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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,801
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:59am Mar 14, 2008 9:59am
I am doing what you said me! This hour i reread Lucky57 post and thought about it and i just make a comment. Thats true i want to come in brokerage house but i think they will put me for some administrative work (like typing some numbers and facts on computer and to send mails) but if you want to progress in any job you have to start from a bottom. I am not DEMO trading now for a 2 weeks beacuse i was whole day in schools and i am studying right now about international trade and stuff which you sended me. I am aware when you get a bad habits it's imposible to remove them
  • #1,802
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:02am Mar 14, 2008 10:02am
Quoting mijamoto
I am doing what you said me! This hour i reread Lucky57 post and thought about it and i just make a comment. Thats true i want to come in brokerage house but i think they will put me for some administrative work (like typing some numbers and facts on computer and to send mails) but if you want to progress in any job you have to start from a bottom. I am not DEMO trading now for a 2 weeks beacuse i was whole day in schools and i am studying right now about international trade and stuff which you sended me. I am aware when you get a bad habits it's imposible to remove them
Then what about , the you lost 50 usd today stuff?
or did you mean last time?
Don't preconceive what they wnat you to do , its like trying to predict market. Just get the job, see how the people trade and the mistakes they make. Watch out for good traders, and how they trade, compare whats their MO. In short LEARN. and save money for capital.
If you are posted to back office ops, then learn how they clear trades, the processing of trades , how its done... there so much to learn.

When you are ready, only then make your mark in the market.Ok buddy?

regards
  • #1,803
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:05am Mar 14, 2008 10:05am
Sorry! I expressed myself wrongly. It's a lil bit hard when english is not your mother language and you use phrases which have a different meaning in english. I wanted to say that in my whole life i lost 50 USD on one microacount and that was half a year ago
  • #1,804
  • Edited 10:53am Mar 14, 2008 10:17am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting mijamoto
Sorry! I expressed myself wrongly. It's a lil bit hard when english is not your mother language and you use phrases which have a different meaning in english. I wanted to say that in my whole life i lost 50 USD on one microacount and that was half a year ago
@ mijamoto,
So sorry buddy, my bad.
I just realised.
yeah, sometimes I tend to misread.
Sorry again.

It was good that you read that posting by Lucky57, he is well read.
It was nice of you to comment.

regards

Moreover when you are at the brokerage, you may bump on to big traders. If you were so lucky to meet up with people like Richard Dennis and were training turtles, it may just shoot you to the big time. If you are hardworking and possesses dealer attributes, which I believe you have, and tough and honest. You never know what opportunities may come your way in life.
I was able to become what I became, because someone gave me the opportunity, when I was young. In life you'll never know. When you are near people who are doing what you like to do, when you find a door open for you, alot of things can happen for you, Remember you are young, there's lots of opportunities open.

"Before Heaven gives a person high responsibilities, he will be tested to the bone before it is bestowed upon him."--Confucious
  • #1,805
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:28am Mar 14, 2008 11:28am
Hi All,

Just wanted to wish everyone a great weekend and to say thanks to Fti for some more great posts this week....I am done for the week and even pulled off a good dance today despite my two left feet, to end the week with a good attack and encouraging results on the books, wish the same for everyone.

A good week for me to reflect on a few points:

AOW qoute:
The Art of War by Sun Tzu

Thus we may know that there are five essentials for
victory:
(1) He will win who knows when to fight and
when not to fight.
[Chang Yu says: If he can fight, he advances and takes
the offensive; if he cannot fight, he retreats and remains on
the defensive. He will invariably conquer who knows whether
it is right to take the offensive or the defensive.]
(2) He will win who knows how to handle both
superior and inferior forces.
[This is not merely the general's ability to estimate
numbers correctly, as Li Ch`uan and others make out. Chang
Yu expounds the saying more satisfactorily: "By applying the
art of war, it is possible with a lesser force to defeat a
greater, and vice versa. The secret lies in an eye for locality,
and in not letting the right moment slip. Thus Wu Tzu says:
'With a superior force, make for easy ground; with an inferior
one, make for difficult ground.'"]
(3) He will win whose army is animated by the same
spirit throughout all its ranks.
(4) He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take
the enemy unprepared.
(5) He will win who has military capacity and is not
interfered with by the sovereign.



As well as Ky...Polarity...
Whenever my shorts went long due to bad timing, somewhere in there was a short to every long. Patience paid well.

Cheers,
NP
  • #1,806
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:58am Mar 14, 2008 11:58am
Hi Northpro,
Nice work, have a good weekend.

regards
  • #1,807
  • Mar 14, 2008 12:12pm Mar 14, 2008 12:12pm
Well it's not like a big brokerage house but a smaller one in slovenia which have some funds and invest only in stocks. But it can be a good starting point at least to learn something new about this job. regards
  • #1,808
  • Mar 14, 2008 6:42pm Mar 14, 2008 6:42pm
Quoting fti
Hi Northpro,
Nice work, have a good weekend.

regards
Nice weekend all!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,809
  • Edited 7:01pm Mar 14, 2008 6:58pm | Edited 7:01pm
Quote
(1) He will win who knows when to fight and
when not to fight.


