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  • #681
  • Mar 20, 2008 1:50pm Mar 20, 2008 1:50pm
Thanks for everybody posting their prediction. This is certainly looking like a setup trap for the DJIA. It's up 200 pts at the moment and neighbours of mine are plunging back in, which doesn't bode well for the market because, as you already know, retail investors are the last to get in and out. If this continues, next week should be a doozy...

Best to all for a wonderful Good Friday

Al
  • #682
  • Mar 20, 2008 1:57pm Mar 20, 2008 1:57pm
BTW,

I just read something from a superb trader who watches the DJIA. His batting average is 92% +.

Here is what he has said:

I can see the immediate risk is a low which I expect on March 28. In between is a high March 19 or 20. Thereafter I see an upmove for many months.

FWIW,
Al
  • #683
  • Mar 20, 2008 4:10pm Mar 20, 2008 4:10pm
It was a fun day. i did not catch all of the move , some of it this morning and missed all of the afternoons action

The dj is a crazy beast right now. We are still in a primary downtrend , so not sure how someone can work out many months of up , in order for that to happen we have to have faith in stocks , which of course retail investors always do as they do not understand the markets behaviour.

Every day the market goes up I have buddies calling me and saying it is a bull market. Until we break 12800 on DJ the bull is not back.

GL is in a penant formation on the 60 min. This is a continuation pattern , so expect some more downside action next week.

see under tha chart for more text

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart12.JPG Size: 134 KB



Alex (adb01) and I got into sell on audjpy yesterday at 90.50 , with a downside target of 89 , but we lost patience and sold this morning for 20 pips profit , before the 225 pip downfall !!! I am the dumb dumb that said we should sell as the trade was taking to long to go into profit.

Looking around for next week I see some very interesting trade set ups in GBPUSD , USDJPY , AUDJPY , EURCAD , these owuld be swing trades. i will post them on the weekend.

Happy Easter all
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #684
  • Mar 20, 2008 4:16pm Mar 20, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting zebra7860
Thanks for everybody posting their prediction. This is certainly looking like a setup trap for the DJIA. It's up 200 pts at the moment and neighbours of mine are plunging back in, which doesn't bode well for the market because, as you already know, retail investors are the last to get in and out. If this continues, next week should be a doozy...

Best to all for a wonderful Good Friday

Al
The market dynamics are somewhat falling apart right now.

I agree with you Al that retial investors rush in on day like today to BUY BUY BUY. They have not figuered out that is what the smart money want them to do.

I am not really sure what drove the market up today , maybe short covering before the weekend , maybe bargain buyers coming into buy on lower commodity prices.

i think anyone going long in stocks is at risk right now. The rumours of $140 oil and $1400 gold are still out there. The DJA is still in a primary down trend.

i am happy to have the volatility as it means that we can make some money as day traders in these crazy times.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #685
  • Mar 20, 2008 4:18pm Mar 20, 2008 4:18pm
you are not dumb... lol... 20 pips is better than nothing... but I can understand your feeling about that.... usual happens when scalping... sometimes you get your 20 pips of the scalp.. and then it goes 200 pips more... it's ok.. because every timeframe has its own target.

happy weekend
  • #686
  • Mar 20, 2008 5:16pm Mar 20, 2008 5:16pm
thank you Malcolmb for discovering me the rapid rsi ... I think is much better than rsi... I had 12 scalp trades today... and 12 winners enough for today... see you next week !
  • #687
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:39pm Mar 20, 2008 6:39pm
Quoting malcolmb14
The market dynamics are somewhat falling apart right now.

I agree with you Al that retial investors rush in on day like today to BUY BUY BUY. They have not figuered out that is what the smart money want them to do.

I am not really sure what drove the market up today , maybe short covering before the weekend , maybe bargain buyers coming into buy on lower commodity prices.

i think anyone going long in stocks is at risk right now. The rumours of $140 oil and $1400 gold are still out there. The DJA is still in a primary down trend.

i am happy to have the volatility as it means that we can make some money as day traders in these crazy times.
I think this is why the markets were out of sync today

