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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #67,901
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:03am Mar 13, 2008 5:03am
Quoting shahroodi
that's true nad becoz of that i take a long postion after 15min QQE5 was crossed up and price closed above it's gann....
BTW if price close above 1hr gann i will add to my position.

regards
We are still lower than 1H gan , what do you expect now ?
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #67,902
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:03am Mar 13, 2008 5:03am
Quoting tar
Hi guys , How far u put your stoploss on GJ intraday trades ? 50 pips , 100 pips ?
Somewhere in that range, yes. I usually set it to 50.
  • #67,903
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:06am Mar 13, 2008 5:06am
Quoting karmostaji
GJ still unable to close below the Monthly S1 (4H chart)

Tripple bottom for now.
are you sure karmo ? i do not think karmo
i think price is going to reach to monthly 50%
  • #67,904
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:06am Mar 13, 2008 5:06am
me short tp 5sma 203.80 sl 204.76 gan
Attached Image
  • #67,905
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:09am Mar 13, 2008 5:09am
Quoting karmostaji
GJ still unable to close below the Monthly S1 (4H chart)

Tripple bottom for now.
Karmo, the movement pattern tells me GJ is gathering momentum to fall and reach 197 area soon. This is not a triple bottom and definitely it's not an uptrend movement pattern either. You see the third fall (actually the 4th fall) closed lower than the previous lows? It's like a bouncing ping-pong ball. You can find this pattern of movement even in tick chart. In my experience, when GJ is moving like this, she is gathering the energy and speed she needs to sink. This pattern is valid for both uptrend and downtrend.

IMO GJ is going to retrace a %38.2 or may be %50 retrace up to max 205.50 and then the major fall will start which will break all supports down to 197 area. Though I could be wrong about all of these.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #67,906
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:16am Mar 13, 2008 5:16am
Quoting arezab
Karmo, the movement pattern tells me GJ is gathering momentum to fall and reach 197 area soon. This is not a triple bottom and definitely it's not an uptrend movement pattern either. You see the third fall (actually the 4th fall) closed lower than the previous lows? It's like a bouncing ping-pong ball. You can find this pattern of movement even in tick chart. In my experience, when GJ is moving like this, she is gathering the energy and speed she needs to sink. This pattern is valid for both uptrend and downtrend.

IMO GJ is going to retrace a %38.2 or may be %50 retrace up to max 205.50 and then the major fall will start which will break all supports down to 197 area. Though I could be wrong about all of these.
I think We need to see a New 4H Candle Above the Current 4H candle... Then We will see price to go to 38.2 and also favor 50% FIB....
What do you think ? Currently 203.95 a little lower than 23.6% FIB of the Last DownTrend
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #67,907
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:20am Mar 13, 2008 5:20am
Quoting danryman78
are you sure karmo ? i do not think karmo
i think price is going to reach to monthly 50%
are you sure danryman78 ?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #67,908
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:22am Mar 13, 2008 5:22am
Quoting arezab
Karmo, the movement pattern tells me GJ is gathering momentum to fall and reach 197 area soon. This is not a triple bottom and definitely it's not an uptrend movement pattern either. You see the third fall (actually the 4th fall) closed lower than the previous lows? It's like a bouncing ping-pong ball. You can find this pattern of movement even in tick chart. In my experience, when GJ is moving like this, she is gathering the energy and speed she needs to sink. This pattern is valid for both uptrend and downtrend.

IMO GJ is going to retrace a %38.2 or may be %50 retrace up to max 205.50 and then the major fall will start which will break all supports down to 197 area. Though I could be wrong about all of these.
You could be right but on my 4H chart, the candle did not closer lower than previos 203.50, yes it penetrated but did not close lower, your 4H might be different but I'll trade what I see.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #67,909
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:25am Mar 13, 2008 5:25am
Quoting arezab
Karmo, the movement pattern tells me GJ is gathering momentum to fall and reach 197 area soon. This is not a triple bottom and definitely it's not an uptrend movement pattern either. You see the third fall (actually the 4th fall) closed lower than the previous lows? It's like a bouncing ping-pong ball. You can find this pattern of movement even in tick chart. In my experience, when GJ is moving like this, she is gathering the energy and speed she needs to sink. This pattern is valid for both uptrend and downtrend.

