Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 95 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,881
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:25am Mar 18, 2008 10:25am
I have read book China, Inc. : how the rise of the next
superpower challenges America and the world by Fishman Ted C.

And author explained very good how are people loosing jobs because production is going in china how chinese are willing to work for pennies and which troubles have international companies when they came in. Big companies learn chinese how to make sth, and they start to copy it and to use same methods. Big companies are developing market. And also what is the problem of so low renimbi and some american ceo's complained to U.S authorities when will they allow renimbi to rise,beacuse low renimbi make chinese more competitive. I also read on council of foreign affairs website how will be china threat for a World in next decades and what are possible options to deal with. I don't see it right now main goal of U.S acts to defeat china but to make more conflicts and wars worldwide and the best soultion is to deepen economies and make more anger on a planet. Just see what cased independece of Kosovo worldwide and what more conflicts will it provoke. (i am serbian bytheway). regards
  • #1,882
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:51am Mar 18, 2008 10:51am
Quoting mijamoto
I have read book China, Inc. : how the rise of the next superpower challenges America and the world by Fishman Ted C.....Just see what cased independece of Kosovo worldwide and what more conflicts will it provoke. (i am serbian bytheway). regards
I still cannot figure out kosovo support in the west. What are the macroeconomical reasons?

Have you read musashi mijamoto?..it is one of my favorite books.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,883
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:08am Mar 18, 2008 11:08am
Kosovo's economy is for a long time in reccession. Their primary sector is criminal and they lived from Serbian investing and budget and also by some West donations. Now when they are independent it will be funny to see how long will EU donate to Kosovo and keep 2 milion hungry people. I think Russia wants to make a oil and gas pipeline through serbia which will go also through kosovo and will supply from this Pipeline south-eastern europe and i think it will go to Italia. Some people says there shoul be gold in Kosovo's mountains. I don't know what is the U.S purpose for kosovo i think just to make wars in this region and they can send their soldiers and spend money.

Regards and enjoy your time

P.S what is mushasi
  • #1,884
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:57am Mar 18, 2008 11:57am
Quoting mijamoto
Kosovo's economy is for a long time in reccession. Their primary sector is criminal and they lived from Serbian investing and budget and also by some West donations. Now when they are independent it will be funny to see how long will EU donate to Kosovo and keep 2 milion hungry people. I think Russia wants to make a oil and gas pipeline through serbia which will go also through kosovo and will supply from this Pipeline south-eastern europe and i think it will go to Italia. Some people says there shoul be gold in Kosovo's mountains. I don't know what is the U.S purpose for kosovo i think just to make wars in this region and they can send their soldiers and spend money.

Regards and enjoy your time

P.S what is mushasi
See this. I reminds me a lot of our way of trading

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miyamoto_Musashi
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,885
  • Edited 9:38pm Mar 18, 2008 12:07pm | Edited 9:38pm
Quoting mijamoto
Kosovo's economy is for a long time in reccession. Their primary sector is criminal and they lived from Serbian investing and budget and also by some West donations. Now when they are independent it will be funny to see how long will EU donate to Kosovo and keep 2 milion hungry people. I think Russia wants to make a oil and gas pipeline through serbia which will go also through kosovo and will supply from this Pipeline south-eastern europe and i think it will go to Italia. Some people says there shoul be gold in Kosovo's mountains. I don't know what is the U.S purpose for kosovo i think just to make wars in this region and they can send their soldiers and spend money.

Regards and enjoy your time

P.S what is mushasi

Sorry it is oFF the Topic here:

Very simple: Coridor A8 from Caspian Sea to Kosovo, and A6 from Kosovo to EU (italy) are piplines for OIL...
Who controls the main points, controls the OIL supply to EU..

EU is a very old continent, with technology, but run out with commodities and Energy.. EU has 2 options..

Option #1: to became a very good friend with Russia, and depend from their supply. (the impossible option because the old relations between royal families in EU. BTW Russia reminds me like one old Landlord now collecting only RENT... It is about a time when this is going to became a big conflict between Rusia and EU)

Option#2: to back and support US idea about Kosovo, and get oil from Caspian Sea..

