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  • #41
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:52am Mar 14, 2008 10:52am
hi Rocwell yes in both they are in oversold area stoch. its to let you know that. let me explain if these charts showed a uptrend for example by the200ema and 5 &8 emas were crossed and most important the MACD were crossed going up then looking at the stoch. telling you it was oversold then
you would "BUY THE DIPS ON A UPTREND. then you go for it. thanks King Pips
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  • #42
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:56am Mar 14, 2008 10:56am
oh...my bad!!...thanks for the clarification ;-)
  • #43
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:49am Mar 14, 2008 11:49am
Hi All
Thanks for sharing tcmm. There is no point to dispute it guy, let together we work in good team spirit. I'm using the same set up but with standard RSI (instead of MACD).

Can anyone kind enough to code the rule and we can actually test it.

Thanks.
  • #44
  • Mar 14, 2008 12:04pm Mar 14, 2008 12:04pm
The reason macd is used is two things. First they both have to be crossed the same direction, and the macd is good when both are crossed and also you can check for divergence, but the RSI is good for trend strength if you are useing RSI make sure you set it at 13 and put a 50 line 0n it below 50 is a downtrend and above 50 is a uptrend thanks CTNIE2143
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #45
  • Mar 14, 2008 12:20pm Mar 14, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting tcmm
The reason macd is used is two things. First they both have to be crossed the same direction, and the macd is good when both are crossed and also you can check for divergence, but the RSI is good for trend strength if you are useing RSI make sure you set it at 13 and put a 50 line 0n it below 50 is a downtrend and above 50 is a uptrend thanks CTNIE2143
Tcmm,
Agreed and also using RSI (13) will eliminate bad trades most of the time. If anyone of you can prepare automatic trading system based on these or are you aware of available EA that we can improvised.

Thanks
  • #46
  • Mar 14, 2008 12:53pm Mar 14, 2008 12:53pm
This chart has the big dog system lined up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart 3.gif Size: 46 KB
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  • #47
  • Mar 15, 2008 1:20am Mar 15, 2008 1:20am
Look at post#6 for the Rules and post#46 for the charts
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  • #48
  • Mar 15, 2008 2:10pm Mar 15, 2008 2:10pm
This Method lets the market come to you. It prevents whipsaws. If you thing about trading, it is trying to trade at the right time to go in knowing that this will be a trade. Thats what you want to do win not to lose right! So Wait when it comes attack, like a tiger in the bushes.
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #49
  • Mar 15, 2008 7:07pm Mar 15, 2008 7:07pm
IMHO, methods can work profitably for two possible reasons:

1. They are respected and used by enough influential traders ("big dogs"), i.e. if enough of these folk believe that a reversal is likely to occur at a certain point, they will place their orders accordingly, effectively causing the reversal to occur (aka the "self-fulfilling prophecy" concept).

2. They somehow otherwise manage to capture underlying crowd psychology.

The Forex market consists of a diverse number of participants, some with speculative goals, while others (from multinationals to private individuals) are simply seeking to move money between countries, for whatever reason. Because any number of participants may be in the market at any time, and we have no way of knowing their motives, price movement will always appear to have a certain element of randomness about it, even if that’s not actually the case.

I would expect that line studies (prior S/R, Fibo retracements, trendlines, round numbers, etc) have a better chance of meeting the self-fulfilling prophecy idea, than either candle patterns or indicators. Here’s why. Line studies are less vulnerable to timeframe variations, and they don’t take parameters. If price makes a local high on a 4 hourly chart, it will also appear as a high on the relevant hourly, 30 minute, 15 minute, etc bars also. Same logic applies for any Fibo retracement. A round number (e.g. 2.0000) is of course going to be same on every chart. So these are likely to be visible to, and hence used by, a wider number of traders.

Fibo retracements depend only on where the anchor points (0.0, 100.0) are set.

Daily floor trader pivots (PP, S1, R1, etc) are going to be consistent to the extent that traders use the same cut-off point (e.g. midnight New York EST).

Candle patterns (e.g. pin or inside bars) on a 4 hour chart are time zone dependent. Four hour patterns that use GMT+1 as a base are going to be different to those that use GMT+2 as a base, and so on, because they’re gathering different data to build the candle.