IMO GJ is going to retrace a %38.2 or may be %50 retrace up to max 205.50 and then the major fall will start which will break all supports down to 197 area. Though I could be wrong about all of these.
agreed arezab
and one important thing that i should mention is as you now there were a lot of sell on dollar and because of that when ny session open today dow will fall strongle and push gj to downside .
  • #67,910
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:26am Mar 13, 2008 5:26am
We may see 205.00 today, my guess is the news at 8:30 will push us up to that point, then GJ will drop, even more. I have shorts from 207.10, if you want to make money in forex, do it the easy way, SELL THE DOLLAR!!!!
  • #67,911
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:42am Mar 13, 2008 5:42am
you always put your SL behind your entry pattern. it doesn't matter if it's 20 pips or 132 pips. just identify the critical point where you don't believe in your pattern... that's your SL.
if you use a certain (round) amount of pips, such as 20 or 30 or so, you have more chances of being hit.

Quoting tar
Hi guys , How far u put your stoploss on GJ intraday trades ? 50 pips , 100 pips ?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #67,912
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:45am Mar 13, 2008 5:45am
Its quiet possible that the FED's might cut the rate before the meeting next week and its quiet possible that it could be today. I still think we will see 200-199 but not before seeing high 208's 209
  • #67,913
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:53am Mar 13, 2008 5:53am
Quoting karmostaji
You could be right but on my 4H chart, the candle did not closer lower than previos 203.50, yes it penetrated but did not close lower, your 4H might be different but I'll trade what I see.
Yes, neither did mine in H4. Just penetration. Although I was long biased, but I was waiting for the price to break up 207.80 resistance to expect further upward movement. But now, after this fall, I've changed my mind. This 500 pips fall can not be retracement or correction or things like that. Although we don't see a candle close lower than 203.64 but IMO down trend is more likely to continue than a resume of the uptrend.

My analysis with trend lines, fibonacci fan and fib levels shows me we will have some retrace up and then 198.xx (161.8 extension) area as the first target down.

I'm waiting for a %50 retrace. After that if we close a candle above daily Gann, I'll change to bullish again, otherwise the bears will continue to the down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: long term 1.gif Size: 16 KB
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #67,914
  • Mar 13, 2008 5:54am Mar 13, 2008 5:54am
I'm with you Vinesh2
  • #67,915
  • Mar 13, 2008 6:01am Mar 13, 2008 6:01am
i got 1h qqe crossing
  • #67,916
  • Edited 7:13am Mar 13, 2008 6:14am | Edited 7:13am
a Bat formation on GJ1h
http://www.tradingrooms.com/chartpos...2008111731.png
NIKKEI 225 INDEX
-445 (-2.93%)
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_N...i&w=15&t=f&a=3
GJ8h moms - all bullish

CCI - a guess
http://www.tradingrooms.com/chartpos...2008121134.png
just be twice carefull, bro
  • #67,917
  • Mar 13, 2008 6:32am Mar 13, 2008 6:32am
Quoting danryman78
agreed arezab
and one important thing that i should mention is as you now there were a lot of sell on dollar and because of that when ny session open today dow will fall strongle and push gj to downside .
I would be careful making such an assumption. It is not as if people are just waiting for the NY bell to ring to frantically sell; ie the DOW does not sit static waiting to explode in reaction of the other played out markets which saw the strong sell off. This action has already been priced into the DOW futures (160 down currently) and its not like the US has to catch up to the sell off. There may in fact be a slight recovery of sentiment by the time the market opens (meaning that it moves int o slightly less negative territory) depending on whether the market is still spooked or not.

THere may be a further downside coming but dont assume that this afternoons downside means the selling continues (unless of course the sentiment that inspired it is still prevailing or the rumour that caused it comes to be). If anything i would be cautious about a possible rate cut occuring (not a certainty by any means but something to be aware of).

Whatever happens my point is dont assume that sentiment from mid asia will carry through to US (especially considering that the Dow leads the equity markets and also how ignorant of reality it can be sometimes). Trade what you see; making sweeping predictions of something as dynamic as the forex market is something that will land you in trouble. Follow the cliche and just trade your chart.
Lemming Forex! The Way to Trade....
  • #67,918
  • Mar 13, 2008 6:55am Mar 13, 2008 6:55am
the price already range above the 23% of the fibo last fall and it will hit the 50% of the last downfall.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hema chart.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #67,919
  • Mar 13, 2008 7:18am Mar 13, 2008 7:18am
heart pounding moment...

i bet it will be bearish
  • #67,920
  • Mar 13, 2008 7:25am Mar 13, 2008 7:25am
good luck for all buyers and sellers news in 5 min..
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