That's why EU is backing US plans for Kosovo...


ENERGY.....
  • #1,886
  • Edited 1:52pm Mar 18, 2008 1:24pm | Edited 1:52pm
"This is an important fighting method for one man against many. Strike down the
enemies in one quarter, or drive them back, then grasp the timing and attack
further strong points to right and left, as if on a winding mountain path, weighing
up the enemies' disposition. When you know the enemies' level, attack strongly
with no trace of retreating spirit."- Ni To (Two swords) miyamoto m. san

"In strategy your spiritual bearing must not be any different from normal. Both in fighting and in everyday life you should be determined though yin yang.(equilibrium calm)

These things cannot be explained in detail. From one thing, know ten thousand
things. When you attain the Way of strategy there will not be one thing you
cannot see. You must study hard" - waterbook, miyamoto m. san
  • #1,887
  • Edited 5:17pm Mar 18, 2008 2:10pm | Edited 5:17pm
"There is timing in everything. Timing in strategy cannot be mastered without a
great deal of practice

There is timing in the whole life of the warrior, in his thriving and declining, in his
harmony and discord. Similarly, there is timing in the Way of the merchant, in the
rise and fall of capital. All things entail rising and falling timing. You must be able
to discern this. In strategy there are various timing considerations. From the
outset you must know the applicable timing and the inapplicable timing, and from
among the large and small things and the fast and slow timings find the relevant
timing, first seeing the distance timing and the background timing. This is the
main thing in strategy. It is especially important to know the background timing,
otherwise your strategy will become uncertain.

You win in battles with the timing in the Void born of the timing of cunning by
knowing the enemies' timing, and this using a timing which the enemy does not
expect.
-Do not think dishonestly.
- The Way is in training.
- Become aquainted with every art.
- Know the Ways of all professions.
- Distinguish between gain and loss in worldly matters.
- Develop intuitive judgement and understanding for everything.
- Perceive those things which cannot be seen.
- Pay attention even to trifles.
- Do nothing which is of no use."
-- Nito Ichi Ryu,(two swords one school), miyamoto musashi san, 1645, aka Shinmen Musashi No Kami Fujiwara No Geshin.
  • #1,888
  • Edited 3:14pm Mar 18, 2008 2:27pm | Edited 3:14pm
Quoting fti
"There is timing in everything. Timing in strategy cannot be mastered without a
great deal of practice

There is timing in the whole life of the warrior, in his thriving and declining, in his
harmony and discord. Similarly, there is timing in the Way of the merchant, in the
rise and fall of capital. All things entail rising and falling timing. You must be able
to discern this. In strategy there are various timing considerations. From the
outset you must know the applicable timing and the inapplicable timing, and from
among the large and small things and the fast and slow timings find the relevant
timing, first seeing the distance timing and the background timing. This is the
main thing in strategy. It is especially important to know the background timing,
otherwise your strategy will become uncertain.

You win in battles with the timing in the Void born of the timing of cunning by
knowing the enemies' timing, and this using a timing which the enemy does not
expect.
-Do not think dishonestly.
- The Way is in training.
- Become aquainted with every art.
- Know the Ways of all professions.
- Distinguish between gain and loss in worldly matters.
- Develop intuitive judgement and understanding for everything.
- Perceive those things which cannot be seen.
- Pay attention even to trifles.
- Do nothing which is of no use."
-- Nito Ichi Ryu,(two swords one school), miyamoto m. san

Hi fti,

This is extremely interesting and surely not only trading lessons but life lessons.
Pardon my ignorance could you please elaborate on " It is especially important to know the background timing,
otherwise your strategy will become uncertain."
Is it timing in the past ?

Thanks
ksl
  • #1,889
  • Mar 18, 2008 3:20pm Mar 18, 2008 3:20pm
I suspect that musashi visited Singapore seeking training. There is so much to learn...

did you see the movies made about his life? Did you read Musashi' by Yoshikawa? It is a wonderful novel that I have read many times.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,890
  • Mar 18, 2008 4:43pm Mar 18, 2008 4:43pm
Quoting fti
Do nothing which is of no use.

I like that one. For me it is also knowing what to throw away.

