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  • #261
  • Mar 2, 2008 3:58am Mar 2, 2008 3:58am
So is Forex a 50/50 coin flip. NO. There are governments exchanging money for food, commodities, gold, oil, silver, economy control and influence, military weapons, peace projects, etc. There are businesses exchanging money for sales and refunds of products by the Trillions. There are banks exchanging money to invest, protect investments, loans, insurance, etc. There are traders investing short term, long term, there are future traders, news traders, fundamental traders, technical traders and wild guessers. There are revolutions, peace conferences, speakers from banks, G7 meetings, war, terrorists, rumors, news stories, assassinations, real estate, mortgages, on and on and on. To compare the forex to a coin flip is truly a fallacy. I think anyways. However, they do cause the market to bounce up and down constantly and that is the one truth that is always true in Forex.
  • #262
  • Mar 2, 2008 5:04am Mar 2, 2008 5:04am
You're definately on to something. I dunno, but maybe you don't realise that
what you're "on to" is statistical probabilties and research in that realm.

As it applies to forex, there are demonstrable data, some may call it evidence,
that certain movements in the forex markets will present and repeat themselves
every n cycles or time periods. Some swear by it. Other sacrifice virgins to it.

Retracements are my favorite study in this regard. Check out this link:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27624
it's an oldie but a goodie.

Have you ever seen a day in forex that the price of the majors did not move
atleast a few pips? Even during the holidays and when world center banks are
dead closed and practically nobody is trading, the price still moves. Fact.

Somebody's trading. Somebody's making a market. The price moves.
They trade half a day on Saturday in Hong Kong. Can't get enough.

Oanda takes trades 24/7/366 (leap year, ya know) albeit at a 10 pip spread
on weekends, but still if you have to trade 10 mio dollar yen on a Satuday nite
because your asset allocation model said so and you didn't do it on Friday
afternoon like you were supposed to and now your client base is exposed
for 10 million unhedged, you'll pay the 10 pips and be happy.

But I digress.

Statistical Probabilities. Retracements. % of time Euro hits the pivot each day.
Average Daily Range. Bruce Hornsby and the Range. All good stuff to study.

Just remember, these are tools, not rules. If something is 96% probability then
the 4 per cent will eat your ass. Don't take it for granted. The Market wants to eat.
  • #263
  • Edited 9:01am Mar 2, 2008 6:00am | Edited 9:01am
Quoting toshi
You're definately on to something. I dunno, but maybe you don't realise that
what you're "on to" is statistical probabilties and research in that realm.

As it applies to forex, there are demonstrable data, some may call it evidence,
that certain movements in the forex markets will present and repeat themselves
every n cycles or time periods. Some swear by it. Other sacrifice virgins to it.

Retracements are my favorite study in this regard. Check out this link:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27624
it's an oldie but a goodie.

Have you ever seen a day in forex that the price of the majors did not move
atleast a few pips? Even during the holidays and when world center banks are
dead closed and practically nobody is trading, the price still moves. Fact.

Somebody's trading. Somebody's making a market. The price moves.
They trade half a day on Saturday in Hong Kong. Can't get enough.

Oanda takes trades 24/7/366 (leap year, ya know) albeit at a 10 pip spread
on weekends, but still if you have to trade 10 mio dollar yen on a Satuday nite
because your asset allocation model said so and you didn't do it on Friday
afternoon like you were supposed to and now your client base is exposed
for 10 million unhedged, you'll pay the 10 pips and be happy.

But I digress.

Statistical Probabilities. Retracements. % of time Euro hits the pivot each day.
Average Daily Range. Bruce Hornsby and the Range. All good stuff to study.

Just remember, these are tools, not rules. If something is 96% probability then
the 4 per cent will eat your ass. Don't take it for granted. The Market wants to eat.
Actually these thoughts of mine are less than a week old. They come from the frustration of testing theories but not having the facts to back them up. My 7 year analysis sheet which I started last Tuesday comes from what numbers do I use and why?? It is the why I was struggling with. Now armed with statistics and analysis it goes from a gut feeling to a workable theory. There is now a logic to the system. If I know the biggest move a currency can do in 7 years and how often it does more than 200 pips I can develop a system that trades within these parameters. Second if I know what causes a currency to have a big move, I can avoid these or protect myself during these times. Obviously it has to be big news event to move like that. Therefore, beware the first friday of every month, interest rate changes and major govt. announcements about currency. If a bomb goes off somewhere in the world start closing trades or put multiple stop losses in, its possible you may be on the right side of a major move and you can win big. The last 4 days of trading I set up my parameters on 16 different trading pairs and I was a winner in demo testing on all 16 pairs. Monday I will try 8 pairs trading pennies on a live account. If my theory works I will consistently make money and on Friday the big news day I will sit out on my live account and see what happens on my demos. I will keep you posted. Thanks for your input and please reveal anything you think is a weakness. I want to know, sometimes you get so involved in an idea you get blind to its weakness which others may see.

