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Wall Street close watch

  • #341
  • Edited 6:57am Mar 18, 2008 6:41am | Edited 6:57am
Not sure where to put this and I know it's old news, but - this might explain to some why the BOJ hasn't been pumping the YEN out madly.

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/quotes/tx...tent_98310.htm

IMHO very interesting, as it means that regardless of the unwind-unwind, we have a natural appreciation of the CNY and JPY happening, simply due to their twin like nature and China still having a rampaging double digit inflation it has now begun to counteract.

I suspect this is also the other half of the reason most of the crosses-"drive" has been through USDJPY(the other half is quite simply the demise of the USD).


I find this very interesting and it makes me more confident that not only is 92.5 feasible, but that long term 80 isn't out of the picture(charted something to that end when we reached 100).

It also means we may have a more "natural" reason thrown in as to why the asian currencies might be allowed to gain more strength one way or the other. Old news as I said(this has been a thing of the last 2 years imho), but it makes it clearer to me why nobody has stepped in yet realizing this again.

More current - see also http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...c1w&refer=home
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #342
  • Mar 18, 2008 8:46am Mar 18, 2008 8:46am
Seeking.

After this irrational euphoria pop on the UJ we're going to see a marked depreciation, your links give a good macro background as to why. Thanks for posting that.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #343
  • Mar 18, 2008 9:05am Mar 18, 2008 9:05am
Quoting DutchTrader
After this irrational euphoria pop on the UJ
Probably just profit taking ahead of FOMC decision.
  • #344
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:37am Mar 18, 2008 10:37am
Quoting fierceman
Probably just profit taking ahead of FOMC decision.
IMHO it was this s/r to blame(parallel to 152 EJ, 192.5 GJ, 97.5 CJ), question is whether the 100-101ish 'roof' will contain the current price range. If not, then ouch.

Stocks are staging a rampant rally atm as the attempt at a new low came with massive divergence and therefore seems to have lacked momentum.

So...relief for a few hours? Days? Weeks? Is it all over and has the Fed won?

Any opinions?
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #345
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:39am Mar 18, 2008 10:39am
Quoting SeekingLight
IMHO it was this s/r to blame(parallel to 152 EJ, 192.5 GJ, 97.5 CJ), question is whether the 100-101ish 'roof' will contain the current price range. If not, then ouch.

Stocks are staging a rampant rally atm as the attempt at a new low came with massive divergence and therefore seems to have lacked momentum.

So...relief for a few hours? Days? Weeks? Is it all over and has the Fed won?

Any opinions?
Dance with the devil and they will get burned.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #346
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:48am Mar 18, 2008 10:48am
Quoting SeekingLight
IMHO it was this s/r to blame(parallel to 152 EJ, 192.5 GJ, 97.5 CJ), question is whether the 100-101ish 'roof' will contain the current price range. If not, then ouch.

Stocks are staging a rampant rally atm as the attempt at a new low came with massive divergence and therefore seems to have lacked momentum.

So...relief for a few hours? Days? Weeks? Is it all over and has the Fed won?

Any opinions?
No I don't think the Fed has won. Even with a 100bp cut, stock markets might recover a bit, but think of what that does to the USD yield advantage over JPY. At 2%, CHF was a carry trade funding currency, and most people are betting the Fed will eventually go to 1%. This cannot be good for USD/JPY even if stock markets recover (which is itself unlikely) IMO.

I see 100.00 as a good place to start entering further short positions (for a number of reasons) and average it up if we somehow manage to stray above that.
  • #347
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:07pm Mar 18, 2008 12:07pm
I agree with fierceman. Same sentiments over on other threads, the dollar looks rather doomed (at least vs Yen and CHF) right now. I cannot comment on the stock market, but if carry trades soar after a 100bp cut, then seriously, I will not know what to say. 10 min to go, folks. Keep your goggles on. This is going to be un-nice!
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #348
  • Mar 18, 2008 12:21pm Mar 18, 2008 12:21pm
Quoting Plutonite
I agree with fierceman. Same sentiments over on other threads, the dollar looks rather doomed (at least vs Yen and CHF) right now. I cannot comment on the stock market, but if carry trades soar after a 100bp cut, then seriously, I will not know what to say. 10 min to go, folks. Keep your goggles on. This is going to be un-nice!


Forgot about daylight saving. Was wondering whether NY got hit by WMDs or what, nothing was moving. Now I know what Will Smith felt like in I am Legend.

1 hour to go you jokers
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #349
  • Edited 12:35pm Mar 18, 2008 12:35pm | Edited 12:35pm
DJI 500 points off the low, UJ 300, GJ 750(200 retested right now), EJ 400(156 retest).

Enough?

Will the descent begin or will the bears slip?

And - what a coincidence - the levels coincide with only 40 mins to go to the FOMC.

Above or below them, this is the question..bargain shorts or missed super-longs...

Find out in just a few panic-stricken hours!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #350
  • Mar 18, 2008 1:35pm Mar 18, 2008 1:35pm
I can just see Wall St. throwing a tantrum: "BUT DADDY I WANTED THE 100 BPS CUT, NOT THE 75. WHAAAAA!!! I'M GONNA HOLD MY BREATH UNTIL YOU GIVE ME MY 100 BPS CUT."
  • #351
  • Mar 18, 2008 1:42pm Mar 18, 2008 1:42pm
Quoting fierceman
I can just see Wall St. throwing a tantrum: "BUT DADDY I WANTED THE 100 BPS CUT, NOT THE 75. WHAAAAA!!! I'M GONNA HOLD MY BREATH UNTIL YOU GIVE ME MY 100 BPS CUT."
No prob, just let the DJI lose 11750 the next 3 days and it will come faster than you can say crack-cocaine!

