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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #68,441
  • Mar 14, 2008 2:36pm Mar 14, 2008 2:36pm
Quoting mktjong
Have this pair ever moved 1000 pips a day? I can't remember the max of last Summer move in a day.
16th and 17th August last year. You really don't remember that time?
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #68,442
  • Mar 14, 2008 2:37pm Mar 14, 2008 2:37pm
Quoting arezab
I noticed something about this momentum indicator. It is really useless for predicting market future. I know some of those guys are fund of this tool but I've been watching this daily and weekly 10c momentum this week.

10c momentum fans were saying all the time that this week will be very bullish because momentum is pointing up sharply. Now you see that only daily 10c momentum has slightly turned down after 680 pips downfall and weekly mom is still bullish and sharply pointing up

I think it will remain bullish even when we reach 175
I have been following Aus's momentum strategy for sometime now. I have come to the conclusion that it is a mixed bag unless certain conditions are realized.

Firstly, momentums are most accurate when they all (1, 10, 14) point in the same direction . If 10 and 14 are in opposite directions then the predicted direction may be off. You may be right 50% of the time in predicting a retrace then move in the direction of the higher momentum.

Secondly momentums need to be used with the 5-sma channel in mind (5-sma high, close and low). Predictions are made in relation to this channel. For example, if price is below the 5-sma channel, even if all momentums are pointed up, there is no guarantee what the result will be. Now if they were all pointed down, then it would be a practically guaranteed fall.

Thirdly, the shorter the duration in time (within reason), the more accurate. There are way too much events that can change market sentiment in the course of a week, or even in a daily or 12 hr period. I trade 30 min charts using momentums and I can say that every day a trade setup occurs which is practically guaranteed to give you 60-100 pips profits, with minimal risk, but you have to use the momentums in conjunction with other indicators, like qqe, MA's and price action. Not much pips, but the benefits of compounding, As Malcolm often tells us, is an awesome thing.

Momentums should only be used as a general guideline to be confirmed by other indicators or price action.
  • #68,443
  • Mar 14, 2008 2:38pm Mar 14, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting pipsy_2
Could you post ZL Stoch please...

Is it any special indicator ? How to set it up ?
Here ya go. . .
pm me and I'll give u more specifics. . .
But this is best used on 15min/1hr and 4hr. U an use the default setting. Add 0,25/50/75/100 for levels. . . then study what happens at these levels and when you get a cross up or down. Change colors of slow and fast stoch. to taste. . .
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Zerolagstochs.mq4   3 KB | 356 downloads
  • #68,444
  • Mar 14, 2008 2:43pm Mar 14, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting forexpert310
alright ladies time to become BULLISH and join the rest of the crew
U can't be serious =
Watch were this pair closes today, I'm quite sure it won't spell bullish - JMHO based on the TA I'm looking at!
  • #68,445
  • Mar 14, 2008 2:45pm Mar 14, 2008 2:45pm
Quoting quecee5
U can't be serious =
Watch were this pair closes today, I'm quite sure it won't spell bullish - JMHO based on the TA I'm looking at!
im bullish from here to 190s
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  • #68,446
  • Mar 14, 2008 2:53pm Mar 14, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting malcolmb14
good going .. yes finger itchy lol ....

But if you got 35 pips day in day out for the rest of your life ..... watch that account grow !
Agree, the most important is consistent. Honestly, I have trading forex for more than 2 years but still not profit consistently. That is the problem. I am sharpen my skills every day. Hopefully it's getting there.

Yes, even with 35 pips or less daily, the income is awesome and huge. I can retire a lot earlier

Thanks for your posts, I've learned a lot and enjoyed it at the same time. Keep up the good works.
  • #68,447
  • Mar 14, 2008 2:56pm Mar 14, 2008 2:56pm
Quoting arezab
16th and 17th August last year. You really don't remember that time?
Ok, I think I remember it now. It also was the biggest pips gain in my life. I made around +500 pips of this pair that day. It was really historic ..really
  • #68,448
  • Mar 14, 2008 2:59pm Mar 14, 2008 2:59pm
Quoting forexpert310
im bullish from here to 190s
Good luck my friend!
  • #68,449
  • Mar 14, 2008 3:00pm Mar 14, 2008 3:00pm
Most people are saying a retrace to 208 area before it comes back down to 190 & lower.

