moving the market 5 pips (split) | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

My Fix Plan: SL 20 pips & TP 5 pips 4 replies

Percentage vs. Pips per Trade vs. Pips per Day/Hour! 7 replies

Flappy Pips - How to keep your hard earn PIPS 7 replies

I lose 40 pips and win 6 to 10 pips... 17 replies

spread on GBP/JPY @ alpari is 12 pips intead of 7 pips they claimed to be 6 replies

Attachments: moving the market 5 pips (split)
Exit Attachments

moving the market 5 pips (split)

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 24, 2005 1:26am Jul 24, 2005 1:26am
Quoting merlin
you let your inlaws visit?? LOL. not me

do you even remember which book it is in? im really interested in finding the quote now, because i may be remembering something that i didnt read. i am rereading NMWs right now, maybe i will run across it in there..



good argument.

this is a bit unrelated, but last night i was thinking about how to make a mechanical system based on fundamental analysis. for instance, its incredibly easy to make money with a mechanical system if you know what kind of market to expect. some systems work well in bull markets, some in bear markets. what if you decided, maybe at the begining of the month, that fundamentals point to a higher dollar by the end of the month. you would take that fundamental analysis based decision, and implement your dollar bullish mechanical strategy. if the dollar ends up going down, chances are you wouldnt enter many trades because your mechanical system would only buy when prices are rising. if you were right about the market direction just about 60% of the time, this could significantly increase return.

you may wonder why a quant like myself is considering using fundamental decisions for trading. well, over the years, i feel like i am now predicting market direction fairly accurately. not so well that i could trade outright fundamentals, but enough so i could improve the returns of my mechanical systems.



i agree this happens in many many markets. but i dont think it does in Forex. thats one of the reasons i love Forex so much. the market is just too big for any person's bluff or faking to affect the price (other than the central banks). wouldnt you agree?
How niave. Pick any time of evening on west coast time, some day in the middle of next week. The Eur/USD market, because it is the largest volume, and theoretically the most difficult to manipulate. You choose whether or not you want it to go up or down for at least 5 pips and I will make it happen.

Patrick
  • #2
  • Jul 24, 2005 2:08am Jul 24, 2005 2:08am
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
How niave. Pick any time of evening on west coast time, some day in the middle of next week. The Eur/USD market, because it is the largest volume, and theoretically the most difficult to manipulate. You choose whether or not you want it to go up or down for at least 5 pips and I will make it happen.

Patrick
well we at least know now where all the money is on this forum.
  • #3
  • Jul 24, 2005 6:55am Jul 24, 2005 6:55am
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
How niave. Pick any time of evening on west coast time, some day in the middle of next week. The Eur/USD market, because it is the largest volume, and theoretically the most difficult to manipulate. You choose whether or not you want it to go up or down for at least 5 pips and I will make it happen.

Patrick
This is a very bold statement. It would be fun to test this out. We could become quite rich just scalping that way if it is a sure thing.

FT
  • #4
  • Jul 25, 2005 3:47am Jul 25, 2005 3:47am
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
How niave. Pick any time of evening on west coast time, some day in the middle of next week. The Eur/USD market, because it is the largest volume, and theoretically the most difficult to manipulate. You choose whether or not you want it to go up or down for at least 5 pips and I will make it happen.

Patrick
LOL!!!!

either you are joking, or you are the biggest trader i know. if the latter, then i choose wednesday, at 6pm EST. i want it to go up
Relax and be happy.
  • #5
  • Jul 25, 2005 4:21am Jul 25, 2005 4:21am
Quoting merlin
LOL!!!!

either you are joking, or you are the biggest trader i know. if the latter, then i choose wednesday, at 6pm EST. i want it to go up
If you noticed, I asked for it to be during the evening, west coast time, as I sleep days and trade nights. So how about Wed 9 pm west coast, or midnight EST? Or, if you prefer, Thurs at 3am west coast, which is 6am EST?
  • #6
  • Jul 25, 2005 4:23am Jul 25, 2005 4:23am
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
If you noticed, I asked for it to be during the evening, west coast time, as I sleep days and trade nights. So how about Wed 9 pm west coast, or midnight EST? Or, if you prefer, Thurs at 3am west coast, which is 6am EST?
lets go with wednesday, midnight EST. that is high volume time though, i was choosing 6pm so you had it easier

how many lots will it take you to move it 5 pips?

why am i starting to sound like i believe you can really do this?
Relax and be happy.
  • #7
  • Jul 25, 2005 4:44am Jul 25, 2005 4:44am
[quote=merlin]
Quote
yeah, some of these bank traders make millions "front running" (putting their order in front of the big order). here in the US markets that is illegal and unethical, but in forex it is perfectly legal and widely accepted.

