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Wall Street close watch

  • #361
  • Mar 20, 2008 9:31am Mar 20, 2008 9:31am
Oh come on, where's my doom and gloomers at?

Okay, let me get some boredom sorted..

From http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...D3Q&refer=home

Quote
The Federal Reserve bypassed its own emergency-lending policies to let securities firms borrow at the same interest rate as commercial banks[..]

[..]
Backstopping securities firms, coupled with last week's action to keep Bear Stearns Cos. afloat before its sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co., represent the central bank's first lifelines to institutions other than banks since the Great Depression.
I won't even mention the rising unemployment claims. What's a bit odd is that despite higher DJI futures and real market, the JPY crosses have been slaughtered, CJ and EJ especially. Fine by me

If we've gone over to the "melt them down regardless" phase, I'm all for it.

Speaking of phases - it appears we've entered the "USD rally while carry unwinds" phase(UJ mostly standing still), but without the stock market panic oddly enough. GJ down 200(EJ 230), S&P up 14 points / DJI up 110 from open. Huh. Mkay.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #362
  • Mar 20, 2008 9:49am Mar 20, 2008 9:49am
Quoting SeekingLight
I won't even mention the rising unemployment claims.
Next week's data slate will probably ensure that this usd rally is no more.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #363
  • Mar 20, 2008 10:48am Mar 20, 2008 10:48am
Quoting SeekingLight
Oh come on, where's my doom and gloomers at?
..
you're trying to hard Seek...
Let the events unfold themselves..
  • #364
  • Mar 20, 2008 10:55am Mar 20, 2008 10:55am
Quoting raczekfx
you're trying to hard Seek...
Let the events unfold themselves..
=)

I am just terribly, terribly bad at waiting

Just amazed I'm the only one bearin' the cross! ;p

It should all unfold as foretold either way though of course..you're right..I just miss those "oops where did price go" steps down I guess

Oh well, let's see what easter presents await. I'll be off now anyhow =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #365
  • Mar 20, 2008 11:48am Mar 20, 2008 11:48am
Quoting SeekingLight
Oh come on, where's my doom and gloomers at?
Still around, lurking, waiting to pounce on any prey that comes our way.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #366
  • Mar 20, 2008 12:20pm Mar 20, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting SeekingLight
=)

..
Just amazed I'm the only one bearin' the cross! ;p

It should all unfold as foretold either way though of course..
..
See..., the real problem here is that we don’t have as many printing presses as they have. Sooner or later they will run out of ink or… paper. I guess an offset printer is a recession proof proffession now
  • #367
  • Mar 20, 2008 12:57pm Mar 20, 2008 12:57pm
Quoting Ash
Still around, lurking, waiting to pounce on any prey that comes our way.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #368
  • Mar 20, 2008 2:07pm Mar 20, 2008 2:07pm
this market is NUTS!!! boy am i glad im not wrapped up in this crap! how we can possibly have a sustained rally after this mess is beyond me. everything is saying "lower" to my ears, especially the technicals! we might get some rallies in between, but this sucker is heading south!! (please!)

Quoting SeekingLight
Oh come on, where's my doom and gloomers at?
Relax and be happy.
  • #369
  • Mar 20, 2008 2:09pm Mar 20, 2008 2:09pm
Quoting merlin
this market is NUTS!!! boy am i glad im not wrapped up in this crap! how we can possibly have a sustained rally after this mess is beyond me. everything is saying "lower" to my ears, especially the technicals! we might get some rallies in between, but this sucker is heading south!! (please!)

Agreed
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #370
  • Mar 20, 2008 3:04pm Mar 20, 2008 3:04pm
What da GOLD is going on with OIL?
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #371
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:44pm Mar 20, 2008 6:44pm
Quoting bunton
What da GOLD is going on with OIL?
Gold & Oil = mostly USDX driven => lower EURUSD = lower Gold, Oil. Oil just retested 98.77 s/r (prior highs) and currently has been rejected and is sort of pinning. If it holds that and breaks 103 again convincingly it's got a shot again at 107+.
Oddly enough that'd be against both EURUSD and Gold.

Can't trade it yet anyhow, but I'm thinking about a tiny test account on a market maker(smallest stake a few cents, where can you get that?) for fun and challenge with treasuries, indices, commods...the whole box of fun =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #372
  • Mar 20, 2008 7:06pm Mar 20, 2008 7:06pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Gold & Oil = mostly USDX driven => lower EURUSD = lower Gold, Oil. Oil just retested 98.77 s/r (prior highs) and currently has been rejected and is sort of pinning. If it holds that and breaks 103 again convincingly it's got a shot again at 107+.
Oddly enough that'd be against both EURUSD and Gold.