Does your analysis say it will go to 189 before a retrace?

Regards...

Quoting malcolmb14
This is what I have been saying ever since I came into the forum.

189 is my target.
Regards, Android.
  • #68,450
  • Mar 14, 2008 3:00pm Mar 14, 2008 3:00pm
dow closed off the lows a bit. That stopped the bleeding.
  • #68,451
  • Mar 14, 2008 3:07pm Mar 14, 2008 3:07pm
This is my prediction based on Fibonacci Fan tool and monthly trend lines.

This is a monthly chart ...
any comments ?
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Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #68,452
  • Mar 14, 2008 3:14pm Mar 14, 2008 3:14pm
Quoting ovaforty
dow closed off the lows a bit. That stopped the bleeding.
Of course dow closed of its low ... like printing money on a day like today . Play the bounce as day traders close their short positions.

I played this move in the Ym for 140 points last week and 100 points today.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #68,453
  • Mar 14, 2008 3:23pm Mar 14, 2008 3:23pm
either a int rate cut or .75 basis rate cut will take dow over 12500
and gbp should retrace to 208.xx before further fall , but if fed fails to please the maret then ...
  • #68,454
  • Mar 14, 2008 3:41pm Mar 14, 2008 3:41pm
Will you leave open position for weekend?
  • #68,455
  • Mar 14, 2008 3:52pm Mar 14, 2008 3:52pm
Quoting venci
Will you leave open position for weekend?
Closing my position in the next 5 min. . .
I think it will close near 200 or possibly below. . . Support @ 200 and 199.60/70 area. . .
It's starting to edge down now! Not sure what Asian market will think of price being so low so anything could happen - gap up - gap down - not sure. . .

Cheers and have a good weekend all!
  • #68,456
  • Mar 14, 2008 4:08pm Mar 14, 2008 4:08pm
hi,
i red about ur efforts to help new traders like me
i have beingg demo tradin for 3 weeks now, though i trade on any pair emphasized by the forex news and most often make profits with help of
stochastic oscillator, im still not solid on my forcast, so i would want to know
how to follow a thread n information about a pair. thanks.
[email protected]
  • #68,457
  • Mar 14, 2008 4:10pm Mar 14, 2008 4:10pm
Quoting android
Most people are saying a retrace to 208 area before it comes back down to 190 & lower.

Does your analysis say it will go to 189 before a retrace?

Regards...
Interesting analysis. Why ?

Why would this pair retrace to 208 ? I do not see it

Lets see what is happened this week:
1) feds inject 20 billion last Friday ... market blipped up then continued down trend
2) feds thought oh well that did not work lets inject more ... they inject $200 billion .. markets have best up day in 5 years. Bulls out waving the flag and buying like crazy , mean while the smart money has left the house while retail investors are buying like mad men.
3) markets give most of the gains back by today ( they closed only 50 points above where they opened despite what the Feds injected $220 billion in to the markets)

Lets see what happens next week:

1) CPI was as expected today with the energy component being - 0.1% ..I laughed ... gas in Canada has gone up by a larger % than food did last month ( from 123 per litre to 134 per litre). So they are lying about CPI that is a given as I have experienced inflation right out of my own pocket book today when i went to fill my car with gas.

2) Why are they lying ? because if CPI goes up it mean inflation is going up and they should not cut rates as interest rate hike curbs inflation.

3) Tuesday is the big show .....The market is all excited about a 1% rate cut. Do you honestly think if they were cutting by 1% they would not have made an emergency rate cut today to stop the carnage ?
I think a .5% or less ( the market has .5% built in) rate cut on Tuesday.

scenario 1) rate cut is only 0.5% market not going to like it. They are going to like it even less if there is any mention of rate freeeze or increase.
scenario 2) rate cut is 0.25 % or less with feds waffling about inflation concerns .. markets going to drop 500 point in one day,
scenario 3) feds cut rate by 1% .... marekts will blip up but then drop as this shows panic from fed.