Close but normally it isn't front running but piggy backing. At least that is what my buddy in PNG tells me. They don't jump in front because, though it isn't illegal, it isn't good manners and tends to give the wrong impression. It isn't that easy to keep secrets within the banking community. However if the banks trade includes some of their own position and they happen to slip out of it before the effect is over -- no harm done. Also combining an order doesn't really attract much attention like front running does.

Quote
true, but im talking about half fundamental and half quantitative (as apposed to technical). i havent heard many people talk about that. if you picture an automated strategy as a robot that you set free to operate on its own, this approach i am talking about is like using certain robots when im fundamentally bullish, and using other robots when i am fundamentally bearish. as opposed to using technicals to support my fundamental view and vica versa.
I understood that but I was only speaking in general terms. In the wizards books they were not specific enough to nail down actual techniques. All I know is that it is not uncommon for some traders to have a fundamental position and use technical trading for entries and exits. It doesn't sound a lot different than what you are describing. Perhaps I've misunderstood you but it seems pretty clear.

Quote
LOL. i guess your right, greenspan is a trader. but he is considered part of the central bank so i had them covered. i know what your saying about manipulation causing sustained trends, like when people jump on board a rumor about a big trader being long etc. remember Bruce Kovner from market wizards? the forex guy? well he talks about this exact situations, where he says he actually causes 2 and 3 day trends. but he is the biggest forex trader in the world (outside central banks) so there are not hundreds of guys like that that we have to worry about.
No argument there. I think the mm's go after the little guys with algorithms like I described in another post. Why not automate the stop hunting when it is so expensive to do it manually?

Quote
even with low liquidity i dont think she's moveable....unless you are bruce or alan.
Perhaps but FXCM is quite large as far as mm's go and they get nervous about taking dealing station trades over 10m during certain hours. There are plenty individual traders that trade between 10m and 20m. I spoke at length with FXCM about dealing station or auto trades in excess of 10m and they indicated that during off market hours they would not take the bigger trades with auto entry or by dealing station and explained that even during the Asian session they had trouble with some of the more liquid pairs.

FT
  • #8
  • Jul 25, 2005 5:13am Jul 25, 2005 5:13am
Quoting merlin
lets go with wednesday, midnight EST. that is high volume time though, i was choosing 6pm so you had it easier

how many lots will it take you to move it 5 pips?

why am i starting to sound like i believe you can really do this?
I cannot say how I will do it. However, I would like to prove my point. You must realize, if I am right, and it moves up at exactly that time, it could be just coincidence. So we will have to do it several times for you to be convinced. You should allow me a reasonable percentage. So how about if I get it right 70% of the time, and you pick the direction and time, within the time frame (9pm-3 am pacific coast time)?

Patrick
  • #9
  • Jul 25, 2005 5:36am Jul 25, 2005 5:36am
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
I cannot say how I will do it. However, I would like to prove my point. You must realize, if I am right, and it moves up at exactly that time, it could be just coincidence. So we will have to do it several times for you to be convinced. You should allow me a reasonable percentage. So how about if I get it right 70% of the time, and you pick the direction and time, within the time frame (9pm-3 am pacific coast time)?

Patrick
are you going to place some big orders or something? then pull them before they are filled??? not that it would matter, it would be equally as impossible to do it that way

if you can move it 5 pips, how come you cant move it 10? that would be more exciting to see, but id be satisfied with 5 pips. 70% right would take too large a sample size to determine if you are really causing the move. id like to see 3 for 3
Relax and be happy.
  • #10
  • Jul 25, 2005 7:19am Jul 25, 2005 7:19am
Quoting merlin
are you going to place some big orders or something? then pull them before they are filled??? not that it would matter, it would be equally as impossible to do it that way

if you can move it 5 pips, how come you cant move it 10? that would be more exciting to see, but id be satisfied with 5 pips. 70% right would take too large a sample size to determine if you are really causing the move. id like to see 3 for 3
Why not do this by telephone? That way there is less liklihood of a coincidence. You get on the line. Someone gives Patrick the word... in the next 30 seconds or less the market moves 5 pips in a specified direction. Then you can call it and it will take far fewer times in order to be right. Also this seems kind of hokey since there is frequently 5 pip differences from one MM to another. If you have significant trading experience Pat you know that whatever 5 pip move you can influence one part of the market with is not necessarily even reflected in all places. This sounds more like a game of illusion than anything real.

