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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,901
  • Mar 19, 2008 6:41am Mar 19, 2008 6:41am
Quoting fti
It doesn't matter what I do, Its what you would do,and "the void" you carry, that determines your survival.

"small" is relative to book limit.
I understand the positions are small, but I still don't understand why you do it as your teachings discourage it. If we are not there to look after our babies, I was just thinking you would leave something open if already in profit and the signs are it will continue but if that is the case, would you lock some profit in?

I would prefer not to leave anything open overnight.
  • #1,902
  • Mar 19, 2008 7:03am Mar 19, 2008 7:03am
Quoting zenseven
Yes, I think you are right, maybe, I'm overexposed
But i'm becoming overexposed only when I attack
I do not risk more than 3% of depo with 2 troops
While I attack it can be 12 troops
But in most case i go 1+1+2 it is enough to get 1% per day.
Usually my target is 1% per day


>>>Not supposed. I believe that we do not suppose anything during our dance. What is your supposition?

I agree but I supposed to watch dance of market, but I did not.
I did not dance, i did not feel dance that time

>>>Cut losses ASAP? We fight without quarter. Is it because you were overexposed?
It was much simpler, It was total mistake, i was not in dance.
I was not overexposed it was 0,5% of depo at the end of the day, but in 6 hours i did not detect any possibility to contrattack

>>>We do not trade overnight.
Yes, you are right It was second mistake, but I had one assumption
about rates, it was stupid, but finally it could take me out.
But it was not
Finally I snowballed in direction of initial trades with 12 troops, when i saw price action in my favour
Yesterday I slept when there were opportunities to attack

So I agree Babysitting is key, But when battle is relatively small it is better to surrender because when general is tired, battle would end worser
Thanks. Now I undestand. Happy pipping!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,903
  • Edited 7:19am Mar 19, 2008 7:07am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting Zoran
I understand the positions are small, but I still don't understand why you do it as your teachings discourage it. If we are not there to look after our babies, I was just thinking you would leave something open if already in profit and the signs are it will continue but if that is the case, would you lock some profit in?

I would prefer not to leave anything open overnight.
How are you gonna ride major trend runs, otherwise?

regards

You have err, on what has been taught.
I can cut hand to hand with my short sword, what do you think I can do with the long sword?
  • #1,904
  • Mar 19, 2008 7:18am Mar 19, 2008 7:18am
Quoting fti
How are you gonna ride major trend runs, otherwise?

regards

I can cut hand to hand with my short sword, what do you think I can do with the long sword?
Fine, understood, but then would you lock in profit? That is my question.

Oh, that reminds me - trailing stops.... I've never used them but can I assume they fall into the same bucket is stops?
  • #1,905
  • Mar 19, 2008 7:20am Mar 19, 2008 7:20am
Quoting Zoran
Fine, understood, but then would you lock in profit? That is my question.
What would you use to protect your long quest, then.
It behoves you to reread the thread.

regards
  • #1,906
  • Mar 19, 2008 7:29am Mar 19, 2008 7:29am
Quoting fti
What would you use to protect your long quest, then.
It behoves you to reread the thread.

regards
Once clearly in profit, I would consider placing a stop at break even + 1. This will at least prevent the winning position turning around. Of course if it is placed in a bad position then it could be triggered but that is why I mentioned clearly in profit.

Also, I modified my previous post.... comments on trailing stops?

I will be re-reading this thread shortly but I don't recall much being said about the overnight positions.
  • #1,907
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:13am Mar 19, 2008 11:13am
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=76486


"I was reviewing my Fed alerts for their open market activity today and was completely surprised by one word in a subject line. That word was "drains." The Fed actually initiated what is called a "reverse repo" agreement today, which is the opposite of a "repo"...(thank you Captain Obvious.) A reverse repo pulls cash out of the systems. That's right, the Fed pulled cash out of the US economy! In fact, they pulled $7.25 billion out of the market.
A reverse repo is something that the Fed does in the open market when it is buying and selling securities. The Fed does this everyday to manage the target interest rate. However, they haven't entered into a transaction to temporarily remove money from the market since May 10th of 2007."

