soon merlin will have to make ya a group like james16... 
I think the euro took us both out at the low of the day....
I think the euro took us both out at the low of the day....
- #441
- Jan 16, 2007 5:45pm Jan 16, 2007 5:45pm
- | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Will take it all off for Pips! | 1,105 Posts
- #442
- Jan 16, 2007 6:07pm Jan 16, 2007 6:07pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
soon merlin will have to make ya a group like james16...
I think the euro took us both out at the low of the day....
Yeah, stupid Euro got us both today but it happens
- #443
- Jan 16, 2007 6:10pm Jan 16, 2007 6:10pm
I took a glance at your charts a few posts back and was curious- do you base your trading decisions on these naked daily charts? Great work!!
Not quite yet lol - I've only been trading live a few months - bound to make some monumental mistake at some point
Yeah, stupid Euro got us both today but it happens
Trade what you see - Not what you think
- #444
- Jan 16, 2007 6:14pm Jan 16, 2007 6:14pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
I took a glance at your charts a few posts back and was curious- do you base your trading decisions on these naked daily charts? Great work!!
- #445
- Jan 16, 2007 6:16pm Jan 16, 2007 6:16pm
- | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Will take it all off for Pips! | 1,105 Posts
Not quite yet lol - I've only been trading live a few months - bound to make some monumental mistake at some point
Yeah, stupid Euro got us both today but it happens
turbo
- #446
- Jan 16, 2007 6:17pm Jan 16, 2007 6:17pm
Cool Beans- what are your MA's if you don't mind me asking! I think it's great and proves that you don't a bunch of fancy indicators to make money. Price action is King
Yes, I find the perfect combination for sound trading decisions is a naked chart & a fully clothed Steve
Trade what you see - Not what you think
- #447
- Jan 16, 2007 6:25pm Jan 16, 2007 6:25pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Cool Beans- what are your MA's if you don't mind me asking!
Red is triple exponential ma period 12
Green is time series forecast period 15
Not sure if you have TSF in MT4 - I don't really take much notice of them but it shows me at an instant when a trend could (and I emphasise could) be exhausting. Anyhow, makes the chart look pretty lol.
Kind Regards
Steve
- #448
- Jan 16, 2007 7:56pm Jan 16, 2007 7:56pm
OK, 2 current trades still open with stop losses adjusted.....
USDJPY long from 120.44 (s/l 120.11 guarantees minus 33 pips)
GBPUSD long from 1.9442 (s/l 1.9580 guarantees plus 138 pips)
3 new trades.....
USDCAD long from 1.1758 (s/l 1.1636 guarantees minus 122 pips)
EURUSD short from 1.2917 (s/l 1.2999 guarantees minus 82 pips)
USDCHF long from 1.2489 (s/l 1.2407 guarantees minus 82 pips)
Worse case scenario for these trades is minus 181 pips.
Not overly confident on these new trades and their initial stop losses but will try and explain the rationale behind them...
USDCAD - took 62 pips on the short earlier but a big reversal today due to soft CAD data & oil prices means we have to go long again. Price will need to push through 1.1800 for us to make some profit here.
EURUSD - like GU, EU pushed higher but failed to make any further gains even with poor US data. Seems like the market players don't wish us to see 1.3 on eu or over 1.97 on gu just yet.
USDCHF - took 177 pips on the long earlier but has recovered all it's losses today. Almost always will be a mirror of EU.
By the way, as an aside - did anyone else notice that USDJPY hit a high of 120.77 earlier - highest since 5th December 2005!
Kind Regards
Steve
- #451
- Jan 16, 2007 9:06pm Jan 16, 2007 9:06pm
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 3,126 Posts
Now it is my honour to welcome you to my thread
Generally speaking they will move together although EU normally at a slower rate. The only reason I'm not GU short at the moment is the fact that my long was not stopped out - I'd be very surprised if it wasn't stopped out tomorrow sometime.
It's been slightly less correlated since BOE raised rates and ECB didn't (see E/G daily chart attached) but GU normally drags EU with it wherever it goes lol. I've also attached EU & GU daily charts so you can see the correlation.
I'm probably just telling you what you already know lol.
Hope this helps
Kind Regards
Steve
Goog Trading to you.
- #452
- Jan 17, 2007 1:45am Jan 17, 2007 1:45am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Steve,
I'm late to the party but I assume without reading 455 posts that your strategy was explained in # 4 and remains that way today?
The actual entries are the important thing though as that's where the discretion part of the method is involved. Once in the trade it comes down to discipline, patience & guts to leave well alone.