If you'd specified a particular mm then you could easily have someone on the inside. If you are saying you can move the market at all mm's regardless of who we are watching then you are just playing games. You'd have to specify the exact second and we'd all have to be using the same time clock to detect a specific move. Otherwise the liklihood of any market moving 5 pips one way or the other is normal market breathing and you are bound to be right at least 70 percent of the time.

Also to be a useful test we'd have to agree at what price the market was at just before you claim to be moving it and then we could measure whether it moved 5 pips off that price within so many seconds after we agree at what price the market is at. Otherwise there is no proof whatsoever that you have anything to do with moving the market that cannot be attributed to normal fluctuation.

FT
  • #11
  • Jul 26, 2005 12:28am Jul 26, 2005 12:28am
Quoting fijitrader
Why not do this by telephone? That way there is less liklihood of a coincidence. You get on the line. Someone gives Patrick the word... in the next 30 seconds or less the market moves 5 pips in a specified direction. Then you can call it and it will take far fewer times in order to be right. Also this seems kind of hokey since there is frequently 5 pip differences from one MM to another. If you have significant trading experience Pat you know that whatever 5 pip move you can influence one part of the market with is not necessarily even reflected in all places. This sounds more like a game of illusion than anything real.

If you'd specified a particular mm then you could easily have someone on the inside. If you are saying you can move the market at all mm's regardless of who we are watching then you are just playing games. You'd have to specify the exact second and we'd all have to be using the same time clock to detect a specific move. Otherwise the liklihood of any market moving 5 pips one way or the other is normal market breathing and you are bound to be right at least 70 percent of the time.

Also to be a useful test we'd have to agree at what price the market was at just before you claim to be moving it and then we could measure whether it moved 5 pips off that price within so many seconds after we agree at what price the market is at. Otherwise there is no proof whatsoever that you have anything to do with moving the market that cannot be attributed to normal fluctuation.

FT
First, if you think it is just luck or chance, let's see you make the same claim. You make it go up or down on command, using someone else's direction 70% of the time. Sure.

As far as by phone, I have no objections. It does not matter how the time frame is called. As far as the market participation. The move will be 5 points, and it will start with my broker. The others will follow, but it might take them a little time. The 5 pips will not necessarily be consecutive, but I will make the market move up or down 5 pips within a short period of time. Like 10 minutes. If anyone else seems to think they can make this claim, brinng it on. My point is that manipulation in a small way can be done in order to make scalping unprofitable. And I can prove it happens during most of the sessions. If you really want to see 10 points, let's go with the USD/CAD. That market is much thinner and much easier to manipulate. It is also a much slower market. 10 points might take 20 minutes, but it will not be random. If you say up, 10 minutes later it will be up. Anyone else who can make that claim? Especially if the indicators and trends look like the market will go in the opposite direction? I will show you real honest manipulation, so you can know for sure it exists.
  • #12
  • Jul 26, 2005 12:46am Jul 26, 2005 12:46am
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
First, if you think it is just luck or chance, let's see you make the same claim. You make it go up or down on command, using someone else's direction 70% of the time. Sure.

