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SlingShots and other important things in life

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 16, 2007 4:41pm Jan 16, 2007 4:41pm
Since one of my posts got moved to the journal section I thought I would start some discussion here on trading and other important things in life. Maybe we can learn something from each other.

Good Trading... Slingshot
  • #2
  • Jan 16, 2007 4:44pm Jan 16, 2007 4:44pm
Slingshots are trade setups based on price distribution of a tradable. I perform a mathmatical calculation to determine the validity. These trades are not for the weak of heart and they are often against the short-term trend. I trade both weekly and monthly slingshots. For a weekly slingshot, I look at price action each day. Ideally, I like a weekly slingshot to form on Monday's close. For monthly slingshots, I like formation after the first weekly close of the month. If a slingshot forms I will post it here. Be aware that slingshots can be cancelled or changed as the week or month progresses based on price action.

Always use proper risk management on each trade based on your tolerance and individual situation.
Good Trading... Slingshot
  • #3
  • Jan 16, 2007 4:48pm Jan 16, 2007 4:48pm
I have a set up on the JY (Yen Futures) that I call a slingshot. It is based on price distribution and is a position trade. I am Long JYH07 at .8353. This means I think the yen is going to appreciate or said another way...the USDJPY is heading down over the short term.

Targets will fluctuate somewhat based on price action in the coming sessions. I will try to keep them updated.

Long JYH07 @ .8353

Target 1 = .8476
Target 2 = .8612
Target 3 = .8735

My risk is based on a percentage of equity.
Good Trading... Slingshot
  • #4
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:01pm Jan 16, 2007 5:01pm
"Risk and possible consequences associated with each position must be completely accepted without emotional discomfort or fear."

Like many things in life, to become a successful trader you must learn to embrace risk. Risk is different for everyone but no matter who you are you must absolutely understand risk. This is nothing new and certainly not a revelation if you have made it this far.

My methodology allows a percentage of my total trading equity to be risked on each position. Sometimes I allow for a little less than the maximum and sometimes a little more. I always know where I stand in realation to my total at risk. I do not used hard fixed stops. I do not believe in them. Who am I to think I can determine exactly the proper level to place a stop. I will generally use the violation of a certain value area as my stop level. That does not mean that as soon as price hits a level I close the position. I wait for the value area to be proven wrong and then exit. I know many will not agree with this method but it is how I trade and I think stop losses help keep the brokers/dealers in business.

In any case...focus all your efforts on risk control and profit will follow.
Good Trading... Slingshot
  • #5
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:01pm Jan 16, 2007 5:01pm
It sounds interesting, but to be honest, how can one use proper risk management without knowing win ratio, average loss and average win?

Do you have any stats on your method yet?
  • #6
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:11pm Jan 16, 2007 5:11pm
I certainly respect your comment and that is a fair question.

I am a completely discretionary trader. I do not believe in back testing as it tells me nothing about the future. I focus on what is known and not what is unknown.

It may sound a little strange, but my entire methodology only defines risk control. It has no specific rules like typical systems that determine exactly when to enter, take profit, add, take off, etc. I completely disagree with what I was first taught and have evolved to trust my instincts and completely respect the power of my subsconcious mind to do the right thing. If I have a hunch, I act on it. If I want to take profit before a target is reached. I do it...without question.

So what I do is determine the maximum amount I am willing to risk on my idea or theme. I don't really care what has happened in the past or what ratio is this or that. As far as stats go...I am driven by my P&L only.
Good Trading... Slingshot
  • #7
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:29pm Jan 16, 2007 5:29pm
Quoting slingshot
I certainly respect your comment and that is a fair question.

I am a completely discretionary trader. I do not believe in back testing as it tells me nothing about the future. I focus on what is known and not what is unknown.

It may sound a little strange, but my entire methodology only defines risk control. It has no specific rules like typical systems that determine exactly when to enter, take profit, add, take off, etc. I completely disagree with what I was first taught and have evolved to trust my instincts and completely respect the power of my subsconcious mind to do the right thing. If I have a hunch, I act on it. If I want to take profit before a target is reached. I do it...without question.

So what I do is determine the maximum amount I am willing to risk on my idea or theme. I don't really care what has happened in the past or what ratio is this or that. As far as stats go...I am driven by my P&L only.
I see, thank you for your answer. I look forward to watching this thread develop... Scott
  • #8
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:57pm Jan 16, 2007 5:57pm
Since this post the UJ is up 20 pips ! Nevertheless, I'm looking forward to learning your methods. The UJ does seemed poised for a retracement with or without a slingshot. We also have a pending interest rate decision.

