The Ultimate B.S Journal

Well, after much battering by various folk, I've decided to start a journo here too. (and it may keep me trouncing around in other's threads too you never know...). Also, I thought I would sneak it in stupid hours on Saturday morning, so hopefully it won't get spotted too soon. Low enough volatility on posts/readers to maybe push it just out of sight before Monday.

Firstly and foremostly, sorry BWR for the name, I hope you didn't copyright the first one . It's one of my favourite threads on FF, so I drew inspiration...

Right, I'm not going to give you the War 'n Peace intro, but I'll try a brief overview.

I've been trading for quite some time, about 13 years give or take a few.
This is my 5th live year trading the forex.
I don't know what kind of trader I am. The whole day-, swing-, position- thing urks me a bit, but that's for another day.
All I do know is how I trade, so for all intensive purposes of having a cool label too, I'll say I'm a Retracement Trader.

I don't trade every day, but sure wish I could, and am getting closer to being able to. I'm benefiting more and more from OPL nevermind OPM, so that day is drawing ever near. Which is another reason for this. I find myself with enough time to actually keep two journals, although, I doubt this will be a patch on my off-line one...maybe some day.

I love trading. So my "outlook" may seem short most of the time, but it really isn't. The reason I mention this is because, IMO, if you trade long(er)-term positions, you are stepping into the realms of being an "investor", not a "trader", again, debate for another day.
Another reason is because, whether I'm right or not, the only way I seem to have been profitable in the first place, and been able to stay profitable is not due to large account size, large positions or anything like that. It has been due to sheer volume of trades (and MM goes without saying obviously). I'm not getting into the whole "the spread will kill you eventually" argument over that statement either.
I am in a position where I have a properly capitalised account to "daytrade" if I want to, so I do.

I don't have any real system. I trade totally discretionary. That does not mean I don't have a plan, which is more of a plan of action btw, than hard 'n fast rules. A bit of Red/Amber/Green analysis on things. (nothing wrong with a bit or RAG-analysis in life)

I have pieced together from what I've learned. So if you see any of your "work" in here, apologies for the obvious plagiarism, but hey, maybe you shouldn't have made your stuff so good in the first place

I have however been trying to come up with some quirky name or something for what it is that I do, or how I do it rather, something to reflect my trading methodologies...but to no avail... I use Fiboncci principals/concepts a lot, so I thought maybe, Fibonacci Retracement Every Day, or Fibonacci Retracement Easy Daily. I've ended up deciding on just calling my system-no-system F.R.E.D (for more reasons than one ). As it really reflects who I am, and it is me pulling the trigger after all.
So, apply any acronym you like. Even F**king Ridiculous Electronic Device when MSFT:NYSE gets the better of you, as it does.

This is very much just a thinking out loud journo, so if you are new to the industry, I'm sorry, but I doubt you will learn much here.
There are much b(obokus)etter teachers on (james16 P)ForexFactory than I'll ever be(mac), so seek(ing light) them out for yourself. Their work is what kept me even keeled, and turned the dail(list) on my profi(ji)t from negative to positive.

And the fact that it is just that, a thinking out loud journal, feel free to return the trouncing I may have done in your threads, in here.

K then. That's it for now, as the market's closed. Will kick off again as soon as I'm trading.

Good luck on your journal, Love the title

Now stop Bullshitting around and get back to work

Cheers!
So no copyright infringement then?

Nice one to start with I suppose.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6355

Clipped this morning, thank goodness, as I'm out for most of today.

Great start Mr Fred

Kind Regards
Steve

Cheers Steve .
I'm on the sidelines the rest of the day due to customer commitments .
But hey, there's always another day, another opportunity and certainly another trade in this market.

Well, I'm not trading today, but I'm at least able to watch price a bit better now.

If I were able to. I'd probably look to sell this little rally on the sterling crosses (as I'm sure everyone is)

Probably look to start selling again around2.014x'ish on cable, if it gets back up that high. Stop probably around 2.0195'is or more likely 2.020x where I went short this morning in asia the first time.

GJ, will have to wait and see. Nice bounces of -50 of last weeks low and forming a nice range between that and 196.2x, (although last bounce only made it to 195.3x) but nothing clear yet.
Would have waited it out.