As far as by phone, I have no objections. It does not matter how the time frame is called. As far as the market participation. The move will be 5 points, and it will start with my broker. The others will follow, but it might take them a little time. The 5 pips will not necessarily be consecutive, but I will make the market move up or down 5 pips within a short period of time. Like 10 minutes. If anyone else seems to think they can make this claim, brinng it on. My point is that manipulation in a small way can be done in order to make scalping unprofitable. And I can prove it happens during most of the sessions. If you really want to see 10 points, let's go with the USD/CAD. That market is much thinner and much easier to manipulate. It is also a much slower market. 10 points might take 20 minutes, but it will not be random. If you say up, 10 minutes later it will be up. Anyone else who can make that claim? Especially if the indicators and trends look like the market will go in the opposite direction? I will show you real honest manipulation, so you can know for sure it exists.
i keep waiting for this guy to blink and he aint doin it. your trippin me out dude, i aint sayin much but i am sure as hell watching.
  • #13
  • Jul 26, 2005 2:39am Jul 26, 2005 2:39am
Quoting Patrick_Rhodes
First, if you think it is just luck or chance, let's see you make the same claim. You make it go up or down on command, using someone else's direction 70% of the time. Sure.
I don't think I meant luck or chance what I was referring to is probability. I have not bothered to examine the probability of a currency pair breathing 5 pips in both directions within a 10 minute period. Without actually checking this out, if someone bet me money that the market does not breath 5 pips either direction within a 10 minute period for 70 percent of the time, I would not take that bet. Why? Because I think the probability is greater that most markets do breath that much 70 percent of the time during specified trading hours. As for the USD/CAD it does move slower but it is constantly back and forth. It is always retracing on itself by more than 5 pips.

I'm not saying that you cannot move the market nor am I saying that you can. I've learned the many things people think are not likely -- are nonetheless possible. However I've learned to construct tests that eliminate biases cause by existing probabilities in order to discover true anomalies. So far the issue to me is not whether anyone else makes a specific claim, such as yours, but how they go about proving it. Nobody else I know is making this claim.

Nonetheless I recall you posting elsewhere on this forum that all you have to do to move the market is place trades with tight stops and the market will move to eat your trade. You cited this as proof of manipulation by MM's gunning for your pips. Maybe this is true but it is also very likely to be coincidental. There are other possibilities that could greatly increase the probability of such conincidence... such as your system or method of identifying entry signals happening to be close to stop clusters that do attract market pricing.

Anyway don't get the idea that I either disbelieve or believe you. I am neutral at this point but if you believe you can prove this... I'd love to see something I'd consider proof -- rather than highly circumstantial evidence -- of what you claim.

FT
  • #14
  • Jul 27, 2005 12:30pm Jul 27, 2005 12:30pm
Quoting fijitrader
I don't think I meant luck or chance what I was referring to is probability. I have not bothered to examine the probability of a currency pair breathing 5 pips in both directions within a 10 minute period. Without actually checking this out, if someone bet me money that the market does not breath 5 pips either direction within a 10 minute period for 70 percent of the time, I would not take that bet. Why? Because I think the probability is greater that most markets do breath that much 70 percent of the time during specified trading hours. As for the USD/CAD it does move slower but it is constantly back and forth. It is always retracing on itself by more than 5 pips.

I'm not saying that you cannot move the market nor am I saying that you can. I've learned the many things people think are not likely -- are nonetheless possible. However I've learned to construct tests that eliminate biases cause by existing probabilities in order to discover true anomalies. So far the issue to me is not whether anyone else makes a specific claim, such as yours, but how they go about proving it. Nobody else I know is making this claim.

Nonetheless I recall you posting elsewhere on this forum that all you have to do to move the market is place trades with tight stops and the market will move to eat your trade. You cited this as proof of manipulation by MM's gunning for your pips. Maybe this is true but it is also very likely to be coincidental. There are other possibilities that could greatly increase the probability of such conincidence... such as your system or method of identifying entry signals happening to be close to stop clusters that do attract market pricing.

Anyway don't get the idea that I either disbelieve or believe you. I am neutral at this point but if you believe you can prove this... I'd love to see something I'd consider proof -- rather than highly circumstantial evidence -- of what you claim.

FT
I understand what you are saying. And I ask myself "why am I bothering with this?" I thought just like you for the first 10 years of my trading. And my brokers kept saying exactly what you are saying. But in the end, my broker who has been in the business (40 years) had to concede. He finally came around and admitted "OK, what you are saying can no longer be merely coincidence." "Coincidence cannot be that biased and that predictible. You've finally convinced me."

In the end, you will believe whatever you want to believe, and there is really not much value in me trying to change that. Certainly, I am not young enough to do it for my ego. So forget the challenge. I am wasting my time.

Just remember David and Goliath. A small stone brought down the Giant.

Patrick
  • #15
  • Jul 27, 2005 2:26pm Jul 27, 2005 2:26pm
If I understand this correctly, your going to open a position and give up the pip spread as well as the movement to prove that MM's move to swallow your position. Adding to the effect, you are doing this at a pre-determined moment which may or may not be against the current market trend or possibly during a break-out.