Bob
  • #264
  • Mar 3, 2008 8:11pm Mar 3, 2008 8:11pm
I came across a problem yesterday, the figures for staying in a range are doing well but when a company increases the pip spread at news time you are not getting the even spread between orders you need for the martingale to work properly. So when it takes profit you find a spread at 30 apart instead of the 15 or 20 you had it set at. I noticed yesterday I took some losses because of this, these werent big losses or something that would break the account but it did prevent the account from making a profit for the day. I think one demo account stood at -54 and another at -9 for the day because of this. Also, this did not seem to bother the currencies with low spreads but really effected the ones with spread bigger than 5 pips, especially the Aud/jpy and the Nzd/jpy. I will keep testing and let you know. Maybe after testing, non news will still be the way to go or only currency with 5 or less pip spreads will work consistantly.
  • #265
  • Mar 5, 2008 7:20am Mar 5, 2008 7:20am
Quoting nanningbob
I came across a problem yesterday, the figures for staying in a range are doing well but when a company increases the pip spread at news time you are not getting the even spread between orders you need for the martingale to work properly. So when it takes profit you find a spread at 30 apart instead of the 15 or 20 you had it set at. I noticed yesterday I took some losses because of this, these werent big losses or something that would break the account but it did prevent the account from making a profit for the day. I think one demo account stood at -54 and another at -9 for the day because of this. Also, this did not seem to bother the currencies with low spreads but really effected the ones with spread bigger than 5 pips, especially the Aud/jpy and the Nzd/jpy. I will keep testing and let you know. Maybe after testing, non news will still be the way to go or only currency with 5 or less pip spreads will work consistantly.
Hi Nanning Bob, how r u?

I was a little busy. ... About this spread problem, can u tell what exactly hour this happened, i will try to find here if this spread cause problem to any of the accounts/system i was testing.

Maybe one solution is program inside the EA to don´t accept high spreads, and still trying put the order with a small spread, till the spread was lower.
This can cause problem to the account PipStep. So need add to EA find another number to pipstep or high the Pip lots.
  • #266
  • Mar 5, 2008 9:31am Mar 5, 2008 9:31am
I am not sure how you could do that since the broker controls the pip spread. It was the March 3 run on the NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY. They both took off over 150 pips in about 2 hours time and the spread distance increased between entrance positions. The only thing I could figure out was the pip spread increase that IBFX is famous for during news times. It was the only way I could account for it. Other currencies may have done it also but I could not tell since they did not come in at losses. The lines on my screen for the trades are gone so this may be harder to trace now.

bob
  • #267
  • Mar 5, 2008 9:41am Mar 5, 2008 9:41am
I found one, date 3.3.08 nzd/usd program set at reenter every 15 pips tp 25, it did 15 pips the 1st 4 levels and then level five spread was 25 pips@15:02 level six was 23 pips@15:22. When the tp happened only one level recorded a profit and not any of the others. The losers were greater than the one winner so the entire trade took a small loss. My program is set so there should be two winners. I dont know if this helps.

Bob
  • #268
  • Edited 6:54pm Mar 6, 2008 6:02pm | Edited 6:54pm
Thanks Bob,

I didn´t find nothing here.

But I think when the spread is higher, the buy/sell line shows in different location than PipStep distance. I have some big differences here.. can make a profitable trade become a loser one..