Anyone has any clue about this???? That can chage major trends significantly!!!
  • #1,908
  • Mar 19, 2008 1:32pm Mar 19, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting niceguy777
This thread is getting crazy complicated! There are simpler ways, and trading can be much more relaxed than this!
Areyou looking to make more sales of the book? Well, if anyone wants it they can have it for free off me.
  • #1,909
  • Mar 19, 2008 1:35pm Mar 19, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting LoLoAC
Areyou looking to make more sales of the book? Well, if anyone wants it they can have it for free off me.
I want it, I want it, I want it.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,910
  • Mar 19, 2008 1:56pm Mar 19, 2008 1:56pm
Quoting luSan
I want it, I want it, I want it.
Well I hope you have a hamster or other small animal, could be used for beding since its been shreaded.:
  • #1,911
  • Mar 19, 2008 2:14pm Mar 19, 2008 2:14pm
Quoting LoLoAC
Well I hope you have a hamster or other small animal, could be used for beding since its been shreaded.:
Hehe...heh...hehe
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,912
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:13pm Mar 19, 2008 11:13pm
I've been following this thread for at least 2 months. This is very enlightening. So far, in my very limited experience I agree with the philosophy, but have not yet been able to put it to profitable use (demo).

Something I find really interesting though is how the markets move. There seems to be a rhythm, but not a totally predictable pattern. I have only a couple of hours a day to dedicate to this, and it seems to be during a fairly quiet time. Not terribly exciting, but I can usually find some action.


Fortunately I found this thread before going to far down the TA "system" route. Funny how everyone is willing to teach the basics of TA, but few are wiling to provide guidance without $$. I have the basics of TA indicators etc. down, but really didn't find any way to correlate indicators with current price action. Some indicators seem to match past price action fine, but finding an indicator that reliable matches current price action ... I'm not seeing it. Certainly not anything I would want to consistently use for entry and exit points. So I have given up on indicators. I have nothing but PA on my screen. I don't feel like I have given up too much, since I didn't have faith in anything else I had on the screen.


So, I'm going to give this a try for a bit. Seems quite interesting and at least it's free! Thanks FTI for your time and dedication to this thread. You have given a lot of your time to teach the rest of us something about FOREX trading, and a bit of philosophy about life itself. I suppose if nothing else I learn from this thread, I have at least learned that in order to be successful in this business, I will need to find my own way, and it is on me alone to dictate my success.


I am currently working on skew and lot size. I wiped out an account last night working with standard lot size. I'm practicing with small capital ($5K) and mini lots. I enter at .3 mini's and go from there. I am noticing I can keep things very close to even, but then greed gets the better of me, and instead of taking small profits, I wait, then PA goes against me. Well then, instead of taking the few pips I end up down a few and I end up running out of time to stay in the game.

I am focusing on the book though, and not just the single order, especially since multiple orders will be open at once.

Thanks again FTI and everone else for your time and dedication to this thread.
  • #1,913
  • Mar 20, 2008 2:11am Mar 20, 2008 2:11am
Quoting LoLoAC
Well I hope you have a hamster or other small animal, could be used for beding since its been shreaded.:
Not to overstep any lines here, or hijack, or divert from this thread. I do enjoy reading FTI's commentary, but...

I wouldn't knock that book too much.

Granted, I personally enjoyed the first part, psych etc. more than the actual Absolute-FIB and fx trading application part.

But just because a method doesn't work for you, or you couldn't make it work, does not mean it's a bad method.
Some would consider applying Sun Tzu to fx trading strange as well remember.

Have all the lesson's in Art of War, {and even Book of 5 Rings, which I see making an appearance as well lately}, not taught you anything that is not trading related? Then re-read it again, outside the context of the market.

Just some thoughts. That's all. Carry on.
Carpe Divitiae
  • #1,914
  • Mar 20, 2008 4:53am Mar 20, 2008 4:53am
Quoting skypeters

So, I'm going to give this a try for a bit. Seems quite interesting and at least it's free!
>>> Really? This is a lot of work.
Thanks FTI for your time and dedication to this thread. You have given a lot of your time to teach the rest of us something about FOREX trading, and a bit of philosophy about life itself. I suppose if nothing else I learn from this thread, I have at least learned that in order to be successful in this business, I will need to find my own way, and it is on me alone to dictate my success.
>>>Correct. When there are not indicator or other distraction, it is us and PA. Then book balance, leverage and our own mind. That it's. That have been my experience so far.

I am currently working on skew and lot size. I wiped out an account last night working with standard lot size. I'm practicing with small capital ($5K) and mini lots. I enter at .3 mini's and go from there. I am noticing I can keep things very close to even, but then greed gets the better of me, and instead of taking small profits, I wait, then PA goes against me. Well then, instead of taking the few pips I end up down a few and I end up running out of time to stay in the game.
>>>You see. It is you that do it. Right? If you get wipe out you either (1) size too large, (2) do not know the attack/rescue mechanic, or (3) do not a cool head and greed and fear duality lead you....Sorry, Budhist philosopy.