Good Luck

Quoting slingshot
I have a set up on the JY (Yen Futures) that I call a slingshot. It is based on price distribution and is a position trade. I am Long JYH07 at .8353. This means I think the yen is going to appreciate or said another way...the USDJPY is heading down over the short term.

Targets will fluctuate somewhat based on price action in the coming sessions. I will try to keep them updated.

Long JYH07 @ .8353

Target 1 = .8476
Target 2 = .8612
Target 3 = .8735

My risk is based on a percentage of equity.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #9
  • Jan 17, 2007 2:10pm Jan 17, 2007 2:10pm
Things have definitely been a little slow and in the end not much gained or lost. The BOJ rate decision is 2nite...I expect that may help things shake around a little.

Bond traders are also drunk driving right now.

You absolutely have to have patience when trading a position theme. Sometimes it takes several sessions for the trade to develop.

Good luck everyone.
Good Trading... Slingshot
  • #10
  • Jan 17, 2007 2:16pm Jan 17, 2007 2:16pm
I am also long the Euro FX (ECH07) since last week. I need spot to clear the critical 2950 mark. If it does not build value above this level, I suspect we may head down to 2750 or so.

The slingshot on EC developed last week. I am long from 1.3030.

Target 1 = 1.3050
Target 2 = 1.3227
Target 3 = 1.3406
Good Trading... Slingshot
  • #11
  • Jan 17, 2007 2:27pm Jan 17, 2007 2:27pm
Some picture doodles...

http://home.comcast.net/~slingshotme...icture_Fun.PNG
Good Trading... Slingshot
  • #12
  • Jan 17, 2007 2:37pm Jan 17, 2007 2:37pm
Always keep an eye on the Euro Index

http://home.comcast.net/~slingshotme...therdoodle.PNG
Good Trading... Slingshot
  • #13
  • Jan 21, 2007 8:43am Jan 21, 2007 8:43am
UPDATE: 1/21/2007

I am still underwater on this one. My price distribution studies still indicate a sharp upward move in the JY ( move down in USDJPY ) so I am still holding this position. My metrics have changed and may change again after the first few sessions this coming week. I will update if they do.

Entry @ .8353. Friday close was .8312. Currently down 41 ticks on this JY position.

New Targets

Target 1 = .8476
Target 2 = .8646
Target 3 = .8833


http://home.comcast.net/~slingshotme...Y_PDA_1-21.PNG





Quoting slingshot
I have a set up on the JY (Yen Futures) that I call a slingshot. It is based on price distribution and is a position trade. I am Long JYH07 at .8353. This means I think the yen is going to appreciate or said another way...the USDJPY is heading down over the short term.

Targets will fluctuate somewhat based on price action in the coming sessions. I will try to keep them updated.

Long JYH07 @ .8353

Target 1 = .8476
Target 2 = .8612
Target 3 = .8735

My risk is based on a percentage of equity.
Good Trading... Slingshot
  • #14
  • Jan 21, 2007 8:55am Jan 21, 2007 8:55am
EC Update: 1/21/2007

REMEMBER THESE ARE FUTURES NOT THE SPOT MARKET

My EC slingshot is also currently underwater. This is a tough trade. It is easy to see that the EURUSD has potential to trade down to 2750 based on shorter term studies. I am sticking with this one for now. The position is currently down 32 ticks.

Entry 1.3030. Friday close 1.2998. Down 32 ticks.

Updated targets:

Target 1 = 1.3105
Target 2 = 1.3257
Target 3 = 1.3461

http://home.comcast.net/~slingshotme...C_PDA_1-21.PNG



Quoting slingshot
I am also long the Euro FX (ECH07) since last week. I need spot to clear the critical 2950 mark. If it does not build value above this level, I suspect we may head down to 2750 or so.

The slingshot on EC developed last week. I am long from 1.3030.

Target 1 = 1.3050
Target 2 = 1.3227
Target 3 = 1.3406
Good Trading... Slingshot
  • #15
  • Last Post: Jan 21, 2007 9:01am Jan 21, 2007 9:01am
More doodling


http://home.comcast.net/~slingshotmethod/Moredoodle.PNG

Quoting slingshot
Some picture doodles...

http://home.comcast.net/~slingshotme...icture_Fun.PNG
Good Trading... Slingshot
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