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The Bat...a strategy by Team Aphid

  • #201
  • Jan 18, 2007 1:23pm Jan 18, 2007 1:23pm
Quoting The Wizard of Oz
Without trying to be offensive. I really think the best answer is to grab a chart and spreadsheet and manually backtest it for yourself. I know this is time consuming but I also know that's it's worth a lot more than just reading someone elses results.

Wiz.
Jip, agree there with Wiz. When doing a manual backtest it prepares you much better to handle the real serious drawdowns. You get a feel for the system, you get FAITH in the system. When you trade the system live it's much easier to handle these situations. By using an EA we do not get the same feeling for the system, therefore DOUBT takes over. With that I do not say to not use EA's, feel free if you are more comfortable with it. Just sit down and think for a moment what it will do to your mental make-up when you are trading on the hard right edge of the chart, all on your own with real money.

The following is from a book by John Hayden - "The 21 Irrefutable Truths Of Trading":

Comparison Table Of Virtues versus Vices
Faith attacks Doubt
Confidence attacks Fear
Discipline attacks Indecision
Courage attacks Anger
Intuition builds Insight
Persistance build Accomplishments
Flexibility builds Growth
Integrity demands Virtues

More in that table than in some trading books. Pretty much sums up the view Team Aphid have on trading as well.

Thanks for all the support and feedback, really appreciate it.
Zeus
  • #202
  • Jan 18, 2007 1:37pm Jan 18, 2007 1:37pm
  •  Carlos
  • | Joined Sep 2005 | Status: Commitment, planning and discipline | 65 Posts
A big thanks to Team Aphid, i do have some ideas which i will test. This system is very much like a system i have been developing for the GBPSUD futures over the last couple of months. Both systems work on the principle of breaking a trailing ATR for entry. I have some ideas which i have found to improve my system, i will test these to see if they further improve the expectancy of the BAT.

I'll report back in a few days http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Cheers Charlie
  • #203
  • Jan 18, 2007 1:59pm Jan 18, 2007 1:59pm
  •  Carlos
  • | Joined Sep 2005 | Status: Commitment, planning and discipline | 65 Posts
Also.. do your results include the spread? I am thinking if some form of filter might cut the number of trades while resulting in only slightly leaner results. Perhaps the use of the ATR indicator on a daily or weekly chart as well, therefore we would only take a long trade is it was in agreement with longer timeframe ATR.

I have tested this filter on my futures system and it really made little differnce, but i beleive this is in part because my futures system is working off 2 min charts(filter 240 mins)!! Perhaps it might have more value to your 1 hr BAT system.

I'll get testing my other ideas.........

Cheers Charlie
  • #204
  • Jan 18, 2007 2:55pm Jan 18, 2007 2:55pm
Thanks to TeamAphid for sharing this system. Looks promising once we can reduce the drawdowns.
  • #205
  • Jan 18, 2007 3:31pm Jan 18, 2007 3:31pm
  •  Carlos
  • | Joined Sep 2005 | Status: Commitment, planning and discipline | 65 Posts
Quoting Ribsy
Thanks to TeamAphid for sharing this system. Looks promising once we can reduce the drawdowns.
ed

The drawdowns look reasonable to me, i'd be happy to trade this system now...........

I have looked at how a daily ATR filter may increase the expectancy of the system. Sadly just as with my futures system it makes no difference. Obviously it cuts the trades but almost cuts the profits in a proportional manner...

Still have other ideas which i am confident will increase the profitability...........

Cheers Charlie
  • #206
  • Jan 18, 2007 3:34pm Jan 18, 2007 3:34pm
Did anyone go short this morning at 9679?
  • #207
  • Jan 18, 2007 3:35pm Jan 18, 2007 3:35pm
so i take this to mean that these methods are not mechanical, i.e. you must trade with a bias in what you think will happen to price i.e. you trade with your emotions involved?


Quoting diallist
Depends on the trader. The trader is the most volatile and unpredictable component of any system.

Sam does better with the Knife than with the Bat.

Jane does better with the Bat than with the Knife.

What is Robert supposed to think? He thinks nothing. He trades both and compares HIS results to HIS results; not to Sam's or Jane's or anyone elses.

Dial

P.S. Everyone, This is Team Aphid's thread, so I'm going to butt out now. Ciao!
  • #208
  • Jan 18, 2007 3:39pm Jan 18, 2007 3:39pm
Quoting PTOURNIS
Did anyone go short this morning at 9679?
Yes, 9677 in my case. Did you add any lots?
  • #209
  • Jan 18, 2007 3:43pm Jan 18, 2007 3:43pm
Quoting Howtoforex
Hi Team Aphid,
thanks for this unorthodox approach and your endless patience.

http://www.howtoforex.com/you_rock.gif

BTW: Athena, Zeus, Hermes and ?????