Regards,
  • #269
  • Mar 6, 2008 8:09pm Mar 6, 2008 8:09pm
After studying many trades there are just going to be some differences at entrance points. This may be caused by many reasons, pip spreads, internet connections, slippage, etc. I came to the conclusion that the tp 25 enter every 15 is not a good formula. I am going to a formula that seems to always work if you have it with the right currency pair. That is the reenter is 40% of the take profit (tp). So if you have tp of 50 you want a reenter of 20. This gives you a range of 240+ 12 levels deep. tp 25 reenter 10 gives you a range of 120+ 12 levels deep. When you take profit 3 trades will be in profit. 50,30,10; this combination solves the reentry not being at the exact point. So if you have a 24 reentry instead of 20 or even a 30. You have enough profit coming to cover the various reentries. Every demo I have used this formula with has been profitable unless I didnt have the right formula with the right currency pair. I now feel, except for wild days like the first friday or interest rate changes, I can safely trade GBP/jpy and GBP/CHF safely on the 50/20 formula. In 3 weeks of demo testing the account increased 150% and in two days of live testing over 15%. I will post pictures of these account later. I am going to the beach for the weekend.
  • #270
  • Mar 7, 2008 6:59am Mar 7, 2008 6:59am
Quoting nanningbob
After studying many trades there are just going to be some differences at entrance points. This may be caused by many reasons, pip spreads, internet connections, slippage, etc. I came to the conclusion that the tp 25 enter every 15 is not a good formula. I am going to a formula that seems to always work if you have it with the right currency pair. That is the reenter is 40% of the take profit (tp). So if you have tp of 50 you want a reenter of 20. This gives you a range of 240+ 12 levels deep. tp 25 reenter 10 gives you a range of 120+ 12 levels deep. When you take profit 3 trades will be in profit. 50,30,10; this combination solves the reentry not being at the exact point. So if you have a 24 reentry instead of 20 or even a 30. You have enough profit coming to cover the various reentries. Every demo I have used this formula with has been profitable unless I didnt have the right formula with the right currency pair. I now feel, except for wild days like the first friday or interest rate changes, I can safely trade GBP/jpy and GBP/CHF safely on the 50/20 formula. In 3 weeks of demo testing the account increased 150% and in two days of live testing over 15%. I will post pictures of these account later. I am going to the beach for the weekend.
Have a nice weekend! Enjoy!
I remember a beutiful video - "Wear Sun Screen" LOL
Did u know it? Here is the link, its a good advice :
Inserted Video



Look this info from Rama; martingale’s order size frequency:
PHP Code
 
Orders EURJPY   GBPUSD   USDJPY   USDCHF
   1      1088      779     385        327
   2       258       456     250       177
   3       169       211     112        97
   4        78       120      62         69
   5        32       59      38         47
   6        13       43      15         21
   7         4        18       8        11
   8         6        10       7        7
   9         0        0        0         6
TOTAL     1648      1696     877      762
The first 4 and 5 levels are the most frequency reached.
  • #271
  • Mar 8, 2008 6:49am Mar 8, 2008 6:49am
what was Rama's entry, tp and reenter based upon??
  • #272
  • Mar 9, 2008 4:39pm Mar 9, 2008 4:39pm
Quoting nanningbob
what was Rama's entry, tp and reenter based upon??
Entry based at MA 100 crossover.

I think he use at E/J, G/U n U/J, tp: 36, pipstep: 34
and G/U tp: 34, pipstep 32
Max 9 trades.

But i need confirmation.
  • #273
  • Mar 12, 2008 7:36am Mar 12, 2008 7:36am
Big move yesterday with Eur/Jpy... some accounts have negative positions.

Lets see what happen.
  • #274
  • Mar 12, 2008 8:23am Mar 12, 2008 8:23am
WOW!! What a day. Most currencies moved over 200 points and some did over 300. The 50/20 1.6 formula held and made profits all day long. Definitely the best day with this system. Trading pennies on my live account it made over 140 dollars for the day and am over 200 for the week. I have attached the live demo account of three weeks trading with the 50/20 formula on the GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY. I will also attached the live trades which have only run for 5 days. This is my second live posting, I took my 400+ from the first successful live test and if all goes well the rest of this week I will take my second 300+. Remember these are penny trades. If I was trading dimes you multiply by 10 so it is nothing to be sneezed at. I am making sure the philosophy works before I go further. Happy viewing.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DetailedStatement.gif Size: 5 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DetailedStatement A.gif Size: 5 KB
  • #275
  • Mar 13, 2008 7:51pm Mar 13, 2008 7:51pm
Looks interesting!!
  • #276
  • Mar 13, 2008 8:22pm Mar 13, 2008 8:22pm
This is an update of my 7 year high/low currencies. I have added more information and some of my testing results. Enjoy. Bob
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls 7 year currency facts.xls   24 KB | 624 downloads
  • #277
  • Mar 14, 2008 8:18am Mar 14, 2008 8:18am
Thanks for sharing.

