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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,481
  • Feb 25, 2008 10:47am Feb 25, 2008 10:47am
Quoting Bernanke_Sr
yess 9900 is a good target... but at this point i am staying put. usdcad is very weird sometimes but brings a nice income as well...

anyone knows the reason of such a fall without any canadian news release?
Crude's at $100.00
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,482
  • Feb 26, 2008 4:06am Feb 26, 2008 4:06am
what crude!!
Crude is $100 since last three weeks, this pair is still trying to find direction in the last week of month, it will be very volatile next three days!!

after that we will see the clear direction where it is going next few weeks.
  • #2,483
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:21pm Feb 26, 2008 12:21pm
whats happening to USDCAD, any one...
  • #2,484
  • Feb 26, 2008 6:17pm Feb 26, 2008 6:17pm
Quoting RWorld
what crude!!
Crude is $100 since last three weeks, this pair is still trying to find direction in the last week of month, it will be very volatile next three days!!

after that we will see the clear direction where it is going next few weeks.

So you think it will go crazy for the next three day's on this pair huh? Do you think it will do a bit of a retracement at all ?. Maybe a 618 at all?
  • #2,485
  • Feb 27, 2008 3:51am Feb 27, 2008 3:51am
usdcad finding a bottom i guess- upmove towards 104.80 is inthe cards but i dont know at this stage what is the catalyst for that. canadian banks are going to announce writedowns today ? is that it or further rate cuts or worldwide recession/ risk aversion/ who knows?
  • #2,486
  • Mar 1, 2008 12:23am Mar 1, 2008 12:23am
Seems like downtrend is about to resume further. I'll be looking for a short opportunity this comming week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD2008.jpg Size: 48 KB
  • #2,487
  • Mar 1, 2008 4:16am Mar 1, 2008 4:16am
Quoting MackS10
Seems like downtrend is about to resume further. I'll be looking for a short opportunity this comming week.
Hi MackS!

The weekly formation is not yet ripe i.m.o. and the formation on the daily has played out far beyond expectation (Was nice though!).
On the other hand being short is not wrong from here as I see it, so we may just stick to it for some time.

Greetz & nice weekend!
Gnat
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADbeardaily01.jpg Size: 94 KB
  • #2,488
  • Mar 1, 2008 11:22am Mar 1, 2008 11:22am
Quoting Gnat
Hi MackS!

The weekly formation is not yet ripe i.m.o. and the formation on the daily has played out far beyond expectation (Was nice though!).
On the other hand being short is not wrong from here as I see it, so we may just stick to it for some time.

Greetz & nice weekend!
Gnat
Nice Chart. I'll keep your idea in mind to get in short, I am currently out watching for an opportunity to short it, perhaps this comming week or the following one. I totally agree with you on a retrace from here. Lets stay tunned!
  • #2,489
  • Mar 2, 2008 1:13pm Mar 2, 2008 1:13pm
Im actually seeing some good buy opportunities on this pair. It had a nice strong bounce off of 9720 (50% fib line) and is heading up. I got in at 98 and looking for 1.00. From there though Im gonna stay clear and watch to see where it goes.. Loonie weakness is what Im excpecting this week, interest rate statement SHOULD hopefully be bad news for the loonie.
Jeff
  • #2,490
  • Mar 7, 2008 6:09am Mar 7, 2008 6:09am
Cad headed to 9200 again
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,491
  • Mar 7, 2008 12:33pm Mar 7, 2008 12:33pm
WTF? The employment numbers are all against the pair and it spikes up 150 pips??? I'm starting to lose faith in rational analysis. Whatever, I'm holding on to my short for the next 10 days, come what may... 0.96 is still possible soon if Bernanke cuts big again.
  • #2,492
  • Mar 7, 2008 2:25pm Mar 7, 2008 2:25pm
WATCH OUT !!
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #2,493
  • Mar 7, 2008 3:05pm Mar 7, 2008 3:05pm
Quoting Jurrasic
WATCH OUT !!
Sorry if this seems rude, but do you have anything actually valuable to add to the discussion?
  • #2,494
  • Mar 7, 2008 3:40pm Mar 7, 2008 3:40pm
Seemed it started falling, well guess next week..

Have a great weekend.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #2,495
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:18pm Mar 7, 2008 5:18pm
Quoting MackS10
Nice Chart. I'll keep your idea in mind to get in short, I am currently out watching for an opportunity to short it, perhaps this comming week or the following one. I totally agree with you on a retrace from here. Lets stay tunned!
Hallo Macks!

Hope you made it through the week. It certainly was a tough ride! The short really only came to its fruition today and only after the amazing Canadian Unemployment figures.
As this event was needed to really move the trades into profit, I am really undecided about the coming days. We may look at a bit of a bullish reaction first. Maybe Monday will tell us!

Have a good weekend!
Ciao
Gnat
Attached Image
  • #2,496
  • Mar 8, 2008 8:28am Mar 8, 2008 8:28am
one way only before rate decision
Next target is .9500
  • #2,497
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:13pm Mar 10, 2008 1:13pm
Week has been great so far with the usd/cad, keep in touch to see where it goes from here! I am also looking for retrace again now. I will post a diagram of what i see later on today.
Cheers.



Quoting Gnat
Hallo Macks!

Hope you made it through the week. It certainly was a tough ride! The short really only came to its fruition today and only after the amazing Canadian Unemployment figures.
As this event was needed to really move the trades into profit, I am really undecided about the coming days. We may look at a bit of a bullish reaction first. Maybe Monday will tell us!

Have a good weekend!
Ciao
Gnat
  • #2,498
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:27pm Mar 10, 2008 1:27pm
USD is stronger across the board today, not just CAD - excellent time to short before news releases this week. The only asset class depreciating faster than USD that I can think of is a new car.
  • #2,499
  • Mar 10, 2008 3:54pm Mar 10, 2008 3:54pm
Unbelievable that oil is at $108 and USDCAD just retraced 200 pips to the upside in the past 2 sessions. I'll admit, this completely broken oil/loonie correlation is perplexing. If we get a test on parity, I might have to back up the truck on the short side.
  • #2,500
  • Mar 10, 2008 6:48pm Mar 10, 2008 6:48pm
I think the trade balance numbers should give the pair a nudge back in the expected direction, i.e. down. BTW, has anyone noticed the definition of trade balance as given in the calendar is incorrect? It's the difference between export and import volumes, not the other way around.
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