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Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked)

  • #441
  • Mar 6, 2008 8:10am Mar 6, 2008 8:10am
Quoting paradise103
I know backtest is useless, but I believe that to start forward testing you should have a minimum of proof that it's worthy
you believe its useless yet you still do it so you can feel good about it ? .

Just do forward test on smaller timeframe such as 1 minute or maybe 5 minute,

you will get hundreds of trade on a single day !
  • #442
  • Mar 6, 2008 8:16am Mar 6, 2008 8:16am
I don't know if we can compare H4 to small TF like 15min in this case because the advantage of higher TF is less noise.
Anyway, I have nothing to loose. Will give it a try and post results here.
Thanks for the advice
  • #443
  • Mar 6, 2008 8:41am Mar 6, 2008 8:41am
[quote=paradise103;1888375]
Hi paradise103,
You did a good job. I appreciate your effort.
I have found that using the 1-2-3 method is the best for me, and I'm using the 4H time frame as well. I am running the 1-2-3 system on 12 pairs and it is done by setting orders for buy and sell in advance.
I've noticed that the less I touch it, the best results i get ....., so I set a ~50 pips SL, and a 100 pips TP, 25 pips TS and let it run.
I think it was freevy who posted an automatic trade management EA. I should test it and see if my profits are getting a little higher.
BR
Dani M.
  • #444
  • Mar 6, 2008 8:43am Mar 6, 2008 8:43am
in comparision 4H chart is just a noise in weekly / monthly chart......

people DO make huge amount of money even with 1 second chart.....never underestimate any timeframe, respect them and stay with one you prefer.

you can forward test 4H if you like and take 1 or 2 good setup for allot of pips, Or you can forward test with 1m chart and take 20 or 30 Good setup for 10-20 pips.......

Its all in the mind.
  • #445
  • Mar 6, 2008 9:10am Mar 6, 2008 9:10am
[quote=dan_mir;1888626]
Quoting paradise103
Hi paradise103,
You did a good job. I appreciate your effort.
I have found that using the 1-2-3 method is the best for me, and I'm using the 4H time frame as well. I am running the 1-2-3 system on 12 pairs and it is done by setting orders for buy and sell in advance.
I've noticed that the less I touch it, the best results i get ....., so I set a ~50 pips SL, and a 100 pips TP, 25 pips TS and let it run.
I think it was freevy who posted an automatic trade management EA. I should test it and see if my profits are getting a little higher.
BR
Dani M.
Hi Dan_mir,
Thanks for your encouragement. Just wanted to ask if you enter with 2 positions and compound positions?
And once you got the EA share it with us
Thanks in advance
  • #446
  • Mar 6, 2008 9:16am Mar 6, 2008 9:16am
Cash or Noise ? you decide
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5mnoiseorcash.PNG Size: 33 KB
  • #447
  • Mar 6, 2008 9:20am Mar 6, 2008 9:20am
Quoting Syafi
Cash or Noise ? you decide
thanks for the pic I was just about to ask the question
Are you reading my mind?
  • #448
  • Mar 6, 2008 11:29am Mar 6, 2008 11:29am
Quoting Syafi
Cash or Noise ? you decide
This is an interesting conversation. I kept wondering the same way!

But what I see as an advantage in a longer time horizon with a smaller leverage, is you allow it to play it out as long as possible and adding the lots on the way at every opportunity, which should yield a compounded result, as oppose to getting in and out on shorter time frame.

Perhaps, mathematically it might add up to the same, however, taking more frequent trade also implies more risk of loosing trades.

Does it make sense?

TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #449
  • Mar 6, 2008 2:04pm Mar 6, 2008 2:04pm
[quote=paradise103;1888694]
Quoting dan_mir
Hi Dan_mir,
Thanks for your encouragement. Just wanted to ask if you enter with 2 positions and compound positions?
And once you got the EA share it with us
Thanks in advance
Hi again,
1. Sorry for being misunderstood, I don't put 2 orders, just one, in the direction of the expected breakout. sometimes I do have two orders on the same chart, but one belongs to the previous peak and one for the previous valley.
2. If you look at the attachments list of the thread, you can find the one called Trade_Manager_Expert.mq4 . this is the EA that manages the trade. it gives you many options for profit taking at pre defined levels, as well as moving your SL as the trade advances.
BR
Dani M.
  • #450
  • Mar 6, 2008 4:26pm Mar 6, 2008 4:26pm
Quoting TradeStar
This is an interesting conversation. I kept wondering the same way!

But what I see as an advantage in a longer time horizon with a smaller leverage, is you allow it to play it out as long as possible and adding the lots on the way at every opportunity, which should yield a compounded result, as oppose to getting in and out on shorter time frame.

Perhaps, mathematically it might add up to the same, however, taking more frequent trade also implies more risk of loosing trades.

Does it make sense?

TradeStar
More trade = more risk more reward Its all up to individual taste,

What I reall want to say is, You can use smaller timeframe to test the system out in a forwardtest. using smaller timeframe, you can see allot more of this Peak & Valley tradig setup compare to 1H or 4H.

On your live trading, just go with whatever timeframe you want.
  • #451
  • Mar 12, 2008 5:44am Mar 12, 2008 5:44am
Hi,
In order to keep this thread alive, as this is my trading methodology, I will post my position for the day.
I trade 4H charts, so it is based upon peak & valleys and 1-2-3 on this time frame.
Maybe you want to compare my positions with the one you have.
Don't let this tread die.
BR
Dani M
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Open positions March 12.jpg Size: 141 KB
  • #452
  • Edited 9:07pm Mar 12, 2008 8:18pm | Edited 9:07pm
Thanks for keeping things moving on this thread.

