Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting luSan

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Amazing!
Any way, fti we are here. My sucess rate after incorporating whatever I understand of your method is +90 %. Before your teaching, I did not undertand a thing about the 5M and my target was 10 pips/da, today because of the little understanding I learned, I am confidet that 30 to 100 pips per day within the hour is possible. But who cares!

What I mean? ...I mean that I am grateful of your teaching.

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Quoting fti

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Hi Jairo,
Thank you, for your kind words.
I do not believe that any questions are foolish, just that some traders may be misled in mindset and find difficulty to realign to see the truth. I note your insistence to believe that the methodology I presented could be successfully modified to cater for term trading. This is very far from the truth, because the strength in the methodology is in its ability to troubleshoot quickly when not in sync with the markets flow.When such is transposed to daily time frame, the practise become dangerous, as the trader is unable to sync quickly to correct he err. This is because on such time scope, the non reactive response by the trader incurrs slippage. If you can appreciate that the volatility on a singular 5 min bar can be up to 50 to 300 pips in an extreme environment, you must appreciate that the the volatility AND slippage on a day scope would be much larger. And it is my belief that traders do not have the capitalisation , nor the stomach for that kind of risk. That is in, trading outright exposure, letting alone snowballing risk with high gearing, as this MO requires.

I do not have figures to tell what the success rate of traders are, when they trade such time trame, but I can atest that all the traders of whom I had the opportunity to meet (doing that) have failed in such endevours. I have drawn my conclusion based on that , concluding that , it is not the prudent way. Not withstanding , the having experienced my methodology, for the numbers of years I was at the banks.

If you believe there is validity in your modifications and that it may be successful, please by all means, go ahead and prove it to your complete satisfaction.

You sighted Warren B's modus operandi, and I would like to high light to you, that as you so mention, he is an investor. Therefore he operates with a different MO. You seem confused with the differences between trading and investing. If I may be allowed to highlight to you, Mr B does not even trade the stocks market, his MO is in buying and selling companies. In the financial circles, it is known as raiding. Have you ever heard of company raiders?

Although, I can excuse your misinformation due to your indoctrination and education. Please be so kind as to compare apples with apples and not bring forward an orange, siteing that because they are all fruits, that they are the same.

Please do not take my response as disrespectful, It is just that we stand very far apart in doctrine, and from my many years of experience, I can see that you are unaware of your follies.

regards.

PS: Please do not feel other than that I have the utmost respect for Mr Warrant Buffet, a prudent and honest man. One does not become 2nd richest in the world by being careless, but I must point out that he is not within the same platform that forex traders/dealers stands.

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Quoting Jairo

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Hi fti,

As always, thank you for your attention and patience.

According to Forbes, Warren Buffett is the n. 1 now!

When the FED came in with their 200 billion last week, the EUR suddenly plummeted. I had some small positions then. Thanks to the trend I was in profit. I looked at price action and saw a possible big stop hunting approaching. Bought 1/100th of the maximum allowed by my broker (0.09 lots) during the second big dip. I thought of that moment as a panic sell off. There probably is no better moment to buy! I don't remember to have felt any emotion when I hit the buy button. Later I closed the other positions in profit and I am still holding that 0,09 lots position (now for 439 pips profit). Ended up the week +6,4% on equity. Do you think I was crazy and lucky? I think there was logic in my procedure. The market was in very strong hands when I jumped in, imho. Big players don't sell in panic. The small fish heads were being cut off. Am I seeing ghosts?

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Quoting fti

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Hi Jairo,
You seem to be on a streak.
The USD seems to be very weak, with mostly all factors working against it.
The feds will no doubt , be in sometimes to stabilise the devaluation. Thats their job.
Be mindful though, of catching falling knifes.
You got out fine, bookwise, be be mindful that you are not excessively exposed in dangerous maneuvers. But I see that ypou kept it small, for managing. So that's a point up for you.

regards

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Quoting Zoran

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Hi fti

Just a comment about making posts and then removing them. I personally feel you are taking away from this thread when you do that. From the view of those that have just discovered this thread, they will end up missing out and from the view of those that have followed from the beginning (like me) but may not be around at that particular time, may feel left out.

Are you able to make reference to the titles of material you are referring to? That way we have an opportunity to obtain it (however we choose). Otherwise I fear this thread starts to become a bit secretive and discourages active participants and those that stumble upon it.

Just my opinion but you are obviously free to do as you please.

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Quoting sovo1970

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Dear Fti,

However, like Zoran from the above post, I been missing a few of your attached Lessons. If possible, could you post them up again, and let's few newbies, who been missing out of the lessons to obtain them for future use... Thank you all.

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Quoting mijamoto

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...F_g&refer=home

Thats gonna kill the dollar but be aware of such moments because volume will be enormeus and big players like it beacuse they can trade with a larger orders agains trend to kill all sitting ducks

regards

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Quoting fti

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Hi Zoran,
OB in golf stands for "ball out of bounds".
OB in trading orders stands for "Or better"

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Quoting sovo1970

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However, like Zoran from the above post, I been missing a few of your attached Lessons. If possible, could you post them up again, and let's few newbies, who been missing out of the lessons to obtain them for future use... Thank you all.

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Quoting fti

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Hi ALL,
The avatar is me, when I was young.
Now it looks more like my sons.LOL

regards

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Quoting fti

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Hi ALL,
The avatar is me, when I was young.
Now it looks more like my sons.LOL

regards

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Quoting fti

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Hi ALL,
The avatar is me, when I was young.
Now it looks more like my sons.LOL

regards

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Quoting mijamoto

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http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008...all-is-coming/

first time i hear something like this. Today we will see at least 100bps rate cut beacuse bernanke's job is to save foolish banks and not to take care of U.S economy and dollar. In a FED he is just a figure who does everything what people above him say. 100bps rate cut mean a hard attack for dollar valuation in short term and also we can see soon FED's IR at 1% and we will have U.S dollar carry trade. But with this hasty acts fed is also spreading inflation worldwide therefore we have a giant inflation in china which can be fought by increasing interest rates(=higher reminbi) what will hurt China's primary brench: Exporting. When chinese economy will slow down also demand for metals will decrease. I would also add that beranke will loose his bullets soon and at the end of the year when will be masive toxical credits rested U.S economy will went into a huge reccession and he won't be able to cut rates anymore and also inflation will spread beacuse what fed makes today it will be seen after 2-4 quarters. And if we have a infaltion we have to rise interest rates but that hinder consumption,investing and GDP growth and consequently dollar can rise again. 2009 will be bloody year as it was 1909 (100 year cycle). Beni can work only for a zimbabve central bank

regards and i hope i've written something useful

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