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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #67,721
  • Mar 12, 2008 5:47pm Mar 12, 2008 5:47pm
IMO we should see 206.00-206.20 if not even 206.40 before more sells take place... From there We might see 204.60-80 to test and if it breaks ofcourse we'll see the 203.xx lows. So Im thinking of selling at 206.20 or so to ride back down to 205 if not more. Looks like the short term trend is back to be bearish
  • #67,722
  • Mar 12, 2008 5:50pm Mar 12, 2008 5:50pm
Quoting hcruces
IMO we should see 206.00-206.20 if not even 206.40 before more sells take place... From there We might see 204.60-80 to test and if it breaks ofcourse we'll see the 203.xx lows. So Im thinking of selling at 206.20 or so to ride back down to 205 if not more. Looks like the short term trend is back to be bearish
Maybe I am more optimistics, I even see 207.50 area
Already went long and monitoring closely ..
  • #67,723
  • Mar 12, 2008 5:51pm Mar 12, 2008 5:51pm
Quoting Pip Dream
Maybe that's good for the US but surely not for Japan and it's exports to the US???
If you read the linked article from dagoods, you will see they talk about how Japan is exporting more to Asia so they will be less affected by a recession in the US. And that they are confident Japan business will continue to make good profits. But I don't buy it. If the US goes, so will China, so will Japan.
  • #67,724
  • Mar 12, 2008 5:53pm Mar 12, 2008 5:53pm
if SUPPORT HOLDS LIKE THE BULLS THINK IT WILL....THEN LOOK AT THE INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN THAT SOULD BE FORMED GUYS...THIS WOULD BE VERY BULLISH FOR GJ IMWO


IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS AT THESE CRITICAL LEVELS OF UJ AND GJ MAKING A HIGHER LOW AND HOLDING..THEN IT WILL BE BULLS TURN TO GIVE US BEARS THE SCREWS IMO



LETS SEE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #67,725
  • Mar 12, 2008 5:59pm Mar 12, 2008 5:59pm
I'm not sure why you guys are stuck on buys. I see GJ going down 204.00 and if that is broken, injoy the slide. we may see 206.00, but we are going down, I trade the higher time frames and don't mind a 100 pip draw down, for the next 10 to 12 hours I will add sells on the peeks. good luck all happy pips.
  • #67,726
  • Edited 8:19pm Mar 12, 2008 6:00pm | Edited 8:19pm
Quoting Scrat
as far as i remember, some japanese guy said (it was on bloomberg btw) that boj won't jump in to adjust u/j levels because this would be against US which favors a weak dollar at this moment.
so yes, you might be the only one buying UJ at these levels.
LOL!

I guess that's why Pres. Bush is on the wire saying US favors a strong $ and that US fall vs. EUR is not good tidings????

Also, I guess that why Trichet said earlier today that US stance on a strong $ is important because US favors a strong $. . . Hmmmmmmmmmm!

Lets have this conversation again in a couple a weeks. . .
  • #67,727
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:02pm Mar 12, 2008 6:02pm
well i think this will get to 208.50 and higher but not before going a little lower here... i think U/J might get close to 100.00 and bounce way up...That would lead G/J to do something similar IMO...
  • #67,728
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:04pm Mar 12, 2008 6:04pm
Quoting dagoods


I WONDER WHY Q??????

PS JUST WAITING FOR PA TO CONFIRM WHERE WILL IT DECIDE TO SIT AND FORM THAT BIG OLD PINBAR???? UNLESS OF COURSE IT DOES INFACT BREAK DOWN....... GULP!!!!!!! (highly unlikely...but u never know....


