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Trading the Daily

  • #61
  • Mar 6, 2008 6:22pm Mar 6, 2008 6:22pm
u ar doing greay again,am following this too
  • #62
  • Mar 6, 2008 7:22pm Mar 6, 2008 7:22pm
Quoting hiswords
u ar doing greay again,am following this too
Good too see you here then, following with the Daily.
  • #63
  • Mar 8, 2008 2:54pm Mar 8, 2008 2:54pm
When we are trading from the Daily we do want to look at the bigger picture in referrence to the Daily , in the same manner we do when trading Intraday from the 1 hour and using the Daily as the point of referrence. Trading the Daily we use the Weekly chart for the same purpose now. Set up the same as our Daily chart is.
The following chart is the viewpoint of the Weekly chart that can help us detirmine what we can plan with the Daily.
Looking at the Weekly chart I have the current Uptrend marked with the appropriate fib.(from High of Nov2007 back to low of Nov 2005). From the weekly view I look at this down move Cable has been in as more of a correction still or (retracment) into this Uptrend..at least until its levels are broken and that would take a break or Weekly candle opening below 1.8618 which at this point isnt going to happen for a long time. We are already seeing the levels of this (retracement) on the weekly being tested now,since 2.0033 was broken and we will get a Daily and a Weekly candle opening above this level, we have broken a (Resistance) level which should now act as minor Support.
This Bull or support move also shows us the Major Support points for Cable currently at (1.9879/1.9775/1.9762) and it will take a break of these levels for Cable to be considered in a Bearish condition again. If price continues to test and break the Major Resistance points from the Retracement fib we want to continue to pull the high of this Support fib to raise our Major Support levels up with price. If price does not continue up from this point we look to the levels of the Support fib here as the possible bounce points or buy back in points. We will do this from the Daily chart with the plan of the weekly fresh in the back of our minds.
Ideally we want at some point the levels of the Support fib to be tested and if the bounce occurs we have a pretty good idea as to where price can rally to...from this point in time we see a test and bounce from these current levels price has the potential to reach 2.0550/2.0750.
The stochastic indicator may be showing an (overbought) condition but cant really be trusted just yet it can remain there for weeks and price can continue to rally, we only want to use it when we see a short condition on the chart itself before looking to it for confirmation.
I added a template for the Weekly if you dont want to have to set one up and its in MT4 platform format.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weeklycable.gif Size: 27 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl weeklycable.tpl   5 KB | 384 downloads
  • #64
  • Mar 8, 2008 3:02pm Mar 8, 2008 3:02pm
Last week proved to very profitable after a slow start and an initial loss but sticking to the rules we found we ended strongly with a positive 216 pips from the 2 trades. So far it appears that we are on the right track but its proof over time and all the conditions that we will face over the next 6 months to a year to fully understand the capabilities of the forward testing.
Later this weekend or early Monday I will post the new Daily chart and my thoughts on the upcoming week that I will be looking for, and I will try and make the appropriate video's and get them posted for this thread as time permits.
  • #65
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:49pm Mar 8, 2008 4:49pm
Hey Bo,

When you have a moment would you please clarify the 3 templates I see on the chart above. Two.. Blue lines and White lines are being used. One.. with Black lines is being stored.

In looking at them, I know they are used in different time frames or for different reasons. Also each has its own nomenclature for the fib lines. Could you explain the reason for the terminology? I mean it's a way to remind you, I am sure, of what time frame is being indicated, but also what action to take or ignor.

If what I ask is in a post or video somewhere, just point. Thanks.
  • #66
  • Mar 8, 2008 6:04pm Mar 8, 2008 6:04pm
Quoting Lou
Hey Bo,

When you have a moment would you please clarify the 3 templates I see on the chart above. Two.. Blue lines and White lines are being used. One.. with Black lines is being stored.

In looking at them, I know they are used in different time frames or for different reasons. Also each has its own nomenclature for the fib lines. Could you explain the reason for the terminology? I mean it's a way to remind you, I am sure, of what time frame is being indicated, but also what action to take or ignor.

