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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #69,461
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:33am Mar 18, 2008 11:33am
Funky price action going on now. 2 doji's on last 2 hour candles. RSI below 50 and Momentum 10 are flat but candles opening above 4 Hr GANN.
  • #69,462
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:35am Mar 18, 2008 11:35am
good box formation on 15min chart over last 2 half hours. gona have to break soon, but which way...hmmmm
  • #69,463
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:42am Mar 18, 2008 11:42am
Quoting Genics
prediction for price move when the rate is anounced? bear or bull
If US cut the rate by .50%, USD may rise. But, if they cut it by .75%-100% USD will CRASH!
God is good
  • #69,464
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:42am Mar 18, 2008 11:42am
what effect will that have on geppy then? sorry im not to good at working out the x currency pairs
  • #69,465
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:44am Mar 18, 2008 11:44am
The pair seems want to explode to the upside but gets smacked down so far. I can see there is plenty of opportunities we can trade after the announcement
  • #69,466
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:51am Mar 18, 2008 11:51am
Quoting mktjong
The pair seems want to explode to the upside but gets smacked down so far. I can see there is plenty of opportunities we can trade after the announcement
when the announcment come out?
  • #69,467
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:52am Mar 18, 2008 11:52am
Quoting warta
when the announcment come out?
About 1 hour 25 minutes 2:15 EST (New York)
  • #69,468
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:55am Mar 18, 2008 11:55am
just to share my chart. maybe ranginess before news will be around 199 and 198.5

http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/6748/19marchcl3.png
  • #69,469
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:57am Mar 18, 2008 11:57am
Quoting drewg
About 1 hour 25 minutes 2:15 EST (New York)

cheers mate
  • #69,470
  • Mar 18, 2008 11:59am Mar 18, 2008 11:59am
If Daily closes above 198.34 then we could see Daily R2 but needs to get past weekley pivot first if not then say hello to new lows again. JMO I could be dead wrong maybe Q can put some analysis
  • #69,471
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:02pm Mar 18, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting MEKUS
If US cut the rate by .50%, USD may rise. But, if they cut it by .75%-100% USD will CRASH!
I think .75 is priced in already.

More lies in what Bonehead, err Bernake says......
  • #69,472
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:02pm Mar 18, 2008 12:02pm
Most probably, GJ will follow the trend of GU. Unless UJ breaks out to the downside.
God is good
  • #69,473
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:08pm Mar 18, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting kujo17
I think .75 is priced in already.

More lies in what Bonehead, err Bernake says......
Am not in contention. But Bernake is ready to nail the DOLLAR; Since he doesn't care about inflation any more?
God is good
  • #69,474
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:15pm Mar 18, 2008 12:15pm
The last time the Feds came out with the interest rate statement it was on target with predictions. So many thought, “GBP/JPY to the moon!!!!!!” I have to admit, I wondered myself. But what happened was 50 pips or so up on an initial spike after the report and then it fell about 300 pips over the next few hours. I believe the reason for this is a turn in market trading. At least it seems like a turn or a departure from what has happened in the past to me.
Maybe it's just that retail traders are doing a better job of aligning themselves with the big money. I don't know but whatever the reason I see traders buying on expectation and selling on facts. (or Vice Versa depending on the currency) "buy the Rumor Sell the news"
So the night before the report or up to a few days before (such as Euro & Pound before NFP last month and the month before) you may see a mini trend in the direction of market expectation.
But to buy into that expectation after the report has not been working out so good as there seems to be an initial spike and then take profit equals big reversal.
SO what do I do with all this? Simple.
First I acknowledge no one has a crystal ball and sometimes the market does crazy things
That is why God invented the Stop loss. But I would fully expect IF IF IF the feds proceed on mission with a 75 basis point cut then I would look for a 50-75 pip spike in the GBP/JPY followed by a little sideways action followed by sell-off.
I feel my view is further supported by the fact that there was a 300 pip rally in the GBP/JPY and a 150 Pip rally in the GBP/USD last night. So if I make a play at all on this interest rate statement I would be looking for an entry on a sell off following the report IF IF IF it is the expected 75 point basis point cut.
The wildcard would be if the cut was more or less than expected. Then I would probably just stand aside and re-evaluate the markets tonight.
Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered
So my mantra is; Be a pig!

Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #69,475
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:20pm Mar 18, 2008 12:20pm
Long from 1hr 5-sma with tight stop.
  • #69,476
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:22pm Mar 18, 2008 12:22pm
Man, this beast is actually attempting to close the gap in less than a day. This is really something. I was already all out at 198.60 because it was getting close to the 50 fib and major news is nearing. I won't be taking any new positions until frakhurt or pre-frankhurt.
  • #69,477
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:24pm Mar 18, 2008 12:24pm
Quoting GodfreyH
Long from 1hr 5-sma with tight stop.
I have been long all morning from 197 area, now the question is do I lock in the pips or wait to see what is announced?
  • #69,478
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:27pm Mar 18, 2008 12:27pm
Quoting drewg
I have been long all morning from 197 area, now the question is do I lock in the pips or wait to see what is announced?
Place a reasonable trailing stop if you are not sure
  • #69,479
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:27pm Mar 18, 2008 12:27pm
i am long and not complaining for getting money

but...


who the hell keep buying n buying n buying n buying GJ ??????
  • #69,480
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:28pm Mar 18, 2008 12:28pm
Quoting GodfreyH
Long from 1hr 5-sma with tight stop.
I'm expecting to see a lot of profit-taking before the news came out.
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