By the way... here is a litle EA that create a CSV file, more easy to use.

Use it like a EA. (Allow DLL imports)
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 fromHistoryInFile.mq4   7 KB | 581 downloads
  • #278
  • Mar 15, 2008 11:32am Mar 15, 2008 11:32am
Hi Bob,

I like the way you work. I'll study your latest Excel sheet. I'll be running some tests on these ideas next week. Thanks for sharing your "thought process" (I'm a bit fuzzy on using the MA crossover, but I'm sure you'll elaborate more on that when you arrive at some sort of conclusion).

Oh, and HAPPY BIRTHDAY
  • #279
  • Mar 15, 2008 4:47pm Mar 15, 2008 4:47pm
Hi again,

Here are my testing results based on your latest settings (in last table posted) Here's what I did:

Period covered 1 jan to 31 dec 2007

EA used: stoch power EAshare.mq4
Parameters: all default except for TP and MAXTRADES which were set to your table's values for each pair and division by 1.6 for last 2 pairs
Modelling quality: 90% (except in 2 cases where noted)

TFs tested: 15m, 30m, 1H, 4H & daily
nb pairs tested:16

Initial capital: $5,000.00

Here's the table with the results:

http://i27.tinypic.com/2dt2252.jpg

I then proceeded with increasing initial capital for the losing pairs, and here's what I got:

http://i28.tinypic.com/21l8ha1.jpg

I'm relatively new to this system, so am uncertain about how to interpret the results. But preliminarilly (sp?) speaking, it seems like 8 out of 16 pairs are profitable using $5,000 and 0.10 lots, and 3 others would be profitable if initial capital used was increased. In 4 cases, no matter what amount of capital, they were not profitable. And in 1 case, my data was unsufficient.

The most "interesting" pairs are EURJPY and NZDUSD which grossed respectively approx. 4,000.00$ and 1,500.00$ for the year. However, the relative drawdowns are a bit distressing @ 42% and 35%.

Finally, if we exclude the losing pairs and only take into consideration the winning ones, the grand total for the year is 7,303.60, assuming all trades were effectively taken respecting MM (I'm not sure on this one), but if possible margin-wise, then it would turn out to be 146.07% for the year.

Let me know if these results make sense VS your live results. Actually, I know they don't as you mentioned that both GBPJPY and GBPUSD have "passed demo/live test for 1 month"....
  • #280
  • Mar 16, 2008 4:11am Mar 16, 2008 4:11am
Quoting Qpip
Hi Bob,

I like the way you work. I'll study your latest Excel sheet. I'll be running some tests on these ideas next week. Thanks for sharing your "thought process" (I'm a bit fuzzy on using the MA crossover, but I'm sure you'll elaborate more on that when you arrive at some sort of conclusion).

Oh, and HAPPY BIRTHDAY
I changed from using the Sto to a MA cross because I couldnt get consistant results using the Sto. Sto works great on pairs that dont trend like crazy. I use a MA cross of a 1MA with a 10MA on a 4H chart. This way you are trading with the weekly trend.

Backtesting is not reliable results. I have compared backtesting with demo live over a period of 1 month and the results are significantly different. Backtesting only helps me get, yes this might work or no this probably wont work, results. I never post backtest results. All my results are live trades with penny accounts or live demo accounts. Back testing does not take into account the changing pip spreads of companies or not getting even entrances that can happen in news stories, etc. Also, you never carry a trade over a weekend using this because of gapping of prices so this distorts backtest results. Backtests do not show closes because of margin calls. I have found out with IBFX, it will close my trades before it wipes the account out so I never experience the wipe out you show in your backtests. Lastly backtests do not take into account the ability to close trades which I occasionally do because I think it may be heading for a death trade or I dont think it will go as far as the take profit shows. I also do not trade at certain news times. I will not be live trading this tuesdays interest rate statement. The key to using this system is keeping it out of trouble. This is not a turn on and let it run EA. During a months time I will step in 3 or 4 times and thats the difference. Managing the death trade is what this is all about. You do that and this method makes a good deal of money. From March 10-13 I made 190+ dollars on two currencies trading .01 a point. I stated a second live account using the same thing and added another 100 bucks. My total risk money was less than 600 dollars. Not bad results. The only way I recommend doing this is you have to put the training time in and learn this system, its good and bad.
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