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  • #41
  • Mar 19, 2008 3:54am Mar 19, 2008 3:54am
Quoting jest1081
Thanks,

i'll stick with demo for now. Coz i've calculated my risk skew and its somewhat around the current size im playing.
>>> your call
I have to admit that it takes alot more dancing to start to get the feel. The first dance for me was purely pattern recognition.
>>> but this is exactly learning to dance! I came to the conclusion sometime ago that we already have the most powerful computer in the universe and that it would be very helpful to use it in trading: the brain.The more time we face the 5M with full attention, the more patterns will the brain learn to see.

i saw a big bar down after a period of consolidation, so i sent a scout to test the depth of the selling, well it wasn't so deep so as expected
>>>No to expectation because of too many surprises.

price re-tested the area where the selling was first seen. I used it as a >>>chance to further add to my shorts.

as you can see, i am still not in the zone where i can tango with the market, but i'm 'expecting' prices to get here and here, i was trying to be ahead of the dance. Thats still not good!
>>> It is hard to break the expectation habit but naked chart and babysitting will do it.
The last two entries were the ones i was proud of. They brought little but i felt the movements.

I guess it has been ingrained in me after years of trading that such is the MO for trading, change is good but no-one said it was easy. lol.
>>>No, it is not easy at all but doable. For me the most difficult was getting the confidence of having not stops.

oh i've just realised...Interbank's spread....not pretty.
and my main broker, mf global, is starting to worry me, with petty writedowns
>>>Since we might have plenty of trades per war, the smaller the spread the better. Check Oanda. It has no indicators and other fancy things but we do not use them, right?
Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #42
  • Mar 20, 2008 4:29am Mar 20, 2008 4:29am
Today I felt guilt that yesterday such a short dance. So I decide to dance much longer and more aggresive. That is not a good decision. Why? It is impossing a view on my trading. The good thing is that this way of trading is slow becoming second nature, so I did not follow my own advise.

I did a bunch of calculation yesterday and concluded that for a coward, like me, that only have 1-2 hr/day for trading, my daily pips target and MO is sufficient; and that the plan to increase my sizes should like like this: (1) 100 wars- 2X size, (2) 50 more wars - 3X, and (3) 25 more wars - 4X. Then we hold for at least 25 war. At this point we need to reevaluate the whole thing. Of course, I probably will deviate from this plan as I learn and my life changes. Why revaluation because it seems that it is possible to turn the style into a full time job if neeed. We will see.

As of now, I will not describe trade by trade the wars -enough is done - but I will present my trading mood and the outcome

Bootty: 76 pips
Bias short: 15M is falling.
Moody: Very uncertain all the time. Many confusing thoughts. I wanted the war to last longer because of my guilt of winning so quick yesterday. Shame! Past war do not tell a thing about today battles.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #43
  • Mar 20, 2008 11:12am Mar 20, 2008 11:12am
Quoting luSan
Today I felt guilt that yesterday such a short dance. So I decide to dance much longer and more aggresive. That is not a good decision. Why? It is impossing a view on my trading. The good thing is that this way of trading is slow becoming second nature, so I did not follow my own advise.

I did a bunch of calculation yesterday and concluded that for a coward, like me, that only have 1-2 hr/day for trading, my daily pips target and MO is sufficient; and that the plan to increase my sizes should like like this: (1) 100 wars- 2X size, (2) 50 more wars - 3X, and (3) 25 more wars - 4X. Then we hold for at least 25 war. At this point we need to reevaluate the whole thing. Of course, I probably will deviate from this plan as I learn and my life changes. Why revaluation because it seems that it is possible to turn the style into a full time job if neeed. We will see.

As of now, I will not describe trade by trade the wars -enough is done - but I will present my trading mood and the outcome

Bootty: 76 pips
Bias short: 15M is falling.
Moody: Very uncertain all the time. Many confusing thoughts. I wanted the war to last longer because of my guilt of winning so quick yesterday. Shame! Past war do not tell a thing about today battles.
Like your thinking about guilt for a short war yesterday. I had similar thoughts in that I had 2 hours to trade, and I was going to trade for 2 hours. Wasted opportunities when they presented themselves b/c I did not want to quit early!
  • #44
  • Mar 20, 2008 11:37am Mar 20, 2008 11:37am
Quoting skypeters
Like your thinking about guilt for a short war yesterday. I had similar thoughts in that I had 2 hours to trade, and I was going to trade for 2 hours. Wasted opportunities when they presented themselves b/c I did not want to quit early!
It is amazing the way our emotions are involved in trading. Imagine I lost yesterday $1400. It hurts but not as hard as when I lost $2.54 during forex trading. Why? My personal involvement in the trade...I did it...no excuse...the stock market?...that is done to me by the day traders...Oh well these are my guesses.

By the way. I split my 2 trading hours as:

1 hour for actual trade
1 hour to save the day

Why? because things could be nasty and I might need to save the day before getting ready for work.

