Long term trend following - Dangerous !

Hi all,

This is the second system I'm testing in addition to my short term strategy.
I plan to use it on a seperate account of course with money I can afford to loose. You'll see that actually there's not much to test here - it's brainless (a "system" is a strong word for it really) and can't really be verified with statistics of previous behaviour (maybe only if you analize monthly or yearly charts).

RISK DISCLOSURE: This system can be VERY dangerous and is LIKELY to eventually result in the LOSS of your account.

Why do I post it still ? Because I think that nevertheless one can profit from it more than one looses eventually. This is not a get rich tactic though - the idea is to remove the money from your account AS SOON as you about double it and leave the original amount only. I have been using it for just 4 days now (since tuesday) and I'm up 18% (and wasn't even on the computer monitoring the action that closely so I missed some opportunities).

The system - very simple I take the stongest forex pairs - E/U and U/Y (I don't take G/U because I don't trust the strentgh of the GBP, pluss it will be affected by what happens with the previous two pairs anyway).

Now, there is strong overall sentiment now that E/U will keep climbing or at least maintain it's current level - the trend is up (I hope... ). About U/Y there's even less doubt from what I've read - now that it crossed the 100 the majority seem to agree it will fall hard.

Now, I enter trades ONLY on trend about every 50 pips. Ussualy - right above a round (in steps of 50 pips) number and tp a bit below the previous number (on uptrend). Also my target is always within the range the price already visited once at least. My SL is OPEN - that is it is more than 1000 pips and doesn't matter. I do make some discretion - if I believe that a retrace is nearing I'll wait and not enter a trade so that I won't get stuck with it.

Leverage - very important factor - my TOTAL leverage on E/U and U/Y doesn't exceed 8. This gives me about 1,250 pips and a bit more on U/Y (the pip is worth a bit less, in USD) to maneuver with. If I get stuck with a trade in the negative for a while because of a retrace I leave it be until the trend resumes and do not exceed the leverage so as not to tighten the total SL before I blow the account.

The idea as you can see is simple, trust the strongest pairs and their trends - read forecasts and analysis to guesstimate it. And capture about 50 pip on-trend moves as much as you can while withdrawing every time you double your account (or make a certain percentage you decide - when the account grows the profit grows also of course for the same leverage - but then sooner or later if and when the trend reverses and you miss it - you loose the account or a lot of it). If you can make more than your deposit, you got some easy money with hardly any investment OR you might have the missfortune of loosing everything on your first trade... In short, if you choose to use it and loose - don't say I didn't warn you.

Potential variations to this system - increase the leverage - leave yourself say 1000 pips of air with a leverage of 10 and PRAY you're guessing the long term trend right and make more before you loose.

That's it, Have a great weekend

If the best thing you can come up with is praying, I'd save your money for something else.

Well if you have a good system (like my short term sys. that shows real promise) you're probably right. I wrote about the advantages and the disadvatages above. But, I'm up over 20% in 4 days now.. imagine if I had followed E/U this way from say 1.3 even with a modest account I'd withdraw some nice pocket change by now with minimum effort. Investing any serious amount of course is not worth it nor getting greedy and trying to grow your account a lot.