If what I ask is in a post or video somewhere, just point. Thanks.
This chart is just what I am using for the Weekly viewpoint. The fibs you see are very similar to what you see me use in my Fibonacci thread as well as the application of them. The ones shown here are the UptrendFib(same as the one on used on the Daily chart)
and since this is a Weekly view instead of the Daily what we see as the Downtrend fib is merely a correction move on the Weekly, thus the use of the (purple) Retracement fib because this is the last move in price counter to this 2 year long up trend.
To measure the other movements I use the same tactic as seen in the video I posted on trading S&R with the GBP/Yen. By using 2 fibs as a support and resistance type tactic. The Silver fib for bullish moves as they will follow price with the support levels and the Black fib to follow bearish moves with that will pull resistance levels behind price.
Since the last moves of price on the Weekly have been bullish I am pulling the (Silver) Support fib thus giving me my Support levels as price attempts to make its way up as well as provide the possible target ranges into the the Larger Downtrend and Retracement fibs levels.
We want to use the picture created from the Weekly chart in order to plan our trades on the Daily chart.
The other lines are the buy and sell point marker lines (1 red and 1 blue)
  • #67
  • Mar 8, 2008 9:03pm Mar 8, 2008 9:03pm
Thank you. Much appreciated.
  • #68
  • Mar 9, 2008 10:12pm Mar 9, 2008 10:12pm
Hi Bo. Just want to say thank you for what you are doing here. I'm going to be following along and look forward to learning from you even more. I'm learning a lot from Skunny and from your Fib thread. I don't want to come across as a method hopper...but I do think the more I can learn about Fibs, the more I might be able to understand how I could use them effectively. I see this daily stuff as a simple yet basic approach, which is what i still need.

Can I ask if you will be updating the templates as we go along?

Thanks!

GT
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #69
  • Mar 9, 2008 11:53pm Mar 9, 2008 11:53pm
Quoting GridTrader
Hi Bo. Just want to say thank you for what you are doing here. I'm going to be following along and look forward to learning from you even more. I'm learning a lot from Skunny and from your Fib thread. I don't want to come across as a method hopper...but I do think the more I can learn about Fibs, the more I might be able to understand how I could use them effectively. I see this daily stuff as a simple yet basic approach, which is what i still need.

Can I ask if you will be updating the templates as we go along?

Thanks!

GT
Skunny wont steer you wrong, so your on the right track with him. And yes I will update this and post current templates, I will try and get an update as I see something breaking, Im waiting currently to see if Cable is going to retrace any of this movement from the end of last week first. Its not necessarily method hopping if you take from the things you learn and apply it to your trading successfully, you take what you learn from others that you find works for you and throw the rest away.
  • #70
  • Edited 1:53pm Mar 10, 2008 1:35pm | Edited 1:53pm
Set my sell stop and my buy stop earlier this morning just before the US session, for the buy stop i used the high of Friday and for the sell stop the low of Sunday. The high looks to have been tested during the London session but the 1 hour Intraday levels from friday were also holding indicating some ranging. anyway the sell stop has been picked up and Im only targeting the Support levels from this last move up Cable has made since the weakness in the dollar i feel is still too strong only time will tell and we'll have to make the decision to hold the trade or set a target if price reaches that area of 2.0033(Short fib level of DownTrend fib) to around 1.9970 (pivot of the last Bulish move on the Daily). Checking the 4 hour and 1 hour at the close of the day to make a new assessment of the position each day as we'll as early in the AM just before US session opens up.
Ive updated the 1st post with the open position.
The 4 hour is showing price to be rolling over as well as the 1 Hour but with the 1 hour Stoch bottoming out early we could see this stall or even rebound to test the current Intraday levels.
Waiting on the close of today now to re-assess the position.
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  • #71
  • Mar 10, 2008 5:28pm Mar 10, 2008 5:28pm
I've recently started to follow your thread(s) and must say I admire your effort to educate fellow traders! Keep up the good work!
  • #72
  • Mar 10, 2008 7:47pm Mar 10, 2008 7:47pm
We get the lower Daily close and open now and we'll have to wait it out to see if we can survive the retracement now if any occurs. Both 4hour and 1 hour show price is ready to attempt a rally now and we look to the Intraday levels of today to provide enough resistance to hold price and keep the immediate bias to bearish. A rejection from the 1hour Intraday levels will be a good sign, we could fall a little farther and if we get another Daily open and close lower we can move the stoploss up closer to price maybe even enough to protect some profits. An open on the 1 hour above the Intraday long fib level will be a bad sign and the previous highs could be tested again putting the trade in jeopordy.
The target range we are watching is now within reach and well have to pay closer attention to price if the DownTrend Short fib level is tested a break there and we could possibly hold this a little longer than expected, we would have to make a day by day analysis to decide every day around the open and maybe once again early in the AM before the US session opens. Since those are the only times we are holding ourselves to be able to make adjustments.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #73
  • Mar 11, 2008 8:05am Mar 11, 2008 8:05am
I'll assume that sudden turn south was news related, trade balance...So from the description on the site, positive trade balance means more exports and better dollar value. The projected new trade balance was a few percent lower than last value, which is a negative outlook, but the actual value was not quite AS much lower as expected, so although still a lower new value, it could be seen as a positive news item, sending the dollar up and cable down...

