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Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked)

  • #461
  • Mar 13, 2008 6:44pm Mar 13, 2008 6:44pm
Quoting AZ-Heat
No offence here but I see you talking alot but not really saying anything of value in your posts.
Thank you for the compliment.... yes I talk allot......

Quoting AZ-Heat
The advice you give is stuff that is already a known ( let profits run cut loses short - Backtesting is not like forward testing and so on ).
The most important thing is, The thing that has been said for centuries....
Remember Noah ? . He has been saying the same old thing over and over.. Thats exactly what I am doing .

you can Backtest a thousand years of data and feel its a great system yet when you need to take the trade live, when you see the setup is happening, you will see the differences.

Cut losses small, well. I have 2 account I play with...
1= I let losses for 2 month run, - 350 trades 14losses all other winner ... just made 15% nett

2 I trade for my $$$, I cut the losses, I took the profit at better %% . I made much more then 15% ...

Its true and usually people starting will ignore these 2 very important fact, we just need to remind & assure, its the best thing to do for their own good.

Quoting AZ-Heat
It seems you just pop in and out of several threads but dont really contribute to the actual trading process of that thread. Since peak and valley is your trading style, how about posting a chart or maybe an entry or two with some explanation to your trades.
Will this chart Do, which I post several days ago and reside just next page ? I guess you missed it ...... :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=62141&page=30
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=446

In case you cant find it here it is again
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1204816539

how easy it is to take the trade on those chart ? because its so easy to mark on the chart and what you see is only profit and $$$ . while taking the trade realtime is totally different matter, which can only be achieved by forward testing.


Quoting AZ-Heat
This would be more productive to the thread then just old saying that have been around for years. I have been trading for more then four years but only post if I have a question or feel that I can contribute in some way. The old saying goes "Talk is cheap, SHOW ME"
you know what they say "Old is Gold"


Quoting AZ-[B
Heat[/b];1902003]
Again, No offence meant here,

AZ-Heat
No offense taken, I just feel some Heat
  • #462
  • Mar 13, 2008 7:06pm Mar 13, 2008 7:06pm
Quoting dan_mir
Hello and Salam syafi,
1. I see you got a 1KT title, congratulations.
Thank you
Quoting dan_mir
2. As for the statement above, it is hard to define the "small losses". I currently trade with a fix 50 pips SL, but it is hit too many times... My TP is usually 100 pips on the 4H charts.
Fix SL is a sure thing to be Hit..
Put the SL above the higher Resistance, for SHORTS
or lower then the next support for Longs.

It might be 20 pip away and maybe its 130 pip away.

Quoting dan_mir
If I understand you right, I should lower the SL. Do you have any back tested data, or suggestions for fix SL (in pips) on 4H charts ?
you cannot put a lower Fix SL. what you can do is Identify the places where your SL are being Hit and move it to higher places, Then what you can do is lower your PIP Value so you still dont risk more then what you normally would,

Quoting dan_mir
I know it is individual, but, I'm looking for something like "If it goes XX pips against you, it is likely to be a lost one".
Thanks
Dani M.
On my 1second chart Setup with EUR/JPY . If it went 5 pip against me, its a lost trade.....I would expect that, I enter the trade, the way it were going and if I enter the wrong way, I would get out immediately . BUT on 4 H chart my SL usually 150 pip.... but they worth almost the same as 15 pip in the 1 second chart

Ron has given a great example as well.
  • #463
  • Mar 13, 2008 7:11pm Mar 13, 2008 7:11pm
Quoting spmaon
hi everyone,

One question. Do you consider chart pattern as one of the way to trade? Or is it just 1-2-3 method?
Chart pattern also work. -2-3 also work, Simply hitting the previous Peak/Valley also work.
  • #464
  • Mar 17, 2008 4:16pm Mar 17, 2008 4:16pm
Hi friends,
1. There is a very few people contributing and helping to keep this thread alive. If no one cares so I will bla bla bla bla . . . .
Please assist !
2. I had a very intensive weekend, I used the time to extract data and details of the trades i did, and to run correlations with the results. (4H charts) -
A) From my successful trades, I took a list of how many pips did the market go "against" me during the trade. Finally, I will have a list of the max number of pips I should use as SL for each pair.
B) I know we are talking about naked trading, but I'm trying to find a supporting tool for the decision to enter a trade or let go. I looked at correlations with Daily & 4H trends and found that it has a minor positive correlation with successful trades, but it doesn't filter bad trades.
C) lately, I was playing around with Boxingislife trading strategy "Sexy Stochastic". you have the link attached . I run a correlation between P&V trades with and without confirmation signals from the other method. I've found that the percentage of successful P&V confirmed by SS was high, and, it was great to see that it filtered bad trades with a high success percentage as well.
D) I tried it today with 1H charts and the results looks very promising.
I'll add a chart and a link to the thread so you can take a look.
BR
Dani M.
Link to Sexy Stochastic thread - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=13321
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  • #465
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:38pm Mar 19, 2008 11:38pm
The correlation & Great filtering by sexy stochastic is on present time only..
It may or may not work in near future .....
  • #466
  • Mar 20, 2008 3:41am Mar 20, 2008 3:41am
Quoting Syafi
The correlation & Great filtering by sexy stochastic is on present time only..
It may or may not work in near future .....
Hi Syafi,

What is the reason for your saying ?

