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The Bat...a strategy by Team Aphid

  • #121
  • Jan 17, 2007 8:30am Jan 17, 2007 8:30am
Hi Michael. Thank you for your generous offer. But we believe FF is the best place to learn and we are trying to contribute as much as we can. And if you think you have good things to give, why don't you share your ideas here as we do so that everybody in the forum will try to improve them. Thanks again.

Quoting forexmichael
Hi, my name is Michael! Is great to see such a great team on forex factory. i would like to join your team and be a part. I think i have good things to give and more to learn from you. What should i do to be a part? Thank you! Succes in your trades!
  • #122
  • Jan 17, 2007 8:33am Jan 17, 2007 8:33am
As TeamAphid, we totally agree with you. Thanks.

Quoting smjones
So you are going to add discretion to a mechanical system? I do not think you will be trading this system anymore, if you were to do this.... Yours would be a hybird.

For me, I think I would trade it as is for a while and get a feel for it behind the wheel so to speak.
  • #123
  • Jan 17, 2007 8:39am Jan 17, 2007 8:39am
Current blue line is at 1.957660 right now on Alpari. But the previous blue line (ended on Jan 16th at 15:00hr) was at 1.960460. We, all team members, see the same values now.

Quoting kenmania
I know they can't be perfect, but we're talking about a thirty pip discrepency. I'm looking at IBFX and Alpari demo platforms which are nearly the same, but my numbers are still way different than yours.

I just wanted to figure out if I'm doing something wrong with my setup or whatever. Something has to be different other than the data feeds.
  • #124
  • Jan 17, 2007 8:41am Jan 17, 2007 8:41am
Quoting TeamAphid
We are attaching Feb 2006 backtest results so that you can compare.
would be very nice if you could backtest and send more months...very usefull for understanding how system is working...and be convinced about long term profitability...

I think that for a good programmer, building an expert should be possible


thanks for sharing this nice and original ssytem


emeric
  • #125
  • Jan 17, 2007 8:43am Jan 17, 2007 8:43am
We will. Please see post #120.


Quoting emeric33
would be very nice if you could backtest and send more months...very usefull for understanding how system is working...and be convinced about long term profitability...

I think that for a good programmer, building an expert should be possible


thanks for sharing this nice and original ssytem


emeric
  • #126
  • Jan 17, 2007 9:29am Jan 17, 2007 9:29am
Thom,
Thanks for the great wav. Alert. Is it possible to add an email option? While I am tied to a computer at work all day long my Trade Station is set up at home. I use VNC to access it but the sound doesn’t work over the Viewer. It would also be very helpful to receive an email alert at night while sleeping. I envy those who have been successful enough to trade full time.

I have tried to learn to program or at least modify code before to add the email functionality but with no luck. Can anyone suggest a programming class that would best prepare me for MT4 code?

In this case it would be best if the alert could be set up to email when ever price crosses the blue or red line.

Thanks for all of your help over the years.
  • #127
  • Jan 17, 2007 9:33am Jan 17, 2007 9:33am
Hi all!!!

It's very, very interesting to find correct point for "Swing" dot. It's very, very interesting to make hand backtesting. But, IMHO, we have a smaaaal problem.

TA asks that we try to make this system better with our ideas. I think we must to start not from looking for Swing dots or trying to find "best month of 2006"
We must to make correct MM system for the Bat!
It must be first.

