thanks,
John
  • #236
  • Jan 18, 2007 9:24pm Jan 18, 2007 9:24pm
I think Team Aphid has put a very simple yet effective system all together. Congratulations and many thanks for your contribution.
  • #237
  • Jan 18, 2007 9:46pm Jan 18, 2007 9:46pm
Yes, you are interpreting correctly, though our spread is 3 pips. That's why we initiate the trade #1 with two lots to improve end results and statistics, and it helped a lot since trade #1 itself is already profitable (+3372 pips profit vs. (448 * 3) -1344 pips for spread). So end result for us is 5356 + 3372 - 1344 = +7384 pips including spread. And this improves statistical figures.


Quoting johoma
Thanks TeamAphid for your efforts. Am I interpreting this correctly? Your 2006 spreadsheet backtest results DON'T include spread costs. So as there were 448 trade positions taken for the year, the spread costs would be 448*4=1792 (assuming 4 pip spread for GBPUSD). Therefore the net trade profit for the year would be reduced to 5356-1792=3564.

If so, it reduces the Av outcome to 7.96pips per trade and the Av loss increases to 45pips per trade, so the expectancy (av pip return per pip risked) reduces to 7.96/45=0.18.

Thanks,
John
  • #238
  • Jan 18, 2007 9:49pm Jan 18, 2007 9:49pm
We, as TeamAphid, thank you all of the FF members keeping this thread alive and helping us improve BAT system further with your valuable contributions.
Thank you FF to provide this opportunity to all of us.

Quoting jest1081
I think Team Aphid has put a very simple yet effective system all together. Congratulations and many thanks for your contribution.
  • #239
  • Jan 18, 2007 10:03pm Jan 18, 2007 10:03pm
Quoting james16
LOL. why dont you guys/gals unmask? its killing me but i understand. team aphid has been here since forex factory was still in the crib. i can say that cant i? old old friends they be.
What??? miss out on being Athena...the goddess of wisdom, arts and skill...nuh...I don't think so...not to mention as Athena then I am younger than Zeus....lol
Yes...you can say we have been around a while..back when FF was just Merlin posting on his own..hehehe
  • #240
  • Jan 18, 2007 10:35pm Jan 18, 2007 10:35pm
Quoting TeamAphid
Yes, you are interpreting correctly, though our spread is 3 pips. That's why we initiate the trade #1 with two lots to improve end results and statistics, and it helped a lot since trade #1 itself is already profitable (+3372 pips profit vs. (448 * 3) -1344 pips for spread). So end result for us is 5356 + 3372 - 1344 = +7384 pips including spread. And this improves statistical figures.
When you are setting buy stops/limits i assume you add spread. So we are not entering the levels we have on the chart but rather 4 pips (in my case) higher. i forgot to do this when i backtested and it results in a lot of errors because the charts are bid. Doh!!! So that means on those trades that looked like they missed the stop by a few pips actually would have been taken out in real life if we had used the bid price for our orders.

So for current GBP/USD the exit showing on the chart is 9783, so my stop really needs to be set at 9787 otherwise I'll be stopped out too early, which might save a few pips here and there but I think will result in missing many orders.

Am I right?

Wiz.
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