What I asked myself was...."why did I read this thread?"

This is nothing more than ego show boating. Period.

15 minutes I will never get back
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #16
  • Jul 27, 2005 2:51pm Jul 27, 2005 2:51pm
LOL

ya know what i just realized...

patrick is the same guy who oddly brags about how he "called the CFTC".

hahaha, and to think, i was taking him seriously for a minute there.

Buddha, thank you for that moment of clarity.
Relax and be happy.
  • #17
  • Jul 27, 2005 2:55pm Jul 27, 2005 2:55pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...1&page=2&pp=25

i want to point out that in this thread, where i say there is 6 pips risk free, it is really 3 pips risk free. i forgot about the exit at the second broker.
Relax and be happy.
  • #18
  • Jul 27, 2005 5:50pm Jul 27, 2005 5:50pm
Quoting MuddBuddha
If I understand this correctly, your going to open a position and give up the pip spread as well as the movement to prove that MM's move to swallow your position. Adding to the effect, you are doing this at a pre-determined moment which may or may not be against the current market trend or possibly during a break-out.
He didn't say he'd open a position. Just that he'd move the market. We assume he is talking about opening a position. He says he will not reveal how he does it.

Don't get me wrong I'm not defending him because until his last post I had no basis to make any conclusions because his paramaters were too general to quantify a result. However when I got more specific about creating a worthwhile evaluation he gave up. That is what most people making claims do when you try to find a reasonable way to substantiate them.

Patrick seems to have traded a long time and probably he traded through most times when floor traders were trading against everyone as much as they could and that is how they made a lot of their money. Forex has too much liquidity to easily move it around. I think most likely Patrick's belief has come to observe normal market breathing and view the statistical probability that it will move 5 pips in both directions within a 10 minute period as supporting his belief that his actions are moving the market.

FT
  • #19
  • Jul 27, 2005 6:48pm Jul 27, 2005 6:48pm
I agee with the last post. You can easily observe a slow stochastic indicator and see the "minor" ups and down the market takes as it moves in one trend direction or another.

As a matter of fact, I have noticed that when using different trading platforms that some update in more real time than others. Some look like EKG scans as they jump up and down to the market "breathing" versus others that use an averaging algorithm to steady their pair qoutes.

This discussion has emerged several times about brokers trading against you, MM's influencing the market, dishonest brokers, using jello as a catalyst to the apocalypse, yada, yada, yada.

It has come to the point that newbies to this forum feel there is some type of conspiracy plot against forex traders with brokers determined to trade against them and steal their investment. (I was contacted via IM by one nameless newbie on this forum that repeatedly expressed fear about trading because of that goofy thread)

I can't speak for scalpers - since I don't scalp regularly - but day and swing traders should rely more on good techniques and keen judgement rather than fretting about a broker who may be hedging positions or trading against them.


"Hedge softly, Preston; for you hedge on my dreams"
Attached Image
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #20
  • Jul 27, 2005 8:20pm Jul 27, 2005 8:20pm
Quoting MuddBuddha
As a matter of fact, I have noticed that when using different trading platforms that some update in more real time than others. Some look like EKG scans as they jump up and down to the market "breathing" versus others that use an averaging algorithm to steady their pair qoutes.

I can't speak for scalpers - since I don't scalp regularly - but day and swing traders should rely more on good techniques and keen judgement rather than fretting about a broker who may be hedging positions or trading against them.
I had one of those chart services that supposedly combined the feed from 400 banks. It jumped around constantly. It even presented a few scalping opportunities because the pricing that FXCM was feeding me was clearly smoothed. Mostly the charts would jump a little ahead of fxcm, sometimes, behind, but occasionally they got out of line quite a bit and if I was quick I had instant profit.

I recall when I started trading futures I did not know any of the tricks brokers used. I had to phone all my trades in, had a satellite data feed that cost a lot, and even then it was 15 minute delayed quotes. Brokers could tell me whatever they wanted. I'd just place my orders and hope for the best. Option trading was a nightmare and buying calls or puts was a fast way to waste a lot of money but with limited risk.

So newbies reading this... you are in heaven with this point and click, real time quotes, and extremely limited manipulation capacity. In fact if you could find a way to piggy back the entries and exits of the really large traders you could probably make a lot of money doing just that.

FT
0 traders viewing now