Look at this.
Trade 1 entry 9337 exit 9373 SL=88
Trade 2 entry 9307 exit 9337 SL=58
Trade 3 entry 9289 exit 9337 SL=40
Trade 4 entry 9289 exit 9337 SL=40
Stop loss 9249
If we open or trade on Trade#1 dot with our full lots with 2or3% Risk by Deposit we can't to trade Trade2,3,4 - we HAVE FULL RISK from the beginning.
Example for understanding
Our depo = $10 000
Risk 3% (I’m sorry Fiji J)
1. Take all lots. With mini lots
Our lots for Trade1 = $300/88=3
Our lots for Trade2 = $300/58=5
Our lots for Trade3 = $300/40=7
Our lots for Trade4 = $300/40=7
AND!!! If we will take all this lots we will have 12% Risk!!!
2. Lots distribution. With micro lots
Our lots for all Trades = $300/88=30
We can distribute it pro rata
2.1. For Trade#1=coef 1
30/4=7
Our lots for Trade1 = 7
Our lots for Trade2 = 7
Our lots for Trade3 = 7
Our lots for Trade4 = 7
But we have problem again. We close it on Trade#1 price and loss our money that we can get from trend.
Yes, we don’t know about future prices. But we don’t know about future when we trade Trade2,3,4. We can book profit from 4 lots or we can get loss from 4 lots.
I think we must to look the other way

2.2.For Trade#1=coef 2 (TA told that we trade Trade1 with 2 lots)
30/5=6
Our lots for Trade1 = 12
Our lots for Trade2 = 6
Our lots for Trade3 = 6
Our lots for Trade4 = 6
In this we can’t book our profit!!!

3. Look again (I know, I’ve bothered you J)
Trade 2 entry 9307 exit 9337 SL=58pips TP=30pips P/L=0.51
Trade 3 entry 9289 exit 9337 SL=40 TP=48 P/L=1.13
Trade 4 entry 9289 exit 9337 SL=40 TP=48 P/L=1.13
Total p/l=0.9
It’s not very well. We must take trades with p/l>1 (>2better)

Thanks!
It’s only my IMHO and not criticism – I want to make this better!
Max
  • #128
  • Jan 17, 2007 10:03am Jan 17, 2007 10:03am
This may be a bit of an over simplification, but if you've determined your max risk per trade to be 3%, then you should simply open each of the 4 possible lots with .75%. This will bring the max risk for a full monty position to your desired 3%.

Quoting maximus
Hi all!!!

It's very, very interesting to find correct point for "Swing" dot. It's very, very interesting to make hand backtesting. But, IMHO, we have a smaaaal problem.

TA asks that we try to make this system better with our ideas. I think we must to start not from looking for Swing dots or trying to find "best month of 2006"
We must to make correct MM system for the Bat!
It must be first.

Look at this.
Trade 1 entry 9337 exit 9373 SL=88
Trade 2 entry 9307 exit 9337 SL=58
Trade 3 entry 9289 exit 9337 SL=40
Trade 4 entry 9289 exit 9337 SL=40
Stop loss 9249
If we open or trade on Trade#1 dot with our full lots with 2or3% Risk by Deposit we can't to trade Trade2,3,4 - we HAVE FULL RISK from the beginning.
Example for understanding
Our depo = $10 000
Risk 3% (I’m sorry Fiji J)
1. Take all lots. With mini lots
Our lots for Trade1 = $300/88=3
Our lots for Trade2 = $300/58=5
Our lots for Trade3 = $300/40=7
Our lots for Trade4 = $300/40=7
AND!!! If we will take all this lots we will have 12% Risk!!!
2. Lots distribution. With micro lots
Our lots for all Trades = $300/88=30
We can distribute it pro rata
2.1. For Trade#1=coef 1
30/4=7
Our lots for Trade1 = 7
Our lots for Trade2 = 7
Our lots for Trade3 = 7
Our lots for Trade4 = 7
But we have problem again. We close it on Trade#1 price and loss our money that we can get from trend.
Yes, we don’t know about future prices. But we don’t know about future when we trade Trade2,3,4. We can book profit from 4 lots or we can get loss from 4 lots.
I think we must to look the other way

2.2.For Trade#1=coef 2 (TA told that we trade Trade1 with 2 lots)
30/5=6
Our lots for Trade1 = 12
Our lots for Trade2 = 6
Our lots for Trade3 = 6
Our lots for Trade4 = 6
In this we can’t book our profit!!!

