I haven't got a clue!

CPI figures are probably the 2nd biggest report after US non-farm payroll. My focus will be on month over month core CPI figure, which is expected at 0.2%. If this number comes out at 0.3% or higher, it would be good for the dollar short term, because it would mean that inflation is still high, despite the flat reading previous month. If the number comes out flat or 0%, it means that inflation has moderated tremendously, second month in a row, so it'll be bad for the dollar. Maybe a 40 pip move.

The Philly Fed Index is expected at 3.0. Philly Fed index is the #1 indicator that's supposed to give timely clues on what the ISM Manufacturing will come out for the month of January, so any significant surprises in the Philly Fed reading can easily move the Euro by 30 pips or more. If the reading comes out at 14 or higher, it would be the highest reading since April of 2005, so it'll be good for the dollar. If the reading comes out at -5 or more negative, it would be the lowest reading in a while, so it'll be bad for the dollar and 30 pips would be my expected target if the trigger is hit.

2947 long exited for 10. Net short again.

Bearish under 1.30 Pivot: 1.3000. 2941 & 293 in sight. The Symmetrical Triangle pattern resistance should favour another leg down.

ST Consolidation; MT Bullish
305 Intraday resistance
3035 Fib projection
3 Intraday pivot point
2959 Last
2941 Intraday support
293 Fib retracement (50%)
2911 Fib retracement (61.8%)

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0118074424.GIF

A bounce off 2939 Pivot : 2929. Targets @ 298 & 2988. The 30-min RSI is approaching a support area. I'm back to neutral 4-4. Open loss $521. Balance $1191

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0118121437.GIF

Because of the dip I'd like to go long again at 2919 but I'm not going to. It cost me pips before but let's see if it helps me this time. It's all about value. I went long at 2946 above and as I liked it then I love it now. 2 shorts now in profit.

But I like being neutral going in to the numbers in an hour. So we'll let them roll or not as the case may be.

20 pips there on 2 with the other 2 at spread. Holding.

2932 short exited for 11. Net long again 4-3.

2 long 1 short with no TP. No SL of course either.

I'll aim to go neutral again before the news so another short is called for. Around 2935 ideally.

Balance $1204 and open loss $530 gives an equity of $674 at this time. A starting balance of $500 on 21st December 2006 means a net profit of $174 now. So I make it 34.8% if I close it all now. It would be 17.4% - nearly your figure - if I'd started with a $1000. I think that's where you were going with your number. Am I wrong anyone? And thanks again for your post Roy.

10 minutes to go and we're at 2927. A few more ticks up and I'll short again.

Still at 2927 so I'm net long going in. 4-3.

2924 hit TP for 15. Showing profit on the other 2 short.

2916 hit TP for 12 and 2915 hit TP for 10. Margin 123% so i need a retrace now. Balance $1246 and open loss $611.

And margin level now 129% with 4 longs all in loss.

Carry on north I trust. I hope. I wish. But I haven't got a clue really. Margin level 133% and open loss $551.

And I promise no poker today. $519 open loss and 139% margin level

Well, I'd be 6 pips up now. I'd still like to go long again now with no TP set. However that would break my rule of being over net 4 open. I'm 4 long at the moment. We'll see. Who likes rules? I don't.

Now open loss $431 and Margin 156%. And I think I'll throw my very small rule book out of the window.