jpy Interest Rate Statement | Forex Factory

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jpy Interest Rate Statement

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 17, 2007 4:57am Jan 17, 2007 4:57am
hi

i just noticed about this news, and it seems have potential to move the market big time, because some people saying they will hike some saying they will not hike, so, it doesn't matter if they hike or not, we may see Good move from jpy pairs today. so i think it is a good idea to straddle this with about more than 15 pips away with trailing and no tp... what do you guys saying?
and about jpy pairs they are already in the high gbp/jpy is around 237 and usd/jpy is around 121, so if they don't hike maybe we go to new high today, and if they hike maybe we go down big time.

any comment would apprecaited.
  • #2
  • Jan 17, 2007 5:14am Jan 17, 2007 5:14am
Why the time for this announcement appears as "Tentative" at the FF Calendar?
  • #3
  • Jan 17, 2007 5:27am Jan 17, 2007 5:27am
Quoting cesarnc
Why the time for this announcement appears as "Tentative" at the FF Calendar?

hey cesarnc.

that is tentative because at that time the statement will not release and jpy banks will release between 7 pm until 8pm in NY time, and maybe after that, they will be in the conference room and release the data in random time,so it is hard to trade also, we don't know exact time
  • #4
  • Jan 17, 2007 5:36am Jan 17, 2007 5:36am
Quoting mohsen57
hey cesarnc.

that is tentative because at that time the statement will not release and jpy banks will release between 7 pm until 8pm in NY time, and maybe after that, they will be in the conference room and release the data in random time,so it is hard to trade also, we don't know exact time
Thanks, mohsen...

That's bad, though... Random time will mean erratic moves during the day... As if this week wasn't hard already...
  • #5
  • Jan 17, 2007 6:15am Jan 17, 2007 6:15am
Quoting cesarnc
Thanks, mohsen...

That's bad, though... Random time will mean erratic moves during the day... As if this week wasn't hard already...
yea, but we may use 20 pips away from price and wait for their rate statement release, and if release our order will trigger and we may earn some cool pips, who know?
  • #6
  • Jan 17, 2007 7:00am Jan 17, 2007 7:00am
I was wondering about this release too, as at the beginning of the week a 25bps rise was 100% certain, now it is only a 28% chance of happening.

I think the play is buy usd/jpy if no rise, but the bigger move will be if they hike.
Forex rules
  • #7
  • Jan 17, 2007 11:51am Jan 17, 2007 11:51am
anybody know about when this news will came out, here in FF say tentative, in fxstreet is around 5 GMT, any insight appreciated
  • #8
  • Jan 17, 2007 12:09pm Jan 17, 2007 12:09pm
not sure when it will come out this time, but for the past few months is has come out around 11pm EST. there is about a 4 hour window that it usually comes out between, 10pm - 2am EST.
Relax and be happy.
  • #9
  • Jan 17, 2007 12:29pm Jan 17, 2007 12:29pm
thanks merlin, that is really appreciated, do you have any comment about hike and no hike and movement, do you think this release will move the market big time if hike or no hike, thanks for your observation.
  • #10
  • Jan 17, 2007 12:57pm Jan 17, 2007 12:57pm
Personally, I believe BoJ will not lift interest rate tomorrow, so I think carry trade will still go on. I don't think there will be a big move unless Fukui says something unexpected.
"Even the word impossible says that I M possible"
  • #11
  • Jan 17, 2007 2:41pm Jan 17, 2007 2:41pm
I wont be trading this one. If you will trade this news live, GOOD LUCK!
  • #12
  • Jan 17, 2007 4:26pm Jan 17, 2007 4:26pm
I hope to be able to trade this news, but I keep hearing different times. I plan to take two positions around the time the news is expected to be released, place stop loss on both and let the winner run while the loser is stopped out.

Do we have any offical word on when this news will be realeased. I hear Merlin say 10pm-2am (EST) and I heard something about as early as 7pm (EST). Can anyone say for sure what the time span may be?
  • #13
  • Jan 17, 2007 4:36pm Jan 17, 2007 4:36pm
Quoting mohsen57
yea, but we may use 20 pips away from price and wait for their rate statement release, and if release our order will trigger and we may earn some cool pips, who know?
Man, I tell you this... Every time there's news coming up I think about this method of yours...

Looks perfect, but I've seen too many whipsaws with news, that it scares the hell out of me.

Second, is that I don't trust 100% that my broker is going to fill. Say, on huge moves triggered by news, the system simply freezes, although I keep seeing price movement. The only way to figure this out is giving it a try.

As I´m running short on cash here, I prefer not giving it a try

AS I'm trading Cable only, I hope this BOJ issue (hike or no hike) to gives a light on further developments...
  • #14
  • Jan 17, 2007 5:03pm Jan 17, 2007 5:03pm
The last time I stayed up for the BoJ announcement, it was an actual 25 bp increase.....and nothing happened!!!! The rate increased an absolutely nothing was impacted for at least the next hour.

My next schedule announcement: US CPI, initially dollar positive, followed by a retrace double the initial move.
  • #15
  • Jan 17, 2007 6:12pm Jan 17, 2007 6:12pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
The last time I stayed up for the BoJ announcement, it was an actual 25 bp increase.....and nothing happened!!!! The rate increased an absolutely nothing was impacted for at least the next hour.

My next schedule announcement: US CPI, initially dollar positive, followed by a retrace double the initial move.
But wasn't that very much expected so already priced in? This announcement seems to be about 50/50 so a rate hike should move the market IMO.
  • #16
  • Jan 17, 2007 7:13pm Jan 17, 2007 7:13pm
Quoting merlin
not sure when it will come out this time, but for the past few months is has come out around 11pm EST
I am a little bit confused. Is that 11pm EST tonight wednesday evening or tomorrow thursday evening?

Thanks.
  • #17
  • Jan 17, 2007 7:36pm Jan 17, 2007 7:36pm
Yeah I'm holding two postions waiting for the news to come out. Anyone hear anything on the news about it?
  • #18
  • Jan 17, 2007 7:40pm Jan 17, 2007 7:40pm
i wouldn't advise to hold JPY position. As if everyone expects a rate hike then when it is actually hiked then we wont get a deviation from consensus now would we? well....only if they leave it unchanged or if they put it to 0.75. that is my trigger
  • #19
  • Jan 17, 2007 7:53pm Jan 17, 2007 7:53pm
Quoting Crestwind
I hope to be able to trade this news, but I keep hearing different times. I plan to take two positions around the time the news is expected to be released, place stop loss on both and let the winner run while the loser is stopped out.

Do we have any offical word on when this news will be realeased. I hear Merlin say 10pm-2am (EST) and I heard something about as early as 7pm (EST). Can anyone say for sure what the time span may be?
Problem is Japan doesn't have a set time for the interest rate release. They usually get into a room around 7 pm NY Time, and they all chit chat, and then sporatically announce the rate. It can come somewhere between 7 pm and 8 pm NY time, but it may also come later than that and up to 4 hours late.
  • #20
  • Jan 17, 2007 7:57pm Jan 17, 2007 7:57pm
the announcement is schedualed for 1 oclock that is the economic announcement. there is an annoucement due at 1030 for the meeting. but the big on is at two. my sources are my broker and tradethenews.com
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