3. Look again (I know, I’ve bothered you J)
Trade 2 entry 9307 exit 9337 SL=58pips TP=30pips P/L=0.51
Trade 3 entry 9289 exit 9337 SL=40 TP=48 P/L=1.13
Trade 4 entry 9289 exit 9337 SL=40 TP=48 P/L=1.13
Total p/l=0.9
It’s not very well. We must take trades with p/l>1 (>2better)

Thanks!
It’s only my IMHO and not criticism – I want to make this better!
Max
Michael fxgorilla
  • #129
  • Jan 17, 2007 10:28am Jan 17, 2007 10:28am
Hi TeamAphid

I have been reading through this post with interest and wanted to thank you for THE BAT method and to assure you of my support for the team.

Best Regards,

Cosmo II
  • #130
  • Jan 17, 2007 10:33am Jan 17, 2007 10:33am
Quoting fxgorilla
This may be a bit of an over simplification, but if you've determined your max risk per trade to be 3%, then you should simply open each of the 4 possible lots with .75%. This will bring the max risk for a full monty position to your desired 3%.
Michael

This is correct for the first part of his comments which is MM, what about the 2nd part which is the issue of risk reward ratio and in the case of trades 2,3 and 4 it is less than 1?
Regards
  • #131
  • Jan 17, 2007 10:39am Jan 17, 2007 10:39am
Hi Team Aphid,

Thanks and nice system. Definetly thinking outside the box.

Just a question and I'm sure you have thought of this. If we look at the last trade on the blue line, we placed the FIB lines on and saw that the 61.8 and 38 lines were outside the red forming line (if I am understanding your system correctly). In your work would this be a low probability trade? Yesterday range was also low and we had a breakthrough of the blue line late in the day. Would these two signs signal a lower percentage trade?
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  • #132
  • Jan 17, 2007 11:05am Jan 17, 2007 11:05am
Mark

The fib levels which you mention cannot fall outside the red line, because at the time you put on the fibs the forming red line has been the horizontal bit at the top only.

I hope I am not mistaken, of course the Team will reply in due course.
Regards
  • #133
  • Jan 17, 2007 11:17am Jan 17, 2007 11:17am
Quoting howard
Mark

The fib levels which you mention cannot fall outside the red line, because at the time you put on the fibs the forming red line has been the horizontal bit at the top only.

I hope I am not mistaken, of course the Team will reply in due course.
Howard,

Good point my mistake. But what about this one from the 9th of Jan.
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  • #134
  • Jan 17, 2007 11:26am Jan 17, 2007 11:26am
Quoting Markj
Howard,

Good point my mistake. But what about this one from the 9th of Jan.

You are right on this one, one of the fib lines is outside the red line at the time when you placed them.
Regards
  • #135
  • Jan 17, 2007 11:31am Jan 17, 2007 11:31am
Team Aphid,

In your trading would you also take counter trend trades? As with these two.
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  • #136
  • Jan 17, 2007 11:38am Jan 17, 2007 11:38am
Hi MarkJ & Howard,

You have now got me curious as well!

What I'm trying to figure out from your examples is that at the time of trade entry, the opposite bat line doesn't start to show up until the next hour.

So can you really tell if the fib levels are outside of the bat line before entering a trade?

Where did I get off track? Trying to ponder probabilities as well!

Thanks,

Lyn

Quoting howard
You are right on this one, one of the fib lines is outside the red line at the time when you placed them.
  • #137
  • Jan 17, 2007 11:53am Jan 17, 2007 11:53am
Quoting TeamAphid
Current blue line is at 1.957660 right now on Alpari. But the previous blue line (ended on Jan 16th at 15:00hr) was at 1.960460. We, all team members, see the same values now.
LOL- I was looking at yesterday's line. The new line- (1.957) was below the screen- I had to "pinch" it to see it.

Sorry for the grief.

ken
Is your SL my TP?
  • #138
  • Jan 17, 2007 12:13pm Jan 17, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting lmills2
Hi MarkJ & Howard,

You have now got me curious as well!