Nah, no idea. It's a classic middle ground move..market wanted 100, some dissenters wanted less and nobody really is happy...neither independence nor full catering to market..question to me now is will the boundaries hold(levels mentioned just before).
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #352
  • Mar 18, 2008 2:01pm Mar 18, 2008 2:01pm
Well, there's a new high for today. Guess someone liked it after all!

200 down, 200 up...should I toss a coin or is there some method in the madness?

People knocking at 12300 DJI in a scramble to get higher and smacking the USD higher as well..

Wonder who's gonna win today.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #353
  • Mar 18, 2008 3:04pm Mar 18, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting fierceman
No I don't think the Fed has won.
2 hours later. The USD rallies, as does the stock market; Gold is coming down and the world seems a happier place.

Has Ben managed the impossible or has the marketplace forgotten the two bits where he basically spells the risk for stagflation in two parts(outlook for economic activity has weakened further / Inflation has been elevated)?

Who can put the bear back in the chair?

Parallel to this let me ask the question that will crop up everywhere: is the bottom in? (USDX including UJ and carry + stock market)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #354
  • Mar 19, 2008 1:46am Mar 19, 2008 1:46am
Quoting SeekingLight
2 hours later. The USD rallies, as does the stock market; Gold is coming down and the world seems a happier place.

Has Ben managed the impossible or has the marketplace forgotten the two bits where he basically spells the risk for stagflation in two parts(outlook for economic activity has weakened further / Inflation has been elevated)?

Who can put the bear back in the chair?

Parallel to this let me ask the question that will crop up everywhere: is the bottom in? (USDX including UJ and carry + stock market)
It does look as though the Fed has won the battle... but the war? I would still have to say that the war is not over, and us bears will still get our day.

It will be interesting to see what London makes of it today, but I can see some possible range action coming up in USD/JPY
  • #355
  • Mar 19, 2008 2:38am Mar 19, 2008 2:38am
Check this out...
http://www.thomsonfxhub.com/fxhub/bl..._landed_in_our
Never say never.
  • #356
  • Mar 19, 2008 2:51am Mar 19, 2008 2:51am
Quoting razldazl
Check this out...
http://www.thomsonfxhub.com/fxhub/bl..._landed_in_our
Soul beat ya to it razldazl
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=76270
Carpe Divitiae
  • #357
  • Mar 19, 2008 3:27am Mar 19, 2008 3:27am
Quoting fsiltd
Soul beat ya to it razldazl
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=76270
haha and I thought I was quick on the draw...well definitely worth a second look hehe, take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #358
  • Mar 19, 2008 3:59am Mar 19, 2008 3:59am
Quoting fierceman
It does look as though the Fed has won the battle... but the war? I would still have to say that the war is not over, and us bears will still get our day.

It will be interesting to see what London makes of it today, but I can see some possible range action coming up in USD/JPY
I wonder if they did..

Don't think too much about the questions, I'm just trying to see whether I can get people to commit to reactive comments and mirror market sentiment to an extent

Mhhh...seems the rally was for the bargain hunting bears after all

Hope everyone managed to stay brave and take their stab at 100+(once again this market makes me wish I didn't need sleep).

I have to say I got a big bit worried as we went around 100 pips "too far" almost everywhere in the crosses(that's the part where you're trying to match up the reality you know to be true in your head with what's happening with the market), but stuck to the plan...let's see if we can annihilate the rally in just as much time as we ran up or whether it is indeed ranging time now..UJ is 270 off the high, GJ down 600.

Crazy.

So, new lows coming or consolidation(is everything clear or do we need some sort of resolve again first)?
USD rampage over and more pain to come? What's what fellow traders? Opinions! =)

P.S. Since we're posting comedy: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...y-central.html

P.P.S. How fast BB goes from "Stock market shares surge" etc pp to:
* Dollar Falls on Speculation Housing Slump Will Swell Credit-Market Losses
* Bernanke Confounds Calls for Deeper Reduction Without Rattling Investors
* Treasuries Rise on Speculation Subprime Losses Will Widen, Economy to Slow
* Clinton, McCain, Obama Leave Fed Alone as Wall Street Embraces Rescue Nets

will never cease to amaze me. They even contradict their opinion WITHIN the breaking news lineup. Doesn't get any better folks. Not only does the economy happen day to day there, but it and Wall Street also is both a broken and a fixed wheel. Go figure.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #359
  • Mar 19, 2008 11:54am Mar 19, 2008 11:54am
I love when a funnyass take over CNBC's headlines

"Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s stock is at a 52-week high on Wall Street --- with the exception perhaps of Bear Stearns, which appears to be selling him short."

  • #360
  • Mar 19, 2008 8:54pm Mar 19, 2008 8:54pm
http://forexfactory.com/news.php?do=...1p#post1913477
Something worth noting in light of the YEN / YUAN stuff, although new lows get made every other day.

Considering Bloomberg is stating a 80%+ correlation with the JPY, this is a currency I watch alongside.

We've basically fallen in a straight line since the last 12+ months(but untradeable due to swap - you end up basically almost nothing above break even).
Trust price. Know yourself.
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