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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,721
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:56am Mar 12, 2008 8:56am
anybody dancing with the gbpusd this morning? The steps seem to be manageable this morning, at least so far.
  • #1,722
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:04am Mar 12, 2008 9:04am
Quoting lilpip
anybody dancing with the gbpusd this morning? The steps seem to be manageable this morning, at least so far.
Was Long earlier now flat. Looking to go short now. Nimble is the key if going down.
My concern is the E/U & U/J which still seems to be quite strong and not in sync with the G/U if going short.
  • #1,723
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:14am Mar 12, 2008 9:14am
Now the 5 min charts looks like this.

Do you see the power of baby sitting it?

Assuming that I am crazy enough to trade like this ?
So what is my response to market and the positions now?

regards
Attached Image
  • #1,724
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:17am Mar 12, 2008 9:17am
My thinking is the trend is up, my steps were
b- 20175
s-20200
b-20154
b-20183
  • #1,725
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:19am Mar 12, 2008 9:19am
Quoting lilpip
My thinking is the trend is up, my steps were
b- 20175
s-20200
b-20154
b-20183
Trend is definitely up hence need to be nimble if going short. Holding off for now until similar weakness is seen in the E/U and strength in U/J.

Dangerous game to play but on demo so can afford to test out certain issues.
  • #1,726
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:26am Mar 12, 2008 9:26am
Quoting fti
Now the 5 min charts looks like this.

Do you see the power of baby sitting it?

Assuming that I am crazy enough to trade like this ?
So what is my response to market and the positions now?

regards
My response is I better go back to reading on how to be a babysitter, keep my mouth shut and try to learn something.
  • #1,727
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:28am Mar 12, 2008 9:28am
yes sitoca,
the idea now if caught in such a situation is to try to clear position 3 with minimal damage, give the position 1 and 2 (dead in water)away. and await new developments to recover. but definately not going long here, so its going to be a long night for this trader.

So is selling an option here, the answer is NO.
In reality we are playing a broad volatility range and awaiting new developments. I believe most on the short charts may be long and taking profits here.

regards
  • #1,728
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:31am Mar 12, 2008 9:31am
Quoting sitoca
Trend is definitely up hence need to be nimble if going short. Holding off for now until similar weakness is seen in the E/U and strength in U/J.

Dangerous game to play but on demo so can afford to test out certain issues.
I had closed my short at 20154 when I entered long.
  • #1,729
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:47am Mar 12, 2008 9:47am
Note that from here the market is neutral, and there is no possible directional play, and positions must be squared.

It is most likely to be range bound.for some time.
aside is the best position.

regards

What I am trying to point out is that market bias have to be in relates to its impulse wave. Opinions, like lines on the chart blinds. And also that 10 mins charts are too in the middle of the road to provide sufficient data for dicision making, as well as forcing for longer babysitting requirements on exposure. this would be similar for those trading day charts.
Non impluse responsive is the word, I think.

So dance lots in demo, and the market will teach you.
Feel lucky, because in my time, we learned it the hard way.

regards
  • #1,730
  • Mar 12, 2008 10:02am Mar 12, 2008 10:02am
Quoting fti
Note that from here the market is neutral, and there is no possible directional play, and positions must be squared.

It is most likely to be range bound.for some time.
aside is the best position.

regards

What I am trying to point out is that market bias have to be in relates to its impulse wave. Opinions, like lines on the chart blinds. And also that 10 mins charts are too in the middle of the road to provide sufficient data for dicision making, as well as forcing for longer babysitting requirements on exposure. this would be similar for those trading day charts.
Non impluse responsive is the word, I think.

So dance lots in demo, and the market will teach you.
Feel lucky, because in my time, we learned it the hard way.

regards
10-4
I guess the new guy picked the wrong time to dance
  • #1,731
  • Mar 12, 2008 10:03am Mar 12, 2008 10:03am
Quoting sitoca
Was Long earlier now flat. Looking to go short now. Nimble is the key if going down.
My concern is the E/U & U/J which still seems to be quite strong and not in sync with the G/U if going short.
This is market crosses tearing, when they align then the trend in the Eur/Usd will clear up for impulse push.
There are strategies to capitalise on this but don't go there yet.
Leave those piping techs to market makers.

regards
  • #1,732
  • Mar 12, 2008 10:37am Mar 12, 2008 10:37am
In respond to #1709

Lets say you bad, are zooming out and if you are trading against changed pictures, you know you are "dead in the waters"
So what must you do?
> Exit Trade at BE if possible with foreign capital. If no foreign capital then take the loss.


If you turn, you lose ground, so you have to decide to trade against trend or sink. right?
When this happens, what is the mindset to adopt?

> Exit trade and wait for opportunity to turn into direction of the current trend.

If you decide to fight instead, you are trading against the trend,
so what should be the mindset, strategy & MO?