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #45
  • Mar 20, 2008 12:04pm Mar 20, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting luSan
It is amazing the way our emotions are involved in trading. Imagine I lost yesterday $1400. It hurts but not as hard as when I lost $2.54 during forex trading. Why? My personal involvement in the trade...I did it...no excuse...the stock market?...that is done to me by the day traders...Oh well these are my guesses.

By the way. I split my 2 trading hours as:

1 hour for actual trade
1 hour to save the day

Why? because things could be nasty and I might need to save the day before getting ready for work.

Regards,
The emotions can be subtle where it's hard to see that is what is happening. I'll keep in mind your trading time split, since I have 2 hours per day for this also.
  • #46
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:09pm Mar 20, 2008 6:09pm
Amazing thing. Once more I tested myself. I played the 1-3-3 sequence with some 6 troops, etc in attack mode. Result? 0.5 % in equity gain for 1 hr trades and the war was against the general trend - which for the 15M EUR/USD is falling today. The problem? Done in a demo mode. It was a test, I told myself.

I talked to my wife: a psychological counseler. The big question? If I can do this repeatly, why do I trade with 10X smaller troop cycle? why not move up and take larger risk?

Answer: Because I am very careful. I am risk adverse....I will not put large amount of real money on the table until I am real sure that I am not a statistical fluke. Do I care? Yes, I do. I deeply love trading and I want to be the best trader I can be...I will walk slowly, learning all I can about the 5M time frame. I will succeed; that is my goal.

Something to remember: trading is probably 95% psychological. What is that telling us? It is telling us that if we understand our trading mind we ought be able to win the trading game.

My results so far: 95 % wins
Why? fti's teaching
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #47
  • Mar 22, 2008 11:59pm Mar 22, 2008 11:59pm
LuSan, first of all, thanks.... for everything.... Your journal is an inspiration... btw, can you explain what is the purpose of you using EMA 48? are you trading long if the price is above ema 48? and short vice versa? thanks
  • #48
  • Mar 23, 2008 8:53am Mar 23, 2008 8:53am
Quoting sovo1970
LuSan, first of all, thanks.... for everything.... Your journal is an inspiration... btw, can you explain what is the purpose of you using EMA 48? are you trading long if the price is above ema 48? and short vice versa? thanks
Thanks for the encouragement.

EMA(48)? Sure. I use it sometimes to help me see the direction of the 15M. It is a center of gravity...PA should be crossing back and for and recommending long or short-even when I might not follow its advise!....I got this idea from the wonderful leighsww in fti's thread...

Still...be carefull...I am coming to the conclusion that EMA(48) could become one more excuse to avoid paying attention to PA in the 5M...I might drop the whole idea...and not even use it...fit told me that he was going to talk about the center of gravity...I wonder because I find it inconsistent with AOW...as far as I understand the little book...More consitent is the idea that the 5M time frame cycles around the 15M...so we could image PA as a multilevel cord full of thread...-Poetry?- but that is an idea for which I just got myself in hot water in the fti's thread!

Thanks for visiting.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #49
  • Mar 24, 2008 5:01am Mar 24, 2008 5:01am
Very low volatility this morning. No much happens and profit targets were adjusted accordingly. Trading spilled into the second hours. The 4 attack was wrong because of not break of the last high high. Booty= 51 pips

Mood: Fearful. EUR/US is falling and here I was taking long positions in attack mode. It was really "ants work", with a lot of waiting. Fear? Yes, because I feel that whenever the market is in a vey low volatility range, PA is just getting ready for a big move; and I do no like surprises.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #50
  • Mar 24, 2008 5:05pm Mar 24, 2008 5:05pm
Hi Lusan!

Good work! Looks like you are becoming a real pro at this

And you're doing it in such a short time period (1 - 2 hours)! Super! Sheesh, I gotta work on my dances to be shorter, lol.

Anyway, just thought I'd drop in after catching up on the posts in fti's thread and reading about your journal

Keep up the good work and your positive/profitable book!

P.S. You just gotta work on getting rid of the fear though, lol
  • #51
  • Mar 24, 2008 5:47pm Mar 24, 2008 5:47pm
Quoting leighsww
Hi Lusan!

Good work! Looks like you are becoming a real pro at this

And you're doing it in such a short time period (1 - 2 hours)! Super! Sheesh, I gotta work on my dances to be shorter, lol.

Anyway, just thought I'd drop in after catching up on the posts in fti's thread and reading about your journal

Keep up the good work and your positive/profitable book!

P.S. You just gotta work on getting rid of the fear though, lol
thanks for the senior visit!

Yes, I am working on getting rid of the fear...even though it does not stop me from taking action....you dance is great as I saw in your example that I review often in my mind...you do not have to change it...I have my time constrains...

Thanks for the visit.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #52
  • Mar 24, 2008 7:07pm Mar 24, 2008 7:07pm
An experiment on late afternoon. A demo. I just came from work...what can I do?...Let me practice...I wil enter at will....this is the result...almost 1% in equity..fit approach once again verify...I am still sceptical...of course...I do not trust but PA...