Triple Witching happens on the third Friday of every third month (March, June, September, and December), and is the simultaneous expiration (or rollover) of various futures and options contracts. These contracts include some of the index and currency futures, the index and currency options, and the stock options. With the addition of some single stock futures contracts, some day traders are now calling this event Quadruple Witching.
Triple or Quadruple Witching can cause erratic behaviour in the affected (and some non affected) markets, both on and around the expiration days. Some day traders take no notice of these times, some recommend caution, and others recommend not trading at all. Which reaction you choose will depend upon your trading style (scalping, trend trading, etc.), and your trading plan.
Note that not all futures and options contracts expire on only these days, so even though the triple witching days are the most talked about, they are not the only expiration days to be aware of.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #688
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:45pm Mar 20, 2008 6:45pm
Hey buddy can you post this indicator as i didnt find it on the thread. thanks
Quoting emda
thank you Malcolmb for discovering me the rapid rsi ... I think is much better than rsi... I had 12 scalp trades today... and 12 winners enough for today... see you next week !
  • #689
  • Mar 20, 2008 7:15pm Mar 20, 2008 7:15pm
Quoting malcolmb14
It was a fun day. i did not catch all of the move , some of it this morning and missed all of the afternoons action

The dj is a crazy beast right now. We are still in a primary downtrend , so not sure how someone can work out many months of up , in order for that to happen we have to have faith in stocks , which of course retail investors always do as they do not understand the markets behaviour.

Every day the market goes up I have buddies calling me and saying it is a bull market. Until we break 12800 on DJ the bull is not back.

GL is in a penant formation on the 60 min. This is a continuation pattern , so expect some more downside action next week.

see under tha chart for more text

Attachment


Alex (adb01) and I got into sell on audjpy yesterday at 90.50 , with a downside target of 89 , but we lost patience and sold this morning for 20 pips profit , before the 225 pip downfall !!! I am the dumb dumb that said we should sell as the trade was taking to long to go into profit.

Looking around for next week I see some very interesting trade set ups in GBPUSD , USDJPY , AUDJPY , EURCAD , these owuld be swing trades. i will post them on the weekend.

Happy Easter all
i look forward to your post
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #690
  • Mar 20, 2008 7:28pm Mar 20, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting kenneith
Hey buddy can you post this indicator as i didnt find it on the thread. thanks

Look for TP RapidRSI.mq4 in the thread attachments or just click on it.
  • #691
  • Mar 20, 2008 7:36pm Mar 20, 2008 7:36pm
What makes the RapidRSI better than the original....On my chart they both look the same unless I have the wrong indicator....Can you post a chart with your 12 scalps so we can see what you are seeing...Thank you and congrats

Billser


Quoting emda
thank you Malcolmb for discovering me the rapid rsi ... I think is much better than rsi... I had 12 scalp trades today... and 12 winners enough for today... see you next week !
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #692
  • Mar 20, 2008 8:58pm Mar 20, 2008 8:58pm
Quoting Billser
What makes the RapidRSI better than the original....On my chart they both look the same unless I have the wrong indicator....Can you post a chart with your 12 scalps so we can see what you are seeing...Thank you and congrats

Billser
I'll try to do it this weekend... it's not as easy... I use multiple charts timeframes... and channels and some intuition and divergences. It is not only the rapidrsi indicator alone. I recommend to read Malcolmb posts here in this thread and also to follow some of his room sessions.
  • #693
  • Mar 21, 2008 5:08am Mar 21, 2008 5:08am
When I uploaded RapidRSI I also uploaded a Word document explaining the differences. When I compared the standard RSI used in Metatrader to Malcolmb's RSI I noticed that I was not getting the signals he was getting with his eSignal RSI. After exploring a while I discovered Rapid RSI which uses a variation of Welles Wider's equation. Substitute periods for days in definition.

Standard RSI formula is :
RSI = 100 - ( 100 )(1 - RS)
Where RS = average of x day's up closes divided by average of x day's down closes.

Rapid RSI equation is:
Rapid RSI = 100 - ( 100 )(1 - RS)
Where RS = sum of x day's up closes divided by sum of x day's down closes

Hence RSI produces enhanced overbought and oversold transitions. The entire mathmathics are included in the Word document. Just clip the paperclip in the right of the screen and scroll down until you see it.

Regards,
Dave
  • #694
  • Mar 21, 2008 1:56pm Mar 21, 2008 1:56pm
Entropy,

Many thanks for the Rapid RSI document! I use GFT's platform and had no idea that I could have included that as one of my indicators. Since I need some visual indicator, and since uncle Malcolm has been so successful with it, this would be a good starting point for me.


Best
Al
  • #695
  • Mar 21, 2008 2:53pm Mar 21, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting zebra7860
Entropy,

Many thanks for the Rapid RSI document! I use GFT's platform and had no idea that I could have included that as one of my indicators. Since I need some visual indicator, and since uncle Malcolm has been so successful with it, this would be a good starting point for me.


Best
Al

Lol Al.

My success in trading comes from pulling everything together at once , any indicator is just something that shows you that the trend may be turning.


Have a great Easter Al
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #696
  • Mar 21, 2008 6:31pm Mar 21, 2008 6:31pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Lol Al.