> Do a quick rescue to exit with minimal damage. Do not overstay in the rescue too long.

Remember when you try to turn "on wind again" you work against the law of motion.
What does newtons law of motion states about the law?
Think thrust & distance.

> Assuming our initial Trend analysis is correct but we mistimed or wrongly position our entry, then when we turn into the wind, we are likely entering into a period where market is going to reverse against our position.

If you decide to turn, WHERE do you look for that fresh timing?
and if you use $$$ to turn,how much ground must be lost before the turn is effective?

> ???? Help! Need clues and hints!

Understand the MM tables.
When risk snowballs , what is the best alternative.
> Reduce position size?

Even if turning is the way to go to flow back into the trend, Whats the purpose? Whats the MO supposed to be?

> MO is the rescue sequence. Purpose to recover back the previous loss.

You try to use attack MO and the MM WILL kill your portfolio.
> ???? Help! More hints pls.

In effects , what I just demoed for you should answer the questions here.
You are in effects correct.
In reality , you need to practise the thought sequenses out under many scenerios, most you may get correct, but its the ones that you may deviate from the thought sequense that may endanger , your book.
So practise , practise and practise.
It is easy when guided, prove that you can think in this mindframe when positions are in market. You may be surprised, so practise.

regards
  • #1,733
  • Edited 10:59am Mar 12, 2008 10:44am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting sitoca
Hi Fti,

This foreign capital we are talking about is it:-

a) per trade basis or
b) Profits for that day

regards,
Sit
@ sitoca,
there is nothing written in stone.
It depends on your risk tolerance.
but try not to go beyond, 3X normal average daily P&L
or it get very scary and can build on you very swiftly, normally without your realising.
Of course at banks we go as far as daylight loss threshold,
but don't be like that, you can burn out very fast.
The toll it take onyou physically is tremendous, so try to trade cool.
esp if you do smoke and drink.
Don't force. If losses are not too much , just cut.( that is unlessyou really see opportunity, don't guess)
Once a while your resolve may be tested, thats to be expected.

By far, the fact that thetrader manages the exposure on realtime would fare better than stop loss order traders by leaps , who often will get kicked in the groin for no apparent reason, except for position gambling.

regards
  • #1,734
  • Edited 11:14am Mar 12, 2008 11:01am | Edited 11:14am
For those who want to practice in quicktime to help the dancing, try the VHands simulator. You can adjust the lot size selections in the code via meta editor. Read the tutorial that blueruby had posted in the following link, there are a few pages. Its a great way to practice reading naked charts and applying skew in both rescue and attack.

Cheers,
NP

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849
  • #1,735
  • Edited 12:14pm Mar 12, 2008 11:25am | Edited 12:14pm
Hello Dear Fti

It is just incredible how much I learn from you by reading your posts slowly and taking the time to understand them

All gems and gold for any traders who want to be successful.

Sincerely

Shreem
  • #1,736
  • Mar 12, 2008 11:58am Mar 12, 2008 11:58am
fti,

You have a pdf posted here and I don't see it. Could you provide a link?

Thanks

Daniel
  • #1,737
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:05pm Mar 12, 2008 6:05pm
Quoting fti
@ sitoca,

The toll it take on you physically is tremendous, so try to trade cool.
esp if you do smoke and drink.
Thanks for all the replies.

Yes, I do smoke but its getting too ex now and too many restrictions in place. Its discrimation against smokers!!
  • #1,738
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:07pm Mar 12, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting Daniel
fti,

You have a pdf posted here and I don't see it. Could you provide a link?

Thanks

Daniel
Hi Dan,

Fti has a window for the pdf files. It won't be there for long so if you see it, SAVE IT!! Don't make the same mistake as me.

Can't help you here as most of the time I missed it as well. Try to get it from other posters in here.
  • #1,739
  • Mar 12, 2008 6:12pm Mar 12, 2008 6:12pm
Quoting fti
@ sitoca,

The toll it take onyou physically is tremendous, so try to trade cool.
esp if you do smoke and drink.
fti, since I trade early every morning, it reminds me of my days of Zen meditation. This is a tough and demanding job for the mind, almost a spiritual practice. I guess I do Forex meditation!

Hey...I bought a hard copy of "the art of war" and a read a little every evening before sleep...I cannot image anyone doing forex without knowing what this book contains...I am slowly losing my mind!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,740
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:14pm Mar 12, 2008 7:14pm
Quoting sitoca
Thanks for all the replies.

Yes, I do smoke but its getting too ex now and too many restrictions in place. Its discrimation against smokers!!
Hi sitoca,
thats because the whole world is gearing for the kyoto protocol.
Just for info SGX will soon be trading Carbon certificates.
Soon we will have to pay to emit CO2.
Ponder having to pay to breath.
What is the world becoming?

regards
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