Indicators are potentially the most vulnerable of all because:

a) They’re time frame dependent. For example, an EMA(200) on a 15 minute chart plots a vastly different curve, price-wise, to an EMA(200) on an hourly chart, and so on, simply because it uses a completely different data set. Having said this, I suspect that the most commonly used timeframes for catching large intraday moves are M15 and H1.

b) Different traders use different parameters. I’ve seen everything from 5, 10, 20, 25, 30, 50, 100, 150, 200, 365 (plus Fibo numbers like 21, 34, 55, etc) used for MAs. Moreover, some traders prefer to use SMAs, some EMAs, etc. All of these plot completely different curves. For stochastics I’ve seen %K values of 5, 7, 8, 10, 13 and 14 used. I note that MACD(12,20,9) is being recommended here, which is different to the "industry standard" MACD(12,26,9). And so on.

I’m not saying that the original poster is wrong. If enough "big dogs" respect and use the parameter settings that he is advocating, then these have the potential to herald reversals, for as long as this formula remains industry-accepted. TCMM, perhaps you've worked for a major bank? Could you explain how or where you obtained your information?

The concept of buying dips in uptrends and selling rallies in downtrends is robust enough in principle, but could potentially be achieved using any indicator settings, or in fact without using indicators at all.

Beyond this, I don’t see how curve-fit indicators on their own are capable of predicting underlying market psychology. To whatever extent mechanical systems need occasional re-optimization, supports this view. As has been wisely said elsewhere, "indicators are a symptom, not a cause".

David
  • #50
  • Mar 15, 2008 7:12pm Mar 15, 2008 7:12pm
Quoting tcmm
For Long Term The 200ma Gives You A Trend So If The 200ma Stays In
That Direction On The Daily Charts, And Its The Same On The 1hr And 15 Min And Macd Crosses On Both And 5ma & 8ma Cross
Then Its Good To Go. Try This Now Put A 200ma On A Daily Chart
And You Will See The Trend For A While So You Know The Trend
How do you use the 200ma for trend?
If price below it, trend down? Or do you look at the slope of the 200 ma?

Thank you.
  • #51
  • Mar 15, 2008 7:21pm Mar 15, 2008 7:21pm
As all traders know indicators are LAGGING. SUPPLY AND DEMAND MOVE THE
MARKET HANOVER YOU SHOULD KNOW HOW TO TRADE IF YOU FIGURE THIS OUT
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  • #52
  • Mar 15, 2008 7:47pm Mar 15, 2008 7:47pm
Quoting RickW00716
How do you use the 200ma for trend?
If price below it, trend down? Or do you look at the slope of the 200 ma?

Thank you.
hi rick yes if price is below 200ema its a downtrend
if price is above 200ema its a uptrend
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  • #53
  • Mar 15, 2008 8:22pm Mar 15, 2008 8:22pm
Quoting tcmm
As all traders know indicators are LAGGING. SUPPLY AND DEMAND MOVE THE
MARKET HANOVER YOU SHOULD KNOW HOW TO TRADE IF YOU FIGURE THIS OUT
Agreed. When demand exceeds supply, price rises; and vice versa. If simply knowing this guaranteed consistent profit, we'd all be millionaires.

I guess I'm skeptical – at least initially – whenever somebody throws a few indicators together and promotes it as some kind of newly discovered "secret".

Hence my question: How or where did you obtain this info? Presumably you've worked for, or otherwise had conatct with, some "big dog" major banks?

If my skepticism is in any way unjustified, I apologize.

I'm not trying to make trouble, just trying to understand why these particular indicator settings are more long-term profitable – in the absence of supporting evidence, at least thus far – than all of the hundreds of other entry methods outlined here. Systems come and go on the forum almost as fast as interest rates change.

David
  • #54
  • Mar 15, 2008 8:44pm Mar 15, 2008 8:44pm
The only way will know is to try the big dog trading secret your self like I am
doing then if you want to use you can no charge. If not do what you do best
or what works for you.
I have also been doing News Trading for 3 years and since been doing great,
and we all know for a fact that Economic reports move currencies, but you have to know how to trade them or else don't.


thanks
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #55
  • Mar 15, 2008 9:05pm Mar 15, 2008 9:05pm
Hi Mr Hanover sir. David (if you don't mind), my favourite contributer to these pages.
First things first:
a) its Sat night n I've watched football with a few beers
b) I often write total drivel (even when sober)

I understand your skepticism as I, indeed, have plenty especially when 'new' methods are introduced for, let's face it, we are talking about money - the making and losing of. I always check out new methods on FF and spend a deal of time working them to my own way of trading (except if they use Elliot waves or fibs, which to my mind are in the same category as reading tea leaves). So David, your questions, for me, are valid.