So your latest avatar looks a little older? Perhaps in your 20's?
  • #1,891
  • Mar 18, 2008 5:04pm Mar 18, 2008 5:04pm
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

Never walk alone.mp3

regards
Liverpool fan, Fti?
  • #1,892
  • Mar 18, 2008 8:36pm Mar 18, 2008 8:36pm
Quoting fti
"There is timing in everything. Timing in strategy cannot be mastered without a
great deal of practice

There is timing in the whole life of the warrior, in his thriving and declining, in his
harmony and discord. Similarly, there is timing in the Way of the merchant, in the
rise and fall of capital. All things entail rising and falling timing. You must be able
to discern this. In strategy there are various timing considerations. From the
outset you must know the applicable timing and the inapplicable timing, and from
among the large and small things and the fast and slow timings find the relevant
timing, first seeing the distance timing and the background timing. This is the
main thing in strategy. It is especially important to know the background timing,
otherwise your strategy will become uncertain.

You win in battles with the timing in the Void born of the timing of cunning by
knowing the enemies' timing, and this using a timing which the enemy does not
expect.
-Do not think dishonestly.
- The Way is in training.
- Become aquainted with every art.
- Know the Ways of all professions.
- Distinguish between gain and loss in worldly matters.
- Develop intuitive judgement and understanding for everything.
- Perceive those things which cannot be seen.
- Pay attention even to trifles.
- Do nothing which is of no use."
-- Nito Ichi Ryu,(two swords one school), miyamoto musashi san, 1645, aka Shinmen Musashi No Kami Fujiwara No Geshin.
Book of 5 rings?

If my history is correct Miyamoto Musashi was one of the greatest Kendo, martial artist. If i'm not mistaken later in life he abandoned the sword and fought with a stick and still remained undefeated.
  • #1,893
  • Mar 18, 2008 9:01pm Mar 18, 2008 9:01pm
Quoting auxesis
Book of 5 rings?

If my history is correct Miyamoto Musashi was one of the greatest Kendo, martial artist. If i'm not mistaken later in life he abandoned the sword and fought with a stick and still remained undefeated.
Yes, he was/is the model of the master samurai. Book of 5 rings? I think I should re-read it. Although I keep loving the AOW and I just discussed it with my wife...What a wonderful book!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,894
  • Mar 19, 2008 4:12am Mar 19, 2008 4:12am
FTI:
Today was great for me, i'm 3% up of equity

But On monday I made terrible mistake
I enter market where I'm not supposed
Rescue team was sent not in right time
So after two mistakes I could not manage myself to cut losses ASAP
So i was stuck for 3 days
Yesterday teams helped a little, I was really careful,
So only today I could attack in full

FTI:
Thank you for encouraging to fight
But as far as I understood, It's better to surrender when We see that hourly and daily against us.
Could you elaborate on this again
Sorry...

And Thank you for your teachings
I'm learning not so fast but it is processsssss;-)
What i found that for me is much simpler to use attack sequence than rescue, if i'm on rescue mode it looks like I made fundamental mistake (i'm against trend and i need full courage to get out properly and within reasonable time)
it's o'k to win ...
  • #1,895
  • Mar 19, 2008 4:24am Mar 19, 2008 4:24am
Quoting zenseven
FTI:
Today was great for me, i'm 3% up of equity
>>> 3 %? That is too much. I means more than 15 % a week. Are you really overexposed? Remember FTI's rule No 1. "Protect your book"

But On monday I made terrible mistake
I enter market where I'm not supposed
>>>Not supposed. I believe that we do not suppose anything during our dance. What is your supposition?

Rescue team was sent not in right time
So after two mistakes I could not manage myself to cut losses ASAP
>>>Cut losses ASAP? We fight without quarter. Is it because you were overexposed?

So i was stuck for 3 days
>>>We do not trade overnight.

Yesterday teams helped a little, I was really careful,
So only today I could attack in full

FTI:
Thank you for encouraging to fight
But as far as I understood, It's better to surrender when We see that hourly and daily against us.
>>>Surrender? Oh my...Oh my...Never never never. AOR say that the military is a matter of survival...

Could you elaborate on this again
Sorry...