Since I am relegated most of the time to the daily, I have been looking at support and resistance rather than/in conjunction with Peaks and Valleys. Often this is the same thing at certain time frames.

At this point I have nothing to say.
  • #453
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:27pm Mar 12, 2008 9:27pm
Quoting dan_mir
Hi,
In order to keep this thread alive, as this is my trading methodology, I will post my position for the day.
I trade 4H charts, so it is based upon peak & valleys and 1-2-3 on this time frame.
Maybe you want to compare my positions with the one you have.
Don't let this tread die.
BR
Dani M
Do you wait for close above the peak or just the break. Many times just a break proves false and it often falls back. What is your experience.


TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #454
  • Mar 12, 2008 11:15pm Mar 12, 2008 11:15pm
If you read the statement, it shows not all trade were profitable.

It doesnt matter how you go with it, Break/Pierced / waiting till the high of candle on the peak .......... all will result in some sort of retracement / reversal and eat your equity.

the best way is to keep the losses small and aim for large profit......
Or use this on 1 second chart and aim 3-6 pip with an ECN Broker
  • #455
  • Mar 13, 2008 1:06am Mar 13, 2008 1:06am
hi everyone,

One question. Do you consider chart pattern as one of the way to trade? Or is it just 1-2-3 method?
  • #456
  • Mar 13, 2008 2:33am Mar 13, 2008 2:33am
the best way is to keep the losses small and aim for large profit......
Or use this on 1 second chart and aim 3-6 pip with an ECN Broker [/quote]
Hello and Salam syafi,
1. I see you got a 1KT title, congratulations.
2. As for the statement above, it is hard to define the "small losses". I currently trade with a fix 50 pips SL, but it is hit too many times... My TP is usually 100 pips on the 4H charts.
If I understand you right, I should lower the SL. Do you have any back tested data, or suggestions for fix SL (in pips) on 4H charts ?
I know it is individual, but, I'm looking for something like "If it goes XX pips against you, it is likely to be a lost one".
Thanks
Dani M.
  • #457
  • Mar 13, 2008 2:36am Mar 13, 2008 2:36am
Quoting TradeStar
Do you wait for close above the peak or just the break. Many times just a break proves false and it often falls back. What is your experience.

TradeStar
Hi Tradestar,
I put my orders in advance, so once it gets to the price, I'm in. I don't know a way for waiting to the candle to close without doing it manually or using an EA.
BR
Dani M.
  • #458
  • Mar 13, 2008 3:40am Mar 13, 2008 3:40am
Hi,
These are my positions for today.
Good luck everybody.
BR
Dani M.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Open positions March 13.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #459
  • Mar 13, 2008 3:11pm Mar 13, 2008 3:11pm
Quoting Syafi
If you read the statement, it shows not all trade were profitable.

It doesnt matter how you go with it, Break/Pierced / waiting till the high of candle on the peak .......... all will result in some sort of retracement / reversal and eat your equity.

the best way is to keep the losses small and aim for large profit......
Or use this on 1 second chart and aim 3-6 pip with an ECN Broker
No offence here but I see you talking alot but not really saying anything of value in your posts. The advice you give is stuff that is already a known ( let profits run cut loses short - Backtesting is not like forward testing and so on ). It seems you just pop in and out of several threads but dont really contribute to the actual trading process of that thread. Since peak and valley is your trading style, how about posting a chart or maybe an entry or two with some explanation to your trades. This would be more productive to the thread then just old saying that have been around for years. I have been trading for more then four years but only post if I have a question or feel that I can contribute in some way. The old saying goes "Talk is cheap, SHOW ME"

Again, No offence meant here,

AZ
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #460
  • Mar 13, 2008 3:28pm Mar 13, 2008 3:28pm
Quoting dan_mir
the best way is to keep the losses small and aim for large profit......
Or use this on 1 second chart and aim 3-6 pip with an ECN Broker
Hello and Salam syafi,
1. I see you got a 1KT title, congratulations.
2. As for the statement above, it is hard to define the "small losses". I currently trade with a fix 50 pips SL, but it is hit too many times... My TP is usually 100 pips on the 4H charts.
If I understand you right, I should lower the SL. Do you have any back tested data, or suggestions for fix SL (in pips) on 4H charts ?
I know it is individual, but, I'm looking for something like "If it goes XX pips against you, it is likely to be a lost one".
Thanks
Dani M.[/quote]

Dani,

I think a fixed sl for 50 pips or even a 100 pips is not the way to look at any trade, don't think in terms of pips. You have to know before you enter a trade, at what point if price goes against you, your analysis is wrong? Now that could actually be 70 or maybe even 100 pips away because there may not be any meaningful s/r levels. I think that is key, once you determine the direction of the flow of price, you should then see at what point does the price have to go against the flow for that flow to no longer be valid. Sort of like a breakout from a range, if price breaks out from a range, and you enter, typically your sl should be on the other end of the range. This will help you determining you sl and also force you to look for better entry points, and cut down your leverage if the sl levels are high, maintain your fixed loss amount regardless of how many pips the SL covers. I know its easier said than done, but thats why trading is more an art than science, the more you play around with it, the better you get at your craft. Hope this helps.

Ron
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