On the other hand, I tend to not delve to deeply into why something is used but spend hours of chart-time checking and re-checking for myself. Personally, I look at the 200 as a line in the sand, so to speak, which, at the present time, decides for me which direction I should trade (+macd). Will it give me an edge? Slightly, yes, I think so. It did well for me last week with small bets.

I like this method but I'll be tweaking it for my own use. Shit, I must sleep. Look forward to more of your posts.
Dave
  • #56
  • Edited 3:54pm Mar 16, 2008 1:36pm | Edited 3:54pm
Lets Summarize, Get the direction of the 200ema on the daily chart
It can be uptrend or downtrend this gives you the
true trend. Also have the Stoch 8-3-3 just to check oversold and overbought only
Then on the 1hr and 15 min. Check that the 200ema are
the same direction too.
So lets say that the 200ema on both charts are down.
The 5ema and 8ema have to be crossed down.
Then the MACD on one chart is crossed down
You then wait when the MACD on the other chart crosses
over.
Once that happens you are good to trade.
Check also if there's MACD DIVERGENCE TO PRICE
very powerful if there is. Go to google check it out
how it works.
Also be careful during News releases don't trade.
I am a News Trader also, so I know.
You can pickup 15,20,25 pips depends on you
Good to do during 2am to 11am market time.
This method the trade comes to you.
You can also see with this method that while you are
waiting for this method to happen you can see how
it wipesaw before it happens.
BUY THE DIPS IN A UPTREND AND SELLTHE RALLIES IN A DOWNTREND

POST #59 SHOWS CHART SAMPLE
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #57
  • Mar 16, 2008 2:33pm Mar 16, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting tcmm
Lets Summarize, Get the direction of the 200ema on the daily chart
It can be uptrend or downtrend this gives you the
true trend. Also have the Stoch 8-3-3 just to check oversold and overbought only
Then on the 1hr and 15 min. Check that the 200ema are
the same direction too.
So lets say that the 200ema on both charts are down.
The 5ema and 8ema have to be crossed down.
Then the MACD on one chart is crossed down
You then wait when the MACD on the other chart crosses
over.
Once that happens you are good to trade.
Check also if there's MACD DIVERGENCE TO PRICE
very powerful if there is. Go to google check it out
how it works.
Also be careful during News releases don't trade.
I am a News Trader also, so I know.
You can pickup 15,20,25 pips depends on you
Good to do during 2am to 11am market time.
This method the trade comes to you.
You can also see with this method that while you are
waiting for this method to happen you can see how
it wipesaw before it happens.
BUY THE DIPS IN A UPTREND AND SELLTHE RALLIES IN A DOWNTREND

POST #46 SHOWS CHART SAMPLE
So when all trend indicators point in one direction on both charts you take the trade at the moment this happens on the 15 min. chart?
  • #58
  • Mar 16, 2008 2:47pm Mar 16, 2008 2:47pm
hi rick it can happen on both For example
-If the 1hr chart all are crossed, Macd usually crosses last, thats what you should look for. Then look at the 15min. to be all crossed with macd last

-If 15min all are crossed, then look at the 1hr chart to see all crossed, macd last.


thanks
My Email For Help: [email protected]
  • #59
  • Mar 16, 2008 3:12pm Mar 16, 2008 3:12pm
here is another chart setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart 4.gif Size: 54 KB
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  • #60
  • Mar 16, 2008 4:19pm Mar 16, 2008 4:19pm
Peter Bain of forexmentor(.com) fame use to be a Big Dog. He to uses 200 ma's to determine direction on daily and weekly plus the lower time frames..

Quoting blueruby
I used to hate arrogant bastards that said things like this, but, here goes.....

Why would you need an MA to tell you the trend? I doubt that the big dogs do, but I could be wrong, I don't know any big dogs.
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