It was also placed at position 1 by Sun Tzu, for very good reason.
Carpe Divitiae
  • #1,810
  • Mar 15, 2008 10:09am Mar 15, 2008 10:09am
The FED really scared me this week: banks and hedge funds are falling and the FED is getting into holding debts. Crazy!

I would like to find a protection for my hard saved cash. I want a lot of money out from the dollar but I do not want to trade it...Remember I am in training..

My options

1. Physical gold

2. Open an account and buy a currency with 1:1 leverage. If so, which currency should I buy? EUR, NZD, CAN, AUS? Which is the best currency to protect our non-trading cash? China currency?

3. Do nothing and ride the crazy dollar to hell...

Any advise will be appreciated?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,811
  • Mar 15, 2008 12:40pm Mar 15, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting luSan
I would like to find a protection for my hard saved cash. I want a lot of money out from the dollar but I do not want to trade it...
Hi LuSan,

My $0.0001: not trading at all is also a trading decision.... There is no "safe" asset, in or outside the markets, imho. So I am always ready to face The Beast. At present, I am long EUR, but ready to revert or switch again and again... (or stay out, which is a trading decision, too).
  • #1,812
  • Mar 15, 2008 1:11pm Mar 15, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting Jairo
Hi LuSan,

My $0.0001: not trading at all is also a trading decision.... There is no "safe" asset, in or outside the markets, imho. So I am always ready to face The Beast. At present, I am long EUR, but ready to revert or switch again and again... (or stay out, which is a trading decision, too).
What a mess! Trading is unavoidable. But you talk about position trading and this is not my MO.

I just wanted to park the money some place. That place does not really exist. So gold is a better idea for you?

My situation? I guess I am long on the dollar. Why? My 401K and my other savings...and I see those dropping with the exception of some gold and oil etf.

I wonder what other are doing about it. Open for advise.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,813
  • Mar 15, 2008 2:21pm Mar 15, 2008 2:21pm
Hei...I just learned something new... You could do position trade within your 401K account by trading:

FXE -- Euro etf fund
FxA -- Australia etf fund
FXF -- CHF etf fund

If so, I think I could move some $$$ into it and forget about for a while.

Am I missing something?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,814
  • Mar 15, 2008 4:22pm Mar 15, 2008 4:22pm
Quoting luSan
What a mess! Trading is unavoidable. But you talk about position trading and this is not my MO.

I just wanted to park the money some place. That place does not really exist. So gold is a better idea for you?

My situation? I guess I am long on the dollar. Why? My 401K and my other savings...and I see those dropping with the exception of some gold and oil etf.

I wonder what other are doing about it. Open for advise.
When you "park" your money you are position trading, right? According to this concept, I am "parked" at a USD account but I am free to convert it to any currency available, either long or short and to undo or revert that position at any time. So nothing special here.

I am too dumb to follow a large number of options, so I decided to concentrate on one: the most liquid pair in the most liquid market. Gold has been sky rocketing recently (just like eur...) (?). Sorry not to be able to suggest any safe parking to your money. Though I am holding eur, I am ready to change this at any moment if I find it right. I think that holding anything for very long periods demands good fundamentals and tons of patience.

Think I was of no help at all... Good trading.
  • #1,815
  • Mar 16, 2008 10:56am Mar 16, 2008 10:56am
Quoting luSan
What about that we have trouble with attack because we are greedy? Look I just made 20 pips with my scout..so..when should I send more troops out?...maybe I should wait...you see, I am winning 20 pips...I do not want to lose it...so we wait and wait...pa keep going up...Now I am 30 pips and winning...maybe I should wait a little bit more...etc.

Flip the coin...in rescue we have fear in front of us...we are losing..damn it..we must do somethin...Ah...we get angry...our ego are damage...so we are more proned to triger away the rescue troop...let send 3 out...quick before it is too late.

What I mean? It is just psychology...
Hi Lusan

I agree that we need to get the psychology right but it is that of a General and commander. I get the impression that when you say the scout is losing you are trading as a scout. As a general, I would not consider it losing but more as damage. We should expect damage and when it occurs our plan is to recover by sending in more troops (of which we should have plenty at our disposal).
  • #1,816
  • Mar 16, 2008 11:18am Mar 16, 2008 11:18am
Hi fti

Just a comment about making posts and then removing them. I personally feel you are taking away from this thread when you do that. From the view of those that have just discovered this thread, they will end up missing out and from the view of those that have followed from the beginning (like me) but may not be around at that particular time, may feel left out.

Are you able to make reference to the titles of material you are referring to? That way we have an opportunity to obtain it (however we choose). Otherwise I fear this thread starts to become a bit secretive and discourages active participants and those that stumble upon it.