Dani M.
  • #467
  • Mar 20, 2008 3:56am Mar 20, 2008 3:56am
History...........
  • #468
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:10am Mar 20, 2008 6:10am
ggg
  • #469
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:37am Mar 20, 2008 6:37am
An indicator / a filter or whatever Do work on
certain time and fail miserably on another time.....

History shows that discarding every other indicator
& relying on just this Peak & Valley prove to be profitable on long term.

I do admit, this system is boring
unless you use it on 1 second chart
  • #470
  • Mar 20, 2008 6:38am Mar 20, 2008 6:38am
A good Anti Peak & Vally system would be...

Sell @ latest peak & buy @ latest Valley
( work superb on ranging periods )
  • #471
  • Mar 20, 2008 7:37am Mar 20, 2008 7:37am
Thanks Syafi for your inputs.
BR
Dani M
  • #472
  • Mar 20, 2008 4:32pm Mar 20, 2008 4:32pm
Ok, I'm back testing this system for a while and these is my tweaks:
1. SL is given by previous formation (peak or valley), but no more than 50 pips, risking no more than 2.5% per trade for 50 pips.
2. For SL<25 pips the TP would be 2xSL, for SL>25, TP=70 %( 1.4xSL) and 30%TL, where TL is trailing stop equal with the TP.
3. Never let a green trade turn into a red one, so when price goes in your favor for SL+5 pips, move SL close to 0.
4. The orders are placed at about 8 pips above/beyond peak/valley using SMA1, median price, 4H.

There other ones, but this 4 are the most important ones. I'm testing this strategy only on 4 pairs, E/U, G/U, U/J and USD/CAD, because I believe in the quality of the trades despite the quantity. A goal of a medium 200 pips per month per pair is easily achieved in this formation, meaning a profit of 50%.
A good trade is when I Break Even. A great trade is when I Take Profit.
  • #473
  • Mar 24, 2008 7:42pm Mar 24, 2008 7:42pm
Hey guys,

Just stopping in. What about trading with the 3-hour (4-hour) 24-SMA (3-4 day trend) entering on retracements on the hourly chart? If you still want to be naked, just look at the last 3-4 days

I've tried this with 50 pip T/P on EUR/USD and have won 13 out of 17 of the last 17 trades. Not sure how many wins and losses I've had total in the last month of testing, but my return has been 18% on my $100 test account over the last month. At one point the account was as high as 30% increased, but due to the risk I am using the value fluctuates. I believe these numbers could be much better had I not made a couple of mistakes here and there.

The only time your account really goes down is in between trends when the trends are changing or consolidating(non-existent).
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  • #474
  • Mar 27, 2008 3:58am Mar 27, 2008 3:58am
Interesting........
  • #475
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:37am Apr 2, 2008 3:37am
Quoting kharvell
Hey guys,

Just stopping in. What about trading with the 3-hour (4-hour) 24-SMA (3-4 day trend) entering on retracements on the hourly chart? If you still want to be naked, just look at the last 3-4 days
Or, another offer - daily candlesticks with entry 1h-pick&vallies
  • #476
  • Apr 2, 2008 6:14am Apr 2, 2008 6:14am
Does anyone have ZUP indicator?pls post here.thanks
  • #477
  • Apr 2, 2008 3:09pm Apr 2, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting Happy68
Or, another offer - daily candlesticks with entry 1h-pick&vallies
Can you please explain this more. Thanks
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #478
  • Apr 3, 2008 1:12am Apr 3, 2008 1:12am
Quoting TradeStar
Can you please explain this more. Thanks
Yes On 24 March EUR/USD has a hammer - on the next day we have good rally on 1h-chart. On 31 March again reverse candle and on 1 April - good passibility on the 1h-chart. Is it clear so?
  • #479
  • Apr 3, 2008 7:13pm Apr 3, 2008 7:13pm
Quoting Happy68
Yes On 24 March EUR/USD has a hammer - on the next day we have good rally on 1h-chart. On 31 March again reverse candle and on 1 April - good passibility on the 1h-chart. Is it clear so?
Excellent. Thanks

Also, if we can count on prev. day's candle pattern (let's say reverse candle), we can actually sell at rallies rather than waiting for the valley to be broken.

May be you are saying the same thing..

Thanks
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #480
  • Apr 4, 2008 2:08am Apr 4, 2008 2:08am
Quoting TradeStar
Excellent. Thanks

Also, if we can count on prev. day's candle pattern (let's say reverse candle), we can actually sell at rallies rather than waiting for the valley to be broken.

May be you are saying the same thing..

Thanks
Here is the example
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