Point to notice:
1- playing against the trend=warning: not recomended.
2- trench situation- against the wall.. better play short....
3. S/R helps but do not trust anything.
4. When green start coming out. then we have a reversal
5. No emotions because it was a demo...it cannot duplicate the experience of seeing you OWN money doiwn the stream...I was 3 % down at time
6. When you are against resistance you could expect to bounce from it and recover...

I was wrong by going long....the best was to go short...do not follow this example...why was I long? Greed. Greed. I noticed that it was time to revert and I did not....I should....


The BIG learning....IN THIS KIND OF TRAIDING...you must use your brain...ALWAYS....
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #53
  • Mar 25, 2008 3:25am Mar 25, 2008 3:25am
Shortest war...Why? Target met..War won...long biases...Potential breakout...Risky territory... Booty: 64.7

Is more possible? Sure, but as fti tells me "we do ant work."

Mood: thinking about leighsww...no fear...no hope...no luck...technique..watch the bars...wait for the 30S valleys...move in...move in...no greed...let us go home...the enemy is taken.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #54
  • Mar 25, 2008 8:27am Mar 25, 2008 8:27am
Hi,

made 2 dances today eurusd and usdjpy both short. i was expecting a confluence to PA for both pairs and it did happen although i had to do a rescue for eurusd.

Its a pity i had to close the trades, got some errand to run, would have wished to bring home the bacon with usdjpy. its trending beautifully.

will explain the dance if i had time, sorry for not being frequent enough Lusan, i have been busy lately (infact i still am lol) im gonna go out of country in a while. attached the charts below.

blue arrows : areas covered
red arrows : areas shorted

eurusd 51pips
usdjpy abt 90pips

regards
jest
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dance.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #55
  • Mar 25, 2008 5:36pm Mar 25, 2008 5:36pm
Quoting jest1081
Hi,

made 2 dances today eurusd and usdjpy both short. i was expecting a confluence to PA for both pairs and it did happen although i had to do a rescue for eurusd.

Its a pity i had to close the trades, got some errand to run, would have wished to bring home the bacon with usdjpy. its trending beautifully.

will explain the dance if i had time, sorry for not being frequent enough Lusan, i have been busy lately (infact i still am lol) im gonna go out of country in a while. attached the charts below.

blue arrows : areas covered
red arrows : areas shorted

eurusd 51pips
usdjpy abt 90pips

regards
jest
Welcome back.
I liked your dance: a bunch of pips in a short time. Could you please post only your graphs without the stat, then the resolution will be better and I could learn one of two things? I like the way you have both the 1H and the 5M charts..I will look into something simiar.

I will be travelling to Germany next Wedneday and not back until the end the following week. I will be missing my early morning trading session... but I will be reading the threads.. Ah! I love trading...

Best wishes.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #56
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:16am Mar 26, 2008 7:16am
Hi Lusan,

i arranged my screen similar what fti has shown sometime ago.

i have attached the image on top

and below is the enlarged images of the dance i did.

regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dance.jpg Size: 372 KB
  • #57
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:29am Mar 26, 2008 7:29am
Quoting jest1081
Hi Lusan,

i arranged my screen similar what fti has shown sometime ago.

i have attached the image on top

and below is the enlarged images of the dance i did.

regards
Thanks.

A question: I see EMA's in the 1H and 15M. How do you use them?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #58
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:48am Mar 26, 2008 7:48am
erm i think it was there by default in one of the templates if im not wrong...heheh. i din really use them.
  • #59
  • Edited 5:22pm Mar 26, 2008 8:37am | Edited 5:22pm
to myself:

hey...I did traded today...I made 76 pips and I posted the 15M and the 5M graph about 5:00 am..that message got totally erased.- well...maybe I did not published...I really do not know....well...I will post again when I get home...but the comments...this is hard to remember...
--------------------
Ok...here it is...I saw 1D as ABC and going long...the 15M was some what unclear and in a range... I like that..So I decided that if the thing looks long from the perspective of 1D, then long was the bias.

...high volatiltiy indicated high indecision--image 25 pips variability for a 5M bar...so the market did not know what to do...This condition indicated that all hell was going to break loose...I got nervous...5:00 am...then all hell came on my favor...all my profit taking were triggered and I made 76 pips...

I just checked how PA sang after I ended the morning session...200 pips!! So I left hundred of pips on the table...Am I upset? Yes, I am but not because of the left over pips...but because I was in the market when the big jumped happened...it is NOT my plan to play any news...This is not what I want. I want to do ant work...consistency...that is my game..I do not to profit during market tsunamis....

Why?...Image that I my assessment of the trend was wrong...I would be burned and in hell right now....That is a warning....NO NEWS...5:00 am is very dangerous in the EUR/US pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 032608.jpg Size: 52 KB
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #60
  • Mar 26, 2008 4:33pm Mar 26, 2008 4:33pm
Hi luSan

You are providing a great service by detailing your trades - thank you
Irregular
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