Just my opinion but you are obviously free to do as you please.
  • #1,817
  • Mar 16, 2008 11:33am Mar 16, 2008 11:33am
Quoting luSan
What about that we have trouble with attack because we are greedy? Look I just made 20 pips with my scout..so..when should I send more troops out?...maybe I should wait...you see, I am winning 20 pips...I do not want to lose it...so we wait and wait...pa keep going up...Now I am 30 pips and winning...maybe I should wait a little bit more...etc.

Flip the coin...in rescue we have fear in front of us...we are losing..damn it..we must do somethin...Ah...we get angry...our ego are damage...so we are more proned to triger away the rescue troop...let send 3 out...quick before it is too late.

What I mean? It is just psychology...
That's exactly when the big picture comes in. Your scout is winning. If there is a trend in place, you may simply wait or add up. I think it is better to only add after a bounce back. The trend is your friend. You can build a large position doing this. But there must be a clear trend in play. I know nothing better than position trading in clearly trending markets (if somebody knows, I am open to it). Theoretically, picking market turns could give better results, but it tends not to work (we never know when the market will turn and it is not necessary to know). The rescue technique is excellent in sideways and obscure markets but may become very dangerous when a trend takes place. Just my half pip...
  • #1,818
  • Mar 16, 2008 11:51am Mar 16, 2008 11:51am
Quoting Zoran
Hi Lusan

I agree that we need to get the psychology right but it is that of a General and commander. I get the impression that when you say the scout is losing you are trading as a scout. As a general, I would not consider it losing but more as damage. We should expect damage and when it occurs our plan is to recover by sending in more troops (of which we should have plenty at our disposal).
scout losing or damage---semantic...I do not expect anything....For me the scout is JUST a way to get into what I call the "trading mind." A way of focusing my awareness and energy into the battlefield...You know, I jump from bed at 4:00 am and within 10 min I need to decide the play for the hour...long, short or wait...

I was describing the line of thought going on my mind during trading... I am not talking about getting the psychology right.... I believe that there is a right of trading for each of us where the trader and the market dance together...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,819
  • Mar 16, 2008 12:07pm Mar 16, 2008 12:07pm
Quoting Jairo
That's exactly when the big picture comes in. Your scout is winning. If there is a trend in place, you may simply wait or add up. I think it is better to only add after a bounce back. The trend is your friend. You can build a large position doing this. But there must be a clear trend in play. I know nothing better than position trading in clearly trending markets (if somebody knows, I am open to it). Theoretically, picking market turns could give better results, but it tends not to work (we never know when the market will turn and it is not necessary to know). The rescue technique is excellent in sideways and obscure markets but may become very dangerous when a trend takes place. Just my half pip...
See my previous response...My way of trading does not expect for trends to develop..I try to dance any music that the market play for me within my time constrains. What trend do you refer to? the day, hour, 15M or 5M? Sometimes the are not in sync. I play the 5M trend and I am happy when the 15M and the 1H are alighment with it. Then the war is less stormy and with fewer risks.

Clear trend? Nope. there is not need of clear trend for me...Actually I like it better when there is no trend at all and the volatility is very high. Why?...I dance every single 5M bar...and high volatiliy is fantastic. My ideal PA is when everything is just random noise. I would sell the rallies and buy the falls; I would dance against everybody....This is not what other people do...I have no time to wait..

rescue on trend...you are correct...this is very tough...I've been there and it is nerve breaking...but then...I learned that 5M trend never last more than 1 hour without a reversal...so there is always hope...wait for that reversal, go with 9 or 20 troops, bring the scout, repeat, repeat and repeat to break even..and celebrate...Please see my journal entries for examples of my crazy dance...

Now...where should I park my money?...I am inclined to go for the Aus or EUR...Any advise?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,820
  • Mar 16, 2008 12:48pm Mar 16, 2008 12:48pm
Quoting luSan
Clear trend? Nope. there is not need of clear trend for me...Actually I like it better when there is no trend at all and the volatility is very high. Why?...I dance every single 5M bar...and high volatiliy is fantastic. My ideal PA is when everything is just random noise. I would sell the rallies and buy the falls; I would dance against everybody....This is not what other people do...I have no time to wait..
You are correct. Your MO is ideal for chaotic markets, just like you describe. I have tried that but maybe I am a bit old to make this my main MO... . I keep record of my results not in pips but in % on equity. I had a lot of 0.0x or 0.xx% gains until a very hard battle through the night ended up at -4,94% loss. Back to behind the starting point. God let it never happen to you.

Now the psychological side. I do prefer to see the money grow by itself in a trend with near zero stress. If there is no trend, then ok, let's fight the short moves. If I only traded the shortest time frames probably I would find it very hard to see the opportunities the trend offers.

Good trading.

P.S.: answering to your question: I look at all time frames, from 1 minute to monthly.
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