I am focusing on the book though, and not just the single order, especially since multiple orders will be open at once.
>>>Yes, the book, but also the mind set must be important.

Thanks again FTI and everone else for your time and dedication to this thread.
Skypeters, do not lose hope. This thing works. What about reducing your sizes to very small (0.001 lot) and practice attack/rescue for a while?

These are my two cents. Fti has the first and final word. I hope I am not writing too much in this thread. My excuse, fti, I get carry away.

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,915
  • Edited 7:03am Mar 20, 2008 5:43am | Edited 7:03am
Quoting luSan
Skypeters, do not lose hope. This thing works. What about reducing your sizes to very small (0.001 lot) and practice attack/rescue for a while?

These are my two cents. Fti has the first and final word. I hope I am not writing too much in this thread. My excuse, fti, I get carry away.

Regards
hi Lusan,

No problem, carry on.
In effects, like I said the presentation, had already ended some time back.
I am just tying loose ends, to help if any may be going the wrong direction.
One "old timer" on this thread, Zoran , just found his foot as he emailed me.
If he is willing to share what he learned, it may be eye opener for some here.

You in effect . learned very fast, probably because of your background foundation. There' re some tweaks and alignments for your style. But essentially the mindset, MM, is ok, the MO is your own, which is good for the restrictions you may have in terms of time constrains. Eventually it will all come to you, just have patience and practise,practise and practise.

Here's something to help you along. Remember, knowing how to use short sword although can bring home bread and butter. Its the ability to combine both the short and long that brings home the bacon.


Trade well and do not forget to be a sandpiper for some of the unfortunate, with some profits when you can. Then it makes it all worthwhile. When was the last time you did something nice for your family or strangers in need?

Most do not help others, because they cannot afford to. When you have means and not do it, then its somethings else, deep within. And this goes for all who can find their way from this thread. Otherwise watch that mindset. Remember. tt can eat you from within.
"Beware, the enemy within you."

regards
  • #1,916
  • Mar 20, 2008 8:08am Mar 20, 2008 8:08am
Thanks for the que fti. I'll try to keep it short.

Just to give a little background, when I discovered this thread, which was at about page 2, I had been trading reasonably successfully over the past few months, however, over a matter of days I put a huge dent into my account and that gave my confidence a good slap. I realised that something was wrong but couldn't put my finger on it. At that point fti came along and I was very impressed with his background so I thought if anyone knew what was going on, it would be him.

So I decided to put aside my trading, wipe the slate clean and listen to what he had to say. I generally stopped trading and I also started to get busy at work so whatever spare time I had was dedicated to this thread. Anyway, as I was going through it, I came to a significant insight when I read the scorpion story. I then knew exactly what was wrong and knowing that I had a self-destructive nature helped me overcome that weakness.

However, as the thread was progressing I could manage to understand most things but if anyone had noticed, I kept probing about the technical analysis part. I had been following this thread fairly closely but that part seemed elusive. I had my own experience and knowledge but I wasn't sure what I should use. Each time I asked fti, he seemed to discount it or had some better method. It was something I couldn't put my finger on but I knew I was familiar with what was being said. I had this idea that before starting to practice fti's teaching I wanted it to be clear in my head. That meant the TA part as I didn't really have issues with the rest.

Finally, I just decided to jump into the deep end. Even though I wasn't sure about the TA part, I knew fti's teachings so I wanted to see what I can do with it. I had my naked chart in front of me and I did what I thought was right. So as I was watching I started to feel the market and its pulse. Then I could see the dance starting to change so I thought here is an opportunity to enter. I waited a little longer for some confirmation and since it was doing what I expected, I entered. It worked out well and as I could see the dance changing again, I closed it. I did it again and then I came to the realisation that this was the missing link. There was a little explosion in my head and a flood of parked information rushed in. While I was searching for the elusive TA part, it was in fact the dance and feeling the market pulse that was missing. My problem was simply that I did not put into practice what I had already known. Once I did I could finally move onto the next level and this felt very liberating.

Since I've been watching charts and action for two years, it came fairly naturally. I didn't need any indicators or analysis, just the naked chart. My knowledge of TA still came into use, but it was normally after entry. Patterns would develop to confirm my position or to alert me of potential developments but feeling the market seemed most important. By the end of the day, I caught 5 or 6 good waves and rescued one entry. I was only dancing with the scout but that was enough for the first day. Time to start using the spirals.

So to those people who are just observing this thread and to those that are still a little uncertain, my advice is to read the thread, get naked and jump in. There are a few of us here now so don't be shy! There is still some parked information that continues to trickle in. If we listen to the market and ourselves, the scorpion is history.

