Can someone help me decipher the below picture

Hi there,

I am David again. Spring from the brink of death and hopeless to ask you seniors and mentors to help me decipher the below picture which I had capture from a free commodity chart website.

The color red represent the commercial traders which are the smart money and the blue represent fund managers. This is the US dollar index which is a representative of the forex futures.

My question is the numbers of the commercial traders are long which is 31605 circle in blue more then short which is 21776 circle is green. Does it mean that the smart money are going for long the Dollar? And in the short term we should long the US dollar?

Thank you for taking the time to read this.
David

Only because the big players are NET Long does not mean the price should go up. Most commercial players buy a currency to hedge their transactions when they sell overseas. Also you'd have to trade the Weekly Chart beacuse COT only comes out once a week.

So it boils down to fundamentals on the US right now then??? What about this? The 2 pictures are always in contrast. Which one should we follow?

Open Interst is another story.
You can get the NET Positions quite easy.
Here is a cart with the NET Posistions.

http://www.shatterfield.com/images/cot.netpos.gif

Even though commercials are LONG price falls.

http://www.shatterfield.com/
This website will answer all your questions regarding COT.

did you use the cot as a guide to judge your position? How come no one in the FF talks about the COT? What is the flaw in using it as a guide?

I hold my positions from 15 min to 1 hours. No need for COT stuff.
As I said if you trade the weekly chart than you should consider cot reports.
But no one does trade the weekly