And Thank you for your teachings
I'm learning not so fast but it is processsssss;-)
What i found that for me is much simpler to use attack sequence than rescue, if i'm on rescue mode it looks like I made fundamental mistake (i'm against trend and i need full courage to get out properly and within reasonable time)
zenseven, I do not have the FTI's wisdom. But in my little understanding of his teachings, I think that you are not following it. Are you sure? What are you doing?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,896
  • Mar 19, 2008 4:52am Mar 19, 2008 4:52am
Yes, I think you are right, maybe, I'm overexposed
But i'm becoming overexposed only when I attack
I do not risk more than 3% of depo with 2 troops
While I attack it can be 12 troops
But in most case i go 1+1+2 it is enough to get 1% per day.
Usually my target is 1% per day


>>>Not supposed. I believe that we do not suppose anything during our dance. What is your supposition?

I agree but I supposed to watch dance of market, but I did not.
I did not dance, i did not feel dance that time

>>>Cut losses ASAP? We fight without quarter. Is it because you were overexposed?
 It was much simpler, It was total mistake, i was not in dance.
I was not overexposed it was 0,5% of depo at the end of the day, but in 6 hours i did not detect any possibility to contrattack

>>>We do not trade overnight.
Yes, you are right It was second mistake, but I had one assumption
about rates, it was stupid, but finally it could take me out.
But it was not
Finally I snowballed in direction of initial trades with 12 troops, when i saw price action in my favour
Yesterday I slept when there were opportunities to attack

So I agree Babysitting is key, But when battle is relatively small it is better to surrender because when general is tired, battle would end worser
it's o'k to win ...
  • #1,897
  • Mar 19, 2008 5:10am Mar 19, 2008 5:10am
Quoting zenseven
FTI:
Today was great for me, i'm 3% up of equity

But On monday I made terrible mistake
I enter market where I'm not supposed
Rescue team was sent not in right time
So after two mistakes I could not manage myself to cut losses ASAP
So i was stuck for 3 days
Yesterday teams helped a little, I was really careful,
So only today I could attack in full

FTI:
Thank you for encouraging to fight
But as far as I understood, It's better to surrender when We see that hourly and daily against us.
Could you elaborate on this again
Sorry...

And Thank you for your teachings
I'm learning not so fast but it is processsssss;-)
What i found that for me is much simpler to use attack sequence than rescue, if i'm on rescue mode it looks like I made fundamental mistake (i'm against trend and i need full courage to get out properly and within reasonable time)
Hi zenseven,

I am happy for you, that you came out alright.
The fact that you could, impliment rescue, and then further attack, meant that you probably had MM well.
That, as well that the 3rd day timing, probably saved you. So you must remember to time you rescues well, is the lesson that it should teach you, remember it.
Then move on, the next battle will be different, and more lessons will be learnt.If you remember to hold to good MM, you will have good chance to survival, in the markets.

"full courage"as you have learned is a prerequisite for living. Be mindful of swiming against the tide.

regards
  • #1,898
  • Edited 7:04am Mar 19, 2008 5:53am | Edited 7:04am
Quoting luSan
Yes, he was/is the model of the master samurai. Book of 5 rings? I think I should re-read it. Although I keep loving the AOW and I just discussed it with my wife...What a wonderful book!
To be accurate, he was ronin, but master (ni to) swordsman.

What a dream, training the masses has been for me.

regards
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Impossible Dream_001.zip   841 KB | 1,018 downloads
  • #1,899
  • Mar 19, 2008 6:03am Mar 19, 2008 6:03am
Hi fti, you mentioned you would at times leave small positions open overnight. Can you explain the MO for these positions? If in profit, do you lock it in?
  • #1,900
  • Edited 6:52am Mar 19, 2008 6:06am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting Zoran
Hi fti, you mentioned you would at times leave small positions open overnight. Can you explain the MO for these positions? If in profit, do you lock it in?
It doesn't matter what I do, Its what you would do,and "the void" you carry within you, that determines your survival.

"small" is relative to book limit.

"All men can see the tactics whereby I conquer,
but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved."--Sun Zi
82 traders viewing now