Nice DD my friend, nice DD. . .
Sometimes you gotta see the glass half full and half empty!
  • #67,729
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:07pm Mar 12, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting hcruces
well i think this will get to 208.50 and higher but not before going a little lower here... i think U/J might get close to 100.00 and bounce way up...That would lead G/J to do something similar IMO...
Don't be surprise if u see UJ up 150- 200 pips in the next day or two. . .
  • #67,730
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:07pm Mar 12, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting cybernut39
I'm not sure why you guys are stuck on buys. I see GJ going down 204.00 and if that is broken, injoy the slide. we may see 206.00, but we are going down, I trade the higher time frames and don't mind a 100 pip draw down, for the next 10 to 12 hours I will add sells on the peeks. good luck all happy pips.
If UJ holds here, which it has been holding for the last week or so, GJ will bounce. GJ's higher tf momentum are bullish. I'm waiting for the 1h qqe5 to cross to go long. I need confirmation if I'm gonna long from the middle of the range.
  • #67,731
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:11pm Mar 12, 2008 6:11pm
I don't normally trade UJ but it looks like it will be going down, I am taking a sell on it now. good luck everyone
  • #67,732
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:14pm Mar 12, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting $teve
If you read the linked article from dagoods, you will see they talk about how Japan is exporting more to Asia so they will be less affected by a recession in the US. And that they are confident Japan business will continue to make good profits. But I don't buy it. If the US goes, so will China, so will Japan.
Here's a nice article on the "decouple" theory.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...olumnist_wasik
  • #67,733
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:18pm Mar 12, 2008 6:18pm
Well, this is again from my incompetent analysis plain and simple observation
Todays' Dow closed down less than 50 points and this pair already down more than 200 pips. Thus, it is making no sense in comparison move.
I think this pair sells off is over done and should retrace to maybe 207 area ..
  • #67,734
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:18pm Mar 12, 2008 6:18pm
One of the reasons why I don't short UJ or GJ when UJ is trading under 102 is because of the fear of BOJ intervention. I'll probably get stopped out if they did. It's better to go long at or near the bottom. I mean UJ and GJ are trading close to some very strong support levels. They probably will break but it will take time and more bounces.
  • #67,735
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:20pm Mar 12, 2008 6:20pm
Here is a naked chart for u I posted earlier. . .
If one was to really study it u can see that GJ is quite predictable over the last couple of sideway cycles. . .

Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #67,736
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:30pm Mar 12, 2008 6:30pm
Quoting quecee5
Here is a naked chart for u I posted earlier. . .
If one was to really study it u can see that GJ is quite predictable over the last couple of sideway cycles. . .

Cheers!
Yeah and "predictably" from looking at your chart, I can see that gj will be heading back up to the high 207 area soon.
  • #67,737
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:36pm Mar 12, 2008 6:36pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...qmk&refer=home

The dollar fell to the lowest since 1995 against the yen after U.S. President George W. Bush said the dollar is ``adjusting.''

Now if Bernanke became president, the dollar might be in parity with the yen.
  • #67,738
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:40pm Mar 12, 2008 6:40pm
Does anyone here use Ichimoku Kinko Hyo on the G/J?
I've not used it much and I wondered how good it is? For those familiar with it, presently it's showing a strong sell signal on the daily chart with price below the Kumo (cloud) and the Tenkan crossing the Kijun line below the Kumo and the Chikou span also below the Kumo. As I understand it, this is a strong bearish signal??
Anyone with experience please advise if they found it a useful or misleading indicator??
Thanks
  • #67,739
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:24pm Mar 12, 2008 7:24pm
Risk appetite: There remains a degree of caution as we are seeing a perfect storm of economic recession factors hitting the U.S. and thats creating uncertainty despite the fact that the Fed has come up with rather creative and elegant ideas - Savanth Sebastian at CommSec

i can conclude that big players have no interest to buy USD
  • #67,740
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:19pm Mar 12, 2008 8:19pm
oh i'm sure big sharks are just around the corner waiting to bite our assess... lool. they know EXACTLY what they are doing. all of them. i'm sure greenback is gonna make a heck of a reversal but it will be at the point where EVERYONE (well, almost) would have already lost that hope. because that's just how things work in this business.
to tell you the truth, i couldn't care less about this fundamental BS. everybody has a different statement, a different opinion, spreading different rumours... so to wonder yourself "why did this and that happen" is just a big waste of time. which leaves me no other choice than having fun with a bunch of trendlines, indicators, fibo levels and reversal patterns.

p.s. yeah, bush is the real expert. he knows what he's talking about.

Quoting quecee5
LOL!

I guess that's why Pres. Bush is on the wire saying US favors a strong $ and that US fall vs. EUR is not good tidings????

Also, I guess that why Trichet said earlier today that US stance on a string $ is important because US favors a strong $. . . Hmmmmmmmmmm!

Lets have this conversation again in a couple a weeks. . .
Nihil Sine Deo.
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