Well, never made it to 2.014x. Good thing I stayed out.

Thinking 25-buck silver one of these weeks.
I'll wrap my head around some more in-depth fundie analysis as soon as more time presents itself. Just making a "note to self" here as well for now.

Nothing like a quick e-mail to a trusted source.
Save me the trouble...

"Commodities are entering the next stage of a bull market even as the U.S. appears to be entering recession -- and silver is one of the hottest commodities.

Most investors are agape at the move in crude oil, but it’s only the 12th best-performing commodity so far this year, up 16.58%. Year-to-date, silver is the second best-performing commodity (second only to cocoa), and up 38.67% -- more than double the percentage return in gold.

Going forward, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury seem determined to hammer the value of the dollar -- which is down 35% since President Bush took office -- even lower. Since silver is priced in dollars, as the buck goes down, silver usually goes up.
And when it comes to supply and demand, mine production will probably be pretty flat this year, despite worldwide exploration expenses for on-ferrous metals jumping 33% last year to $9.9 billion.

Years of under-investment in demand are widening the supply/demand gap, especially with growing demand from investment funds that hold physical silver, like the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). According to Lehman Brothers, silver held in funds traded on stock exchanges account for a fifth of annual demand. As of February 25, these funds held 5,449 metric tons of silver. That’s 192,207,819 ounces.

Finally, the chart shows silver breaking out of a bull flag. Our technical analysis gives a target of $23-$26. Maybe it’s a good time to buy."

Sterling put up a bit of a fight giving up 1.9994.
Now that it's gone, start looking for pullbacks/resistance retracements from that level, with potential targets of:

Lean Pips @ 1.9965 - 1.9950
Stable Pips @ 1.9947 - 1.9935
Fat Pips @ 1.9918 - 1.9899
Greedy Bugger @ 1.9894 - 1.9865
Gluttonous B*stard @ 1.979x

Bit of "indicator manipulation" going on with those bounces on the short-term chart, in what looks like a mock attempt to walk the fibs up...
Not quite falling for it yet though...

Is that GJ 4h going to be in inside bar?

Keep an eye on it.

Hope I can trade more tomorrow.

:
Just re-read my dodgy intro, and realised, this is actually the 1-st quarter of my 6th year live.
Where does the time go 'eh?

Missed Asia's opening range.
Out again today.
I hate "working" ...
Might trade via phone a bit if I can. Let's see, what am I thinking of 18/03 so far.

From the crappy charts I have to work with in front of me atm:

GU: had a nice pop back up early GMT to around 2.004x. Still looking southbound. Still thinking yesterday's numbers. It could try and make a little rebound/run all the way up to around 2.007x, even 2.008x. But I'm still bearish and will sell down anywhere from those levels. Check price movement (PA) for confirmation.

GJ: not much movement overnight/early morn. Also still looking southbound. I reckon if 193 or possibly 192.5x goes, I can get into some selling. It may try a run back up to 195, 195.5x, even 196. Will look to get short from around there if PA looks tradable. Else wait for initial thoughts of 192.5x/193 to go.

Note to self: Re-Read this again later to sanity check.

What relation does this journal have to the Ultimate BS thread?

Nothing whatsoever. I like the other thread, so drew inspiration from the name.
It says so in my first post.

It's just my BS journal. As I talk a lot of BS I've been told ;-], so I thought it applicable.

Hhhmmmm, trying to gain more ground before the FED decision than I anticipated.
CPI / Core CPI not had much effect.

Note to self: Remember DutchTraders definition of the news lately :-P

Lesson for today.
Don't speculate on the market when:

1. You can't really concentrate on it.
2. Fed rate cut day

Can't wait to get the hell outta here in an hour so I can get home and trade the rate-cut.
{The mrs. and kids will have to just miss me today}:

UMMM.

Don't tell me your NOT expecting one... ... or am I not following you?

Is it the way I've worded something again?

FOMC Interest Rate decision day, better? ;-]

You said, Don't speculate on rate cut days and then go on to say I can't wait to trade the rate cut Don't worry, I know what you mean.