Have I got this the wrong way? | Forex Factory

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Have I got this the wrong way?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 18, 2007 5:54am Jan 18, 2007 5:54am
I thought I'd try to trade the calendar events.
Just now, the USD posted results, better than expected, green on the calendar. My thinking, USD should go up ..... yes? So I went short on the cable. (USD up ... therefore GBP down).

Why did it go up?
"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
  • #2
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:07am Jan 18, 2007 6:07am
Quoting FMillionaire?
I thought I'd try to trade the calendar events.
Just now, the USD posted results, better than expected, green on the calendar. My thinking, USD should go up ..... yes? So I went short on the cable. (USD up ... therefore GBP down).

Why did it go up?
Ha...isn't that just the thing...you didn't get it "wrong", you just didn't get it right...no big deal.

News trading isn't always cut and dry. What it sounds like is that you got caught at the bottom of the move. At the time of the news event, the dollar did get an uptick, and even now spots are lower against the dollar than they were before the release...which means that the news even reacted as expected...

What you didn't get right was the timing of your entry or the expectation of the continuation of the downward pattern. Most news releases are knee-jerk reactions before they reveal the true market sentiment. In this particular case, the market believes the news is dollar positive, but not worthy of a "fall off the cliff". Your position may still end up being right.
  • #3
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:11am Jan 18, 2007 6:11am
Quoting mrmikal
Your position may still end up being right.
Too late ... it stopped out!

Don't worry though. I'm just fantasy trading at the moment ... and learning lots.....At least I should be. They say you learn from your mistakes ... I'm making plenty of those!!!

I thought the idea was to jump on the news quick ... Maybe not.
"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
  • #4
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:25am Jan 18, 2007 6:25am
The reason the price pushed down like that was because there was a lot of buying going on. The big players don't want to move the markets against themselves as they enter, as many will scale in due to large size and liquidity restraints. As the price starts going back up, all the shorts are now liquidating, providing liquidity to those who want to be long, and started buying on the down move. Many big traders know what they're going to do well before the news breaks. This is a vicious, cunning game.
  • #5
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:33am Jan 18, 2007 6:33am
But why did it go up? .... and it's still going up.

Surely, with those announcements at 1330 GMT, it should have gone down. .... or have I got this completely wrong?
"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
  • #6
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:40am Jan 18, 2007 6:40am
Quoting FMillionaire?
But why did it go up? .... and it's still going up.

Surely, with those announcements at 1330 GMT, it should have gone down. .... or have I got this completely wrong?
You are assuming there is a linear and logical cause and effect between economic indicators and price. It's an assumption that is wrong.
  • #7
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:43am Jan 18, 2007 6:43am
Maybe I should stick to the lottery.

At least I'll have a 1:14,000,000 chance of winning .... those odds look better, don't you think?
"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
  • #8
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:45am Jan 18, 2007 6:45am
Quoting FMillionaire?
Maybe I should stick to the lottery.

At least I'll have a 1:14,000,000 chance of winning .... those odds look better, don't you think?
absolutely when you take a gamblers approach to trading... you might want to try black jack better odds
  • #9
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:50am Jan 18, 2007 6:50am
Quoting turbokaos
absolutely when you take a gamblers approach to trading...
I didn't think I did ... but it's beginning to look that way.

I coldly watched the news, and traded logically .... but it seems to defy logic.
"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
  • #10
  • Jan 18, 2007 6:54am Jan 18, 2007 6:54am
I don't mean to be hard but first you must develop a plan (system) test your system become consistent.. then take it live (micro mini) walk your way up the ladder to success.

Take your time set realistic goals

trade smart
  • #11
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:13am Jan 18, 2007 7:13am
I'm still planning.

I've been trying lots of different methods .. with varying success. I've noticed everything gets trashed by news events. ... So I thought I'd try to play them to my advantage. ... but that doesn't seem to work either.

.....there has to be a way.
"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
  • #12
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:15am Jan 18, 2007 7:15am
I'm still planning.

I've been trying all sorts of methods .. with varying degrees of success (but all ultimately losers). I noticed that every methods got trashed by news events, so I decided to try to work that to my advantage .... but that didn't work either.

...... there has to be a way.
"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
  • #13
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:16am Jan 18, 2007 7:16am
Sorry for the duplicate post. The forum crashed, and I didn't think it went through.
"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
  • #14
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:17am Jan 18, 2007 7:17am
I keep getting

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"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
  • #15
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:43am Jan 18, 2007 7:43am
Quoting FMillionaire?
I'm still planning.

I've been trying all sorts of methods .. with varying degrees of success (but all ultimately losers). I noticed that every methods got trashed by news events, so I decided to try to work that to my advantage .... but that didn't work either.

...... there has to be a way.
Well, what did you learn today? You should always try to learn something from losing trades. I suggest you keep a log of news events. Keep track of the known elements, forecast, actual, revisions of prior numbers, long-term and short-term trend of the pair and what your thoughts are.

Then find 2-3 analysts that you can stand reading, and who like to voice opinions on news events and price direction. Keep track of what they say and predict in the log. Try to standardize it for easier analysis.

One last thing you should do is to write out the scenarios for new events in the morning. What do you think will happen if the number is greater, smaller or right on the target. Then, finally, ask yourself this question.

How can the market screw the most amount of people today? Trust me, the majority of traders get screwed everyday. Just like you did today. Don't take it personally, just learn how to be the one doing the screwing.
  • #16
  • Jan 18, 2007 7:50am Jan 18, 2007 7:50am
take a look at Stevie journal he's a new trader... I not suggesting you who his system but take a look how he's approaching the mkt.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=10519
  • #17
  • Jan 18, 2007 11:00am Jan 18, 2007 11:00am
Quoting Dopey
Well, what did you learn today?
Not to trade the news?

.... I don't know. It was my first attempt at that method. I may 'play' a little, before I dismiss it.

I'm still getting a feel for trading. I'll get there in the end.
"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
  • #18
  • Jan 18, 2007 11:02am Jan 18, 2007 11:02am
Quoting turbokaos
take a look at Stevie journal he's a new trader... I not suggesting you who his system but take a look how he's approaching the mkt.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=10519
I had a quick look. Very interesting. I think I need to go and have a longer read.

I think it would make more sense, if a journal was more logically laid out ... on a spreadsheet, or something similar ... rather than a "dear diary" sort of affair.
"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
  • #19
  • Jan 18, 2007 11:26am Jan 18, 2007 11:26am
Quoting FMillionaire?
I had a quick look. Very interesting. I think I need to go and have a longer read.

I think it would make more sense, if a journal was more logically laid out ... on a spreadsheet, or something similar ... rather than a "dear diary" sort of affair.
It's not there to teach people how to trade... it's to keep a journal of ones progress just like you would in a diary.

I was just simply pointing out you might be able to pick up some good pointers from his since he is more less starting from scratch
  • #20
  • Jan 18, 2007 12:06pm Jan 18, 2007 12:06pm
Quoting turbokaos
It's not there to teach people how to trade... it's to keep a journal of ones progress just like you would in a diary.

I was just simply pointing out you might be able to pick up some good pointers from his since he is more less starting from scratch
I'm sure I will.

I was only suggesting it could be laid out in a more easily digested fashion.

..... I may even try one myself. Then people might be able to tell me where I'm going wrong .... then as a lesson to others... when I get it right
"To learn to succeed, you must first learn to fail." - Michael Jordan
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