Can't trade it yet anyhow, but I'm thinking about a tiny test account on a market maker(smallest stake a few cents, where can you get that?) for fun and challenge with treasuries, indices, commods...the whole box of fun =)
You can look here and see if it meets your needs. http://individuals.interactivebroker...&ib_entity=llc
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #373
  • Mar 20, 2008 7:32pm Mar 20, 2008 7:32pm
Quoting merlin
this market is NUTS!!! boy am i glad im not wrapped up in this crap! how we can possibly have a sustained rally after this mess is beyond me. everything is saying "lower" to my ears, especially the technicals! we might get some rallies in between, but this sucker is heading south!! (please!)

Here, this is what I take when feeling market sick :

http://images.jupiterimages.com/comm...7/23137736.jpg
  • #374
  • Mar 21, 2008 2:46am Mar 21, 2008 2:46am
Quoting SeekingLight
Oh come on, where's my doom and gloomers

...

Speaking of phases - it appears we've entered the "USD rally while carry unwinds" phase(UJ mostly standing still), but without the stock market panic oddly enough. GJ down 200(EJ 230), S&P up 14 points / DJI up 110 from open. Huh. Mkay.
Profit taking on GBPUSD during tax season + consistently bad news out of British retail. And dude, the good folks on the UJ are bearin right along with us. Look at your chart on the rate cut date - there was a brief (and hilarious) rally that I could have sworn involved CB action (because I watched as it did a huge up-down rollercoaster before big money took it up).. but the rally was sold off on the same day, and now we are in cool-down-watch-out-for-the-bad-guys mode. USDJPY has lost 1100 pips since late February, which was not long ago. Give the b@stards room to breathe

And Happy Easter, folks. I am decorating with bull-cojones this year instead of eggs! Bull-cojones for everyone! God bless Bernanke.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #375
  • Mar 21, 2008 4:48am Mar 21, 2008 4:48am
Quoting SeekingLight
Oh come on, where's my doom and gloomers at?
Here ya go Seeks!
Quote
Investors should be careful what they ask for. The Fed’s latest cut has brought rates to historical -- indeed spectacular -- lows. But is this truly a good thing for American stocks or American wallets?

Since last summer, we have seen a total of 300 basis points peeled off the central bank’s primary rate. The dollar index has fallen 9.42%. And our reward for this punishment? The markets are down 14% and setting new lows each week.


Overly loose monetary policy stimulated this crisis in the first place. Circulating even more dollars simply cannot cure it. It is the equivalent of attempting to douse a raging bonfire with a bucket full of gasoline.
Attached Image
Carpe Divitiae
  • #376
  • Mar 21, 2008 7:00am Mar 21, 2008 7:00am
Quoting Plutonite
Profit taking on GBPUSD during tax season + consistently bad news out of British retail. And dude, the good folks on the UJ are bearin right along with us. Look at your chart on the rate cut date - there was a brief (and hilarious) rally that I could have sworn involved CB action (because I watched as it did a huge up-down rollercoaster before big money took it up).. but the rally was sold off on the same day, and now we are in cool-down-watch-out-for-the-bad-guys mode. USDJPY has lost 1100 pips since late February, which was not long ago. Give the b@stards room to breathe

And Happy Easter, folks. I am decorating with bull-cojones this year instead of eggs! Bull-cojones for everyone! God bless Bernanke.
Bull cojones.

UJ looks like it will hold below 100 least till we all get back to it
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #377
  • Mar 24, 2008 8:03am Mar 24, 2008 8:03am
Quoting smjones
Well I suppose that it was either JP or Bankruptcy, but 245 mill is not even close to the break up value of 7.7 billion. I would not call this any kind of bail out, I feel sorry for the employees. they owned 30% of the co.
Well now the other shoe drops... beginning to make more sense. JP to raise bid to $10/share. It aint over yet... LOL
  • #378
  • Mar 24, 2008 8:07am Mar 24, 2008 8:07am
Quoting smjones
Well now the other shoe drops... beginning to make more sense. JP to raise bid to $10/share. It aint over yet... LOL
Looks like one of those small news with big news effect. People won't look at the $10 a share. They will look at the quintuple offer size :

Well, after last week, lots of comments on bottom put. I'm skeptical with Dow anything below 12.7k-12.8k.

Above that, I'm a carry trade buyer.
  • #379
  • Mar 24, 2008 8:12am Mar 24, 2008 8:12am
Still 7 times less than the breakup value. Like I say it aint over yet.
  • #380
  • Mar 24, 2008 12:26pm Mar 24, 2008 12:26pm
Quoting smjones
Like I say it aint over yet.
yeah it sure is looking like a long road ahead...the complexities of this deal are enormous, ive been reading countless analysis but still find it hard to wrap my head around everything. if the fed werent involved it would be easier to digest.

btw, i have a friend who trades for Bright in las vegas. those guys are merger/buyout arbitrage specialists and have been trading this fiasco. anyway he told me last week (before this latest news) that they were trading the situation as if Bear would be bought for $15/share. i imagine they were pretty happy today
Relax and be happy.
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