What I'm trying to figure out from your examples is that at the time of trade entry, the opposite bat line doesn't start to show up until the next hour.

So can you really tell if the fib levels are outside of the bat line before entering a trade?

Where did I get off track? Trying to ponder probabilities as well!

Thanks,

Lyn

Hi Lyn

That is what we are seeing on the chart historically after the event, we have not seen it in real time, the Team who have watched it live at the time would be in a better position to explain what decision should be taken if we come across a case where fibs are located outside the red or blue lines.
Regards
  • #139
  • Jan 17, 2007 12:50pm Jan 17, 2007 12:50pm
Quoting fxgorilla
This may be a bit of an over simplification, but if you've determined your max risk per trade to be 3%, then you should simply open each of the 4 possible lots with .75%. This will bring the max risk for a full monty position to your desired 3%.


1.Yes. You are right! I describe it in my post on 2.1. and 2.2.
But you must don't forget that if you don't resieve maximum from your invest. capital you should to change your Tactics.
If you can to take 3% Risk on your depo in this enter tactics (i don't know is this word correct) you take only .75% and LOST your money. Not get=lost.
2.TA told that they sell 4 lots on Trade#1 for booking profit. If we use .75% per enter it's true. But TA told that they take 2lots on Trade#1.
In this case you CAN't book your profit.
3.When we get loss we get full loss with 4 lots. When me get profit we get full profit on 1 lots.

I don't want to say that the BAT system is bad system.
NOT!
It's very very fine...idea for my and system for other people.
Why idea and not system?
For my IMHO system must have:
3.1Entry rules – the BAT has it – very simple and based on real market volatility (it means that it will be work not only on Forex)
3.2.Exit rules - the BAT has it – very simple and based on real market volatility
3.3.Stop loss rules - the BAT has it – very simple and based on real market volatility
3.4.MM system – This MM system must make big profits and small loses – RR must be>1. The BAT MM rules has correct enter but not correct exit (again – it’s MY IMHO)
3.5 Rules of management of open trade – system must tell you what you should do when your trade is in development – the BAT don’t tells it.
I want to build all this “breaks” and get System
I believe that TA want too ;-)
  • #140
  • Jan 17, 2007 1:41pm Jan 17, 2007 1:41pm
Markj, here is my understanding, referring to my annotations on your chart below.

Enter 1 lot (“trade #1”) short at point #1. Protective stop is at magenta line (added by me, and supposed to be 10 pips above swing point, but not necessarily drawn to scale).

When red line forms on bar after open, it is nearer to price action than the magenta line, hence the red line now takes over as the definitive stop (shown by my drawing magenta line to meet red line).

At point #2, price has retraced to the 61.8 line, hence enter 1 lot (“trade #2”).

Price obviously doesn’t quite reach red line at point #3. If it had done, then both positions would have been stopped out, and we would enter 1 lot long on the phase change. Because the red line formed below the 38.2 line, trades #3 and #4 can never be taken.

At point #4, price reaches 100.0, hence trade #2 is closed out at a profit.

Once price reaches the 161.8 line (point #5), no more trades may be added, even if price subsequently retraces back to 61.8 again (the “BAT range trade” scenario in the PDF).

When price hits the red line at point #6, trade #1 is closed out (at a profit – nice!), and the change of phase means that we now enter 1 lot long, with new protective stop at swing low, and the process repeats itself.

My understanding is that the initial stop (represented by the magenta line), and then the trailing red/blue line act as a full and final stop for all trades entered thus far during the current phase. Once the red/blue line moves "inside" the 38.2 and 61.8 fibo lines, additional trades can not be taken, because when price hits this line, all trades are closed, a new phase is begun and we start entering trades in the opposite direction.

That is my understanding; I leave it to TA to confirm. Many thanks TA for sharing this novel method. A very interesting approach: an easy-to-follow, tightly-defined system that can potentially profit in both trending and ranging markets has definitely caught my attention!

David
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