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How low can it go?

  • #41
  • Mar 15, 2008 1:02am Mar 15, 2008 1:02am
[quote=highway;1893020] I am expecting the USD-CHF to go to 0.9600 area - GBP-CHF to 1.9900 area - while other majors might not apreciate as much against the USD.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=53441&page=2

quote]

My projection a few posts earlier remains unchanged. On another thread of mine on the Dow, we might see a slight alteration. When I posted it, some in my chatroom commented that I was nuts! LOL.
Seems we are heading there.
  • #42
  • Mar 15, 2008 1:14am Mar 15, 2008 1:14am
Quoting Ash
The uglier, the better. As far as the rumor about the Central Banks intervening to shore up the dollar, imvho, it will not be happening anytime soon. It would be illogical as investors / traders would most certainly sell on the $ rallies / buy on the dips.
I am with you. Intervention will only slow down the process not abort it. Just like DOW equity traders who had been selling at each rally back up, Forex traders are selling USD each time it makes some gains.
The futures and indexes are better to trade these days - depending on which side you are.
I was talking to someone the other day trading the Hang Seng. Just a few hours on a M5 chart with 50 pips stop. Hang Seng dropped 2200 points !!
  • #43
  • Mar 16, 2008 7:39pm Mar 16, 2008 7:39pm
Quoting SeekingLight
How do you feel about 0.9750 USDCHF?
50 pips to go. 0.98 just reached.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #44
  • Mar 16, 2008 8:39pm Mar 16, 2008 8:39pm
Given that we just hit 0.975x...

How do you feel about 0.95?

Just asking!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #45
  • Mar 16, 2008 9:26pm Mar 16, 2008 9:26pm
Rate cut over the weekend.... how efficient will this market be??? Instantaneous reaction? Spread over the next weeks?

BTW: Parity doesn't mean 1:1.... it means buying power of both countries is equal.... could be 1:1, but not very likely.

Interesting idea to go long, but chaos and randomness rule the FX markets.... maybe you will flip your coin and get lucky.


PS) Bear Stearns was bought for $2/share by JP Morgan after being valued at $30/share a week ago. That might keep the psychology of the bankers in a bear for awhile more. Just thinking out loud.
  • #46
  • Mar 16, 2008 9:34pm Mar 16, 2008 9:34pm
[quote=highway;1904737]
Quoting highway
I am expecting the USD-CHF to go to 0.9600 area - GBP-CHF to 1.9900 area - while other majors might not apreciate as much against the USD.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=53441&page=2

quote]

Seems we are heading there.

USD-CHF at 0.9600 area ----- 0.9636 just reached
GBP-CHF at 1.9900 area -----1.9500 even further

TP and reversed both positions
  • #47
  • Mar 16, 2008 9:42pm Mar 16, 2008 9:42pm
[quote=highway;1906693]
Quoting highway


USD-CHF at 0.9600 area ----- 0.9636 just reached
GBP-CHF at 1.9900 area -----1.9500 even further

TP and reversed both positions
Stops moved to break even.
That was fast
  • #48
  • Mar 16, 2008 10:45pm Mar 16, 2008 10:45pm
[quote=highway;1906725]
Quoting highway

Stops moved to break even.
That was fast
Expecting some important information coming out in one hour and 10 minutes. GMT 4h45.
Meanwhile taking a nap. Trailing my position with 50 pips stops
  • #49
  • Mar 18, 2008 10:39pm Mar 18, 2008 10:39pm
Interest point, smjones. With near neutral swap, a long right now with a 2500 pip stopout might be a great long term play. The long would give a tiny carry payment each day to boot.

Perhaps the cash in would be around 1.25. I could see averaging down into this trade too.... definitely from a long term perspective, the bet is that the dollar eventually strengthens.

Of course, the risk is that Latino influx into America could push us to the Amero if things don't improve. I don't really know what to make of it, but I try to have faith in America's resilience to the strong Euro competition and Chinese economic strength.

Quoting smjones
The USDCHF is interesting, because the two currencies are actually nearly interest neutral. So this pair really shows the driving forces in the dollar.
  • #50
  • Mar 23, 2008 10:39pm Mar 23, 2008 10:39pm
I'm a bit confused about this
  • #51
  • Mar 26, 2008 10:33am Mar 26, 2008 10:33am
Attached Image
  • #52
  • Mar 26, 2008 11:06am Mar 26, 2008 11:06am
Quoting im7i4z
Nice chart, it seems the dollar wants to fall all the way to the basement.
Just Trade It
  • #53
  • Mar 26, 2008 4:43pm Mar 26, 2008 4:43pm
Yeah... too bad I didn't take this trade. Did put full position on EUR/USD instead which seemed like a better position to take based on certain euro fundies.
  • #54
  • Mar 26, 2008 7:35pm Mar 26, 2008 7:35pm
I would like to know what is going to cause it to move up?
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #55
  • Mar 27, 2008 10:29am Mar 27, 2008 10:29am
Quoting bunton
I would like to know what is going to cause it to move up?

The formation of the Amero? Maybe?
Just Trade It
  • #56
  • Mar 27, 2008 10:32am Mar 27, 2008 10:32am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
The formation of the Amero? Maybe?

*groans*
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #57
  • Mar 28, 2008 6:08am Mar 28, 2008 6:08am
Quoting SeekingLight
*groans*


*sighs*
Just Trade It
  • #58
  • Apr 2, 2008 1:28am Apr 2, 2008 1:28am
So is this the bottom? Gold and oil are dropping, Wall St. sentiment seems to think the worst is over. Money coming out of the safe havens to buy a really cheap dollar. This seems more of a sentiment rally and that is what matters most, even more than fundamentals. But I'm playing it as a suckers rally being very cautious. Wait and see.......
Just Trade It
  • #59
  • Last Post: Apr 3, 2008 8:03am Apr 3, 2008 8:03am
The water balloon just got busted with unemployment claims. Boom!
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