That's why I can never figure out what the news really impacted...projected and actual news were both bad so you could say the dollar should fall and cable rise, or you can say the news wasn't AS bad as it COULD have been so dollar rose and cable fell. It's all mish mash to me. All it means is beware during that time.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #74
  • Mar 11, 2008 4:04pm Mar 11, 2008 4:04pm
Quoting Thexder
I'll assume that sudden turn south was news related, trade balance...So from the description on the site, positive trade balance means more exports and better dollar value. The projected new trade balance was a few percent lower than last value, which is a negative outlook, but the actual value was not quite AS much lower as expected, so although still a lower new value, it could be seen as a positive news item, sending the dollar up and cable down...

That's why I can never figure out what the news really impacted...projected and actual news were both bad so you could say the dollar should fall and cable rise, or you can say the news wasn't AS bad as it COULD have been so dollar rose and cable fell. It's all mish mash to me. All it means is beware during that time.
The weakness in the Dollar apparently is actually helping in respect to the deficit since the lower value of the dollar against the other majors results in higher import prices and lower export costs lowering the monthly deficit. The news was actually positive for the US (and they fudged the previous numbers again from last month to better than expected)but im not sold thats the only reason it gained some ground back today as I feel it may be short lived. Something to remember is the price is moving to the upcoming news prior to its release sometimes days or longer before its released "Buy the Rumor,Sell the Fact".
But yes trading Intraday its best sometimes to stay clear of trading during news releases, then mop up after everything settles down.
  • #75
  • Mar 11, 2008 4:18pm Mar 11, 2008 4:18pm
3rd trade is now completed as 2.0033 target was met. So far so good. Looking at today now that we are out of the market we may have to sit a day out now for things to set up again, as things stand right now the entry's in either a short or a long are way off from price so we need to see some more here to set our entry points. What Im looking for is a higher low so we can set a short (sell stop) since the immediate bias is short we are more apt to seek the short trade than the long trade and a higher low tomorrow without the high breaking will aid in this, If we miss a trade here so what, there will be another and to be successful we need patience now for the market to come back to us.
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  • #76
  • Mar 11, 2008 7:26pm Mar 11, 2008 7:26pm
Quoting SteveTrader
Hi, thanks for starting this thread, I shall be following along as I am in the situation you describe i.e. a day job!
Me, too, Bo. Thanks for sharing.
  • #77
  • Mar 11, 2008 8:32pm Mar 11, 2008 8:32pm
Quoting ZInvestor
Me, too, Bo. Thanks for sharing.

Your welcome, I just hope we can get something established here that can be traded by setting up at the open of each day and maybe some analysis each morning to update or look for possible problems with the trades.
  • #78
  • Mar 11, 2008 11:42pm Mar 11, 2008 11:42pm
I vanish for a few days and come back to this, a bunch of reading to catch up on! This looks like it will evolve into a great thread, I am looking forward to it. My ultimate goal is to trade daily or even less and have free time rather than constantly scalping and babysiting my trades through whipsaws like I have been doing.
  • #79
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:03pm Mar 12, 2008 9:03pm
Quoting Jared
I vanish for a few days and come back to this, a bunch of reading to catch up on! This looks like it will evolve into a great thread, I am looking forward to it. My ultimate goal is to trade daily or even less and have free time rather than constantly scalping and babysiting my trades through whipsaws like I have been doing.

Good to see you back then. I wish I could vansh for a few days.
  • #80
  • Mar 12, 2008 9:27pm Mar 12, 2008 9:27pm
I have run into some unexpected health issues and may not be around every day to post but i will do what i can as time allows. Until then just follow along based on the rules in a demo and keep backtesting as well. Ive taken another long position from 2.0199, actually cheated a little since i did watch it today and got in a few pips early from the 1 hour chart this morning but the difference is only a few pips. I would look to 410/460 area now that the Downtrend Pivot has been broken by a Daily candle opening above it today, I posted this in the first post as current position. Stop Loss initially of 2.0050.
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