Best regards,
Attila
Well, there is Dionysus.....but he's drunk all the time, so he's not likely to show up....unless someone screams PARTY!!! loud enough to wake him. <hehe>
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #210
  • Jan 18, 2007 4:56pm Jan 18, 2007 4:56pm
Quoting diallist
Well, there is Dionysus.....but he's drunk all the time, so he's not likely to show up....unless someone screams PARTY!!! loud enough to wake him. <hehe>
I've found a picture of him celebrating a 300 pip trade on cable (copyright Wikipedia)
Attached Image
  • #211
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:16pm Jan 18, 2007 5:16pm
Quoting nvwine
Yes, 9677 in my case. Did you add any lots?
Short @ 9671, added 1 part @ 9713 and 2 @ 9738. Waiting for either a full monty or a stop.

BTW I am basing my position size on the original BAT entry to original stop. Then divide by 4. So my risk will always be less than 2%.
  • #212
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:29pm Jan 18, 2007 5:29pm
Quoting The Wizard of Oz
Short @ 9671, added 1 part @ 9713 and 2 @ 9738. Waiting for either a full monty or a stop.

BTW I am basing my position size on the original BAT entry to original stop. Then divide by 4. So my risk will always be less than 2%.
Thanks, It's nice to see I am in the right ballpark. I notice the top bat line is starting to move down so when the hour closes I'll move my stop lower.
  • #213
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:36pm Jan 18, 2007 5:36pm
Quoting Carlos
ed

The drawdowns look reasonable to me, i'd be happy to trade this system now...........

I have looked at how a daily ATR filter may increase the expectancy of the system. Sadly just as with my futures system it makes no difference. Obviously it cuts the trades but almost cuts the profits in a proportional manner...

Still have other ideas which i am confident will increase the profitability...........

Cheers Charlie
Keep thinking and experimenting.
With the Daily bars perhaps a change of the indi settings might be of use?
Just a thought....
  • #214
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:40pm Jan 18, 2007 5:40pm
im a bit late to the party but since i know the system and the people behind it i can say it is good, real good. the people that make up team aphid are top notch.
  • #215
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:43pm Jan 18, 2007 5:43pm
Quoting clam61
so i take this to mean that these methods are not mechanical, i.e. you must trade with a bias in what you think will happen to price i.e. you trade with your emotions involved?
The BAT is mechanical...very hard to account for emotion in backtesting.
In real time an undisciplined trader will have a certain bias towards price being bullish or bearish and if they allow this to overide their entry signal into a BAT trade ( just an example but any mechanical system) they are possibly setting themselves up for disappointment.
(and...this is speaking from experience...lol)
Cheers
A
  • #216
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:45pm Jan 18, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting PeterFM
I've found a picture of him celebrating a 300 pip trade on cable (copyright Wikipedia)
Yep...this is him....tho I do think he wears glasses!!!!!
  • #217
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:46pm Jan 18, 2007 5:46pm
Quoting james16
im a bit late to the party but since i know the system and the people behind it i can say it is good, real good. the people that make up team aphid are top notch.
Cheers Jim!
  • #218
  • Jan 18, 2007 5:50pm Jan 18, 2007 5:50pm
Current Trade
Attached Image
  • #219
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:04pm Jan 18, 2007 6:04pm
Quoting TeamAphid
The BAT is mechanical...very hard to account for emotion in backtesting.
In real time an undisciplined trader will have a certain bias towards price being bullish or bearish and if they allow this to overide their entry signal into a BAT trade ( just an example but any mechanical system) they are possibly setting themselves up for disappointment.
(and...this is speaking from experience...lol)
Cheers
A

sounds great! so what are the win/loss percentages in your backtests?
  • #220
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:05pm Jan 18, 2007 6:05pm
Quoting TeamAphid
The BAT is mechanical...very hard to account for emotion in backtesting.
In real time an undisciplined trader will have a certain bias towards price being bullish or bearish and if they allow this to overide their entry signal into a BAT trade ( just an example but any mechanical system) they are possibly setting themselves up for disappointment.
(and...this is speaking from experience...lol)
Cheers
A
Keeps me out of many trades that one!

And I can't believe I missed this thread!
I'll have to go back and read it now. : LOL

,Bundy

Edit: And welcome Team Aphid. Your reputation proceeds you.

EditEdit: Wow.... cool new edit feature too . LOL
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
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