My success in trading comes from pulling everything together at once , any indicator is just something that shows you that the trend may be turning.


Have a great Easter Al

Hello Malcolmb,

Hope you are having a good Easter. Now, this has got to go down as one of the quotable quotes (wish there was a section for this in FF). To everyone reading this thread and others, pls take note what Malcolmb has said. It basically summarizes trading using indicators.

I would also like to thank you for introducing me to the 'possibility' of trading YM. I had never looked at it, never thought about it. Just watching it while trading spot, has given me an added dimension to trading. I hope to learn more from you and the others that are catching on with your teachings.

Regards,
K.
  • #697
  • Mar 21, 2008 6:37pm Mar 21, 2008 6:37pm
Quoting kermut
Hello Malcolmb,

Hope you are having a good Easter. Now, this has got to go down as one of the quotable quotes (wish there was a section for this in FF). To everyone reading this thread and others, pls take note what Malcolmb has said. It basically summarizes trading using indicators.

I would also like to thank you for introducing me to the 'possibility' of trading YM. I had never looked at it, never thought about it. Just watching it while trading spot, has given me an added dimension to trading. I hope to learn more from you and the others that are catching on with your teachings.

Regards,
K.
Thanks

careful on that YM she is a real beast and can be tough to trade. I do find gj alot easier to trade than YM , however the reason I am learning how to trade YM is due to the fact that one day GJ volatlity might dry up , whereas the YM seems to always move 200 points up and down in a day , even on quiet days.

I think i have her pegged. I do not trade with more than 2 contract right now to manage the risk .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #698
  • Mar 21, 2008 6:43pm Mar 21, 2008 6:43pm
I have had much request for help since i have beeen on FF , also i have a stock trading club with over 400 members , that I have posted in for free in the past. The amount of emails I get is getting out of hand lol .......

I am working on developing something that will be of benefit to everyone , something amazing that will help you make pips and learn at the same time.

The mission will be to make maximum profit in minimum time in the markets. I know this ..... it will be really awesome , live trading calls and evening market summary.

I will keep you all posted on how things are coming along.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #699
  • Edited 7:03pm Mar 21, 2008 6:48pm | Edited 7:03pm
But what currency does YM refer to?
Oh I almost forgot. Hello everyone, almost forgot to introduce myself. I'm not new to this forum, been silently viewing for quite a while now, this just happens to be my first post.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #700
  • Mar 21, 2008 6:51pm Mar 21, 2008 6:51pm
Hello all. I have a couple of things that I would like to share with all of you this Easter weekend.

Isn't it great to have a place, even be a virtual place like Forex Factory, to come together in an attempt to help each other. Many heads will always be better than one. I thank everyone that participates here. Also a big thanks to Malcomb for diligently maintaining this thread.

First I want to talk about fibs a little bit. We all use them and they make trading so much more strategic, at least for myself. I laugh when I see people say that they are a bunch of lines that the market is bound to hit at some point. Seriously though, out of hundreds of pip places, when you have a few lines on the chart that you see the market using to the pip, you should take note of such an observation.
The implications of fibs fly in the face of the Efficient Market Hypothesis:
The efficient market hypothesis states that it is not possible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck.(Emphasis added) Information or news in the EMH is defined as anything that may affect prices that is unknowable in the present and thus appears randomly in the future.(taken from Wikipedia) The implications of fib projections also fly in the face of the Random Walk Hypothesis: a financial theory stating that stock market prices evolve according to a random walk and thus the prices of the stock market cannot be predicted. (also from wikipedia). It's funny because this information is taught at the university level!
Price doesn't, and will never move out of strategic proportion of itself; very strict and calculated proportion. The fib proportions are seen in nature and throughout the universe. Knowing that things in the natural world adhere to these proportions, does not allow me to be surprised that price does also.
I do wonder however what the effect would be if this was common knowledge.
I've been studying the GBPJPY charts from way back in 2005, which was the last time prices were at the level they are now. I put a fib on an old swing low to swing high in 2005 and found that even now as price again is falling into this old range that, it still uses these old levels as strategic support and resistance! Check out the chart! First chart.
Also, I always say I know where the prices are going, but I don't know when they'll get there. They are always in some sort of cycle. My second chart shows the market making an obligation back in 2005 to go to 196.64, the 2.25 fib level (initial fib levels all breached). The price then continued upward for over three years. As we all know, even the 196.64 level was breached this week and then the cycle finally completed at the 6.618 fib level cleanly @ 192.54, three years later! See third chart!
I hope somebody will get something out if this little bit of info. Spend more time with fibs guys!

May everybody have a joyous Easter. God Bless you all!
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