Kind Regards
Steve
- #453
- Jan 17, 2007 1:51am Jan 17, 2007 1:51am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
Hi Steve,
Just thought to drop you a bravo. Great stuff.
Fellow interbankers, i have been working on steve's system to see how it works out in interbank station. The timing on the chart is different and just thought someone out there would do a back test on the daily bars. The daily bars on interbank is GMT based and so it would be meaningful to backtest with these bars as it is and assume an entry every 6am (GMT) before the start of the european session.
I will do this back test this weekend as i do not have time during the weekdays. But interestingly i could see some closeness in steve's daily candle close and the ones on interbank already although a pip difference could cause a whole change in the result.
Already, steve is stopped out on the Eur/Usd but for interbank daily chart, stop missed by some 2 pips and the long is still on as i write. Meaning long is still in full force. This would affect the short term results but the most important thing which steve emphasises and i see to be very correct is the discipline to do what you should do, adhering strictly to the rules to get the long term results desired.
By and large, the system looks promising even on the interbank charts and entry by 6am GMT despite these slight differences and a back test would be the best way to have an insight. I would just mention it here after the back test but no more details would be given further as this is purely a steve's thread and i wouldn't want to distract him. We are fully committed to supporting steve in his foward test for one year. We are here with you steve to give you all the supports you require.
Thumbs up for ya.
Great minds all here. Have a pipful year.
Regards,
Dollar-Manhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif
I'm sure you would get slightly different results but in essence the method would be the same. There is another journal thread here by Ron Hickey who took the method & is now trading it live. We often choose opposite directions but he seems to be making pips too.
You're most welcome to post any findings here but if you then choose to trade live with your own version it would be preferable if you could start your own journal
Happy backtesting.
Kind Regards
Steve
- #455
- Jan 17, 2007 1:56am Jan 17, 2007 1:56am
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
hi steviet, you have good system i think, your system is similiar with me..
Untill now how's your GBP/USD? what is your stop-loss for GBP/USD today?
Kind Regards
Steve
- #457
- Jan 17, 2007 12:50pm Jan 17, 2007 12:50pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
hey steviet,
I would like to know how you manage your risks on each trade. Do you use fixed risk percentage based on your available equity? if so what percentage? or is it variable based on parameters of your system??
thanks
I use up to 2% of my available margin on each trade which equates to up to 10% over the 5 pairs. In essence, if I lost 100 pips on each of my 5 trades at once, I'd suffer a 7 to 10% drawdown. So far I haven't had a losing trade more than 100 pips.
At the moment I have just over $200 in my account (don't laugh we all start somewhere lol). I've used $20 margin ($4 per pair), which equates to 4 cents a pip on /USD pairs and just over 3 cents a pip on USD/ pairs.
If the balance dips below $200, I would start using $15 again, once it crosses $250 I would begin to use $25 margin ($5 per pair).
To most here it may seem like play money but I should be in a position later this year and invest some money into my trading account.
The initial stop losses are often fairly large but rarely do I risk 500 pips as normally I have at least one trade still running from previous days. As the trades progress, the risk diminishes until the stop loss is in profit where I essentially have a free trade.
Does that help?
Kind Regards
Steve
- #458
- Jan 17, 2007 1:32pm Jan 17, 2007 1:32pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,709 Posts
Hi hilmy
I use up to 2% of my available margin on each trade which equates to up to 10% over the 5 pairs. In essence, if I lost 100 pips on each of my 5 trades at once, I'd suffer a 7 to 10% drawdown. So far I haven't had a losing trade more than 100 pips.
At the moment I have just over $200 in my account (don't laugh we all start somewhere lol). I've used $20 margin ($4 per pair), which equates to 4 cents a pip on /USD pairs and just over 3 cents a pip on USD/ pairs.
If the balance dips below $200, I would start using $15 again, once it crosses $250 I would begin to use $25 margin ($5 per pair).
To most here it may seem like play money but I should be in a position later this year and invest some money into my trading account.
The initial stop losses are often fairly large but rarely do I risk 500 pips as normally I have at least one trade still running from previous days. As the trades progress, the risk diminishes until the stop loss is in profit where I essentially have a free trade.
Does that help?
Kind Regards
Steve
- #459
- Jan 17, 2007 2:31pm Jan 17, 2007 2:31pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,512 Posts
oh yes it is clear. let's say it's a year from now and you find your system to be workable (which I don't doubt at all. I believe all systems are effective given the right trader). Would you consider risking more on good setups? or will you stick to the 2% rule always?
Seriously though, if I did average 10% per month for the whole year, I'd probably stick to exactly the same method. I'm a great believer in not tinkering with things that are working just fine.
Kind Regards
Steve