Anyway, I am off for an Easter break with my family so wishing everyone all the best. See you when I get back.
  • #1,917
  • Mar 20, 2008 8:11am Mar 20, 2008 8:11am
Lusan - thanks for the reply. I'm not at all discouraged, just realize it is part of learning. I will make plenty of mistakes, just want to make them while demoing, so I can identify some of the pitfalls.

Last night, I was mainly in attack sequence. For the most part I did not need the rescue scenario ... until the end. I was attacking with 1, 1 , 3, 6.
This seemed fairly reasonable for MM.
I was at 6, and could have pulled a few pips off, but decided to wait. PA went against me. I waited some more, then realized I didn't know what to do. PA was consolidating into a triangle, and I didn't know which way things were heading.

Instead of trying a rescue I closed the book with a loss (1.5%). Needed to get to sleep and couldn't make good decisions.

I really noticed the snowball effect though, when I added 6 troops. A 1 or 2 pip change in either direction starts to have a noticeable effect.

Still working on MM and comfort zone, but .3 mini's seemed decent. I'll keep trying this as my starting point for now. Attack and rescues definitely need work.

Need to control that little voice in my head that says to wait a bit longer. Forget that, I got to work on pulling the trigger.
  • #1,918
  • Mar 20, 2008 8:42am Mar 20, 2008 8:42am
Quoting skypeters
Lusan - thanks for the reply. I'm not at all discouraged, just realize it is part of learning. I will make plenty of mistakes, just want to make them while demoing, so I can identify some of the pitfalls.

Last night, I was mainly in attack sequence. For the most part I did not need the rescue scenario ... until the end. I was attacking with 1, 1 , 3, 6.
This seemed fairly reasonable for MM.
>>>Though I have the 1-2-3 sequence I am still changing thing around. I am using the 1-3-3 and maybe 1-3-3 sequence and I repeat at will

I was at 6, and could have pulled a few pips off, but decided to wait. PA went against me. I waited some more, then realized I didn't know what to do. PA was consolidating into a triangle, and I didn't know which way things were heading.
>>>OOps!...I was there triangle and other patterns. I found that they make me forget PA. We actually do not know and will never know where thing will be headed. We dance and do as the market want us to do. Considering the triangle meant that you were in analysis mode...see the thread about the topic...We analysy before trading after we move in we dance.

Instead of trying a rescue I closed the book with a loss (1.5%). Needed to get to sleep and couldn't make good decisions.

I really noticed the snowball effect though, when I added 6 troops. A 1 or 2 pip change in either direction starts to have a noticeable effect.

Still working on MM and comfort zone, but .3 mini's seemed decent. I'll keep trying this as my starting point for now. Attack and rescues definitely need work.
>>>I did some calculation and 0.3 mini seems safe for 10K account at 30:1 leverage. More than .5 mini and then I might not have enough troop for defence when things are rough.

Need to control that little voice in my head that says to wait a bit longer. Forget that, I got to work on pulling the trigger.
Yes, the voice I hear too, that is why I believe that practice will silence the losing voice out. The voice will make us hesitate on pulling the trigger.

Regards.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,919
  • Mar 20, 2008 9:03am Mar 20, 2008 9:03am
In regards to the triangle I mentioned, I was not trying to analyze for patterns, just noticed that PA was consolidating and volatility was waning. Hard to dance with a partner who is standing still. Definitely wasn't trying to analyze anything in order to predict.

Basically for determining entry direction, I just eyeball PA at 15 and 30 min to see if both are in same direction, regardless of other time limits. I may decide not to enter if things don't seem to be pointing to one direction.

I was trying to work at 5 min time frame, but realized the last couple nights I am looking at the 1 minute time frame the most. I think I was moving too fast with this and not being patient to allow things to move.
  • #1,920
  • Edited 10:40am Mar 20, 2008 10:17am | Edited 10:40am
Quoting skypeters
In regards to the triangle I mentioned, I was not trying to analyze for patterns, just noticed that PA was consolidating and volatility was waning. Hard to dance with a partner who is standing still. Definitely wasn't trying to analyze anything in order to predict.
Hi skypeter,


If you think it is hard to dance with a dormant partner. How do you think you would fare dancing with a partner thats all over the place. There are a million variations and possibilities althought the decision is binomial in nature.
Seek for the master timer within self. Deal with every situation as best you can, and as best you can handle.
Check your own rythem ( know self), before you try to check the markets rythem. Re-access the time frame you are observing. Slow and steady, never rush. It creates bad ability to feel. And never allow frustration to get the upper hand, tame it. Be relaxed and focused. Glide with the flow, don't force.

Hope this helps
regards
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