Lets see what is oil today oh $111 ... mmm remember the oil crisis of the 70's... interest rates were going up fast and we had hyper inflation and comparitively ( taking inflation in to consideration) oil was cheaper then

So from a fundamental perspective there is no reason the markets should go up.

Now lets look at the technicals :

today we finished 13 pips off the low of the day = no buyers = bearish.

The very best we could do is retest the 50 % fib of todays move at 202.70 . which is about half way up the weekly bar that formed today.

I doubt very much at this point that we will see 208 before we see 180 zone.

Aslo look at the weekly chart . It is classic step down chart . Where price drops then consolidates , then drops then consolidates.

If you are a newbie swing traders the worst thing you can do right now is go long. Sell into rallies.

Lets see how this plays out next week.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #68,458
  • Mar 14, 2008 4:17pm Mar 14, 2008 4:17pm
Quoting arezab
This is my prediction based on Fibonacci Fan tool and monthly trend lines.

This is a monthly chart ...
any comments ?
Agree. The bullish bounce will come in the 190-191 area till 205. From there the next unwind towards 175 should be a sweet ride for the bears !

Happy Weekending all !!
  • #68,459
  • Edited 4:46pm Mar 14, 2008 4:34pm | Edited 4:46pm
can someone tell me what would be the worst scenario of how far gbp/jpy might fall without reaching 208.00? i have 190...
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  • #68,460
  • Mar 14, 2008 4:43pm Mar 14, 2008 4:43pm
i think i got my answer of the worst scenario thanks malcolmb

Quoting malcolmb14
Interesting analysis. Why ?

Why would this pair retrace to 208 ? I do not see it

Lets see what is happened this week:
1) feds inject 20 billion last Friday ... market blipped up then continued down trend
2) feds thought oh well that did not work lets inject more ... they inject $200 billion .. markets have best up day in 5 years. Bulls out waving the flag and buying like crazy , mean while the smart money has left the house while retail investors are buying like mad men.
3) markets give most of the gains back by today ( they closed only 50 points above where they opened despite what the Feds injected $220 billion in to the markets)

Lets see what happens next week:

1) CPI was as expected today with the energy component being - 0.1% ..I laughed ... gas in Canada has gone up by a larger % than food did last month ( from 123 per litre to 134 per litre). So they are lying about CPI that is a given as I have experienced inflation right out of my own pocket book today when i went to fill my car with gas.

2) Why are they lying ? because if CPI goes up it mean inflation is going up and they should not cut rates as interest rate hike curbs inflation.

3) Tuesday is the big show .....The market is all excited about a 1% rate cut. Do you honestly think if they were cutting by 1% they would not have made an emergency rate cut today to stop the carnage ?
I think a .5% or less ( the market has .5% built in) rate cut on Tuesday.

scenario 1) rate cut is only 0.5% market not going to like it. They are going to like it even less if there is any mention of rate freeeze or increase.
scenario 2) rate cut is 0.25 % or less with feds waffling about inflation concerns .. markets going to drop 500 point in one day,
scenario 3) feds cut rate by 1% .... marekts will blip up but then drop as this shows panic from fed.

Lets see what is oil today oh $111 ... mmm remember the oil crisis of the 70's... interest rates were going up fast and we had hyper inflation and comparitively ( taking inflation in to consideration) oil was cheaper then

So from a fundamental perspective there is no reason the markets should go up.

Now lets look at the technicals :

today we finished 13 pips off the low of the day = no buyers = bearish.

The very best we could do is retest the 50 % fib of todays move at 202.70 . which is about half way up the weekly bar that formed today.

I doubt very much at this point that we will see 208 before we see 180 zone.

Aslo look at the weekly chart . It is classic step down chart . Where price drops then consolidates , then drops then consolidates.

If you are a newbie swing traders the worst thing you can do right now is go long. Sell into rallies.

Lets see how this plays out next week.
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