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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #67,121
  • Mar 10, 2008 12:32pm Mar 10, 2008 12:32pm
Quoting jarroo
Check out his thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=43255

thanks jaroo....yup i already found this thread.......do you go in there?
kim
  • #67,122
  • Mar 10, 2008 12:33pm Mar 10, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting pipdiddy
I am expecting a bounce at 204. I am bullish for this week.
if we are closed 4h @ 204 i think i'll not see more 207 208 before 199
  • #67,123
  • Mar 10, 2008 12:34pm Mar 10, 2008 12:34pm
Quoting kimmy
thanks jaroo....yup i already found this thread.......do you go in there?
kim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #67,124
  • Mar 10, 2008 12:35pm Mar 10, 2008 12:35pm
Quoting Scrat
very simple h4 chart showing the breakout. the bias is down, not up.
Hey Scrat, nice chart! How low would we have to go before you would consider this support area invalidated? Looking back on my charts, it's not that easy to break this overall area. Any thoughts are definitely appreciated. Thanks for the input!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #67,125
  • Mar 10, 2008 12:47pm Mar 10, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting moneymagnet
looking at that as well but my stochs are approaching oversold levels ( i know that doesnt mean alot with the pj) but i am expecting a possible retest of that breakout TL at least. we shall see
I see that stoch is near oversold but still room for more down..... by the Way 204.70 is very strong.... and it fails to cross it.... we have to wait and see .... still 14 minute to next candle and 1 Hour to New 4h candle.... But Momentum now is showing on 4H more Down and just a retracement could occure
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #67,126
  • Mar 10, 2008 12:47pm Mar 10, 2008 12:47pm
I really don't think 204.5 will be breached today. I think this lower trendline will hold as 1h is now oversold and looks to be turning. Uj seems to be well supported in the 101.5 area and 62 ema is holding well on the gu. Lets see what happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #67,127
  • Mar 10, 2008 12:55pm Mar 10, 2008 12:55pm
Quoting mike w
Nice analysis Steve! What do you see as a retracement for G/U? I'm looking at daily charts and drew out a fib from around 1.9717 to around 2.0225 roughly. THat plots out a 50% retracement at around 1.9960-70. The daily 5 sma is at 2.0010 or so and the weekly is way down there around 1.9860-70. That's spelling out a solid retracement possibility for the short term (upcoming days) IMO.

Now, add u/j to the mix, where we could very well be seeing a bounce soon (next coming days) and that gives us probably another 100 pips down overall before continuing upwards. I have higher targets for U/J at 105-106 for the bounce, which is about 300 pips from here. Once G/u finishes that retracement, I'm looking to see 2.04 and possibly higher. Looking longer term, the monthlies are beauties for bullishness.
Overall, that would land g/j a good bit higher from here to at least 210 IMO before any other movements would happen.

What do you think? Or am I just stupid lol
For UJ as long as we don't get a daily close below 101.22, we should be fine. There might even be a few headfakes before it makes its move. It's very different when looking at the monthly chart because we could have a few daily candles closed below 101.22 and then the last day of the month it shoots up 500 pips giving the monthly candle just a long shadow. So if UJ does go lower, I would be looking for continuation or consolidation. That's very important. We might just be consolidating down here until some positive news helps with a rally. If we keep getting bad news and we see a continuation of the downtrend, then I think this monthly support is broken.
  • #67,128
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:09pm Mar 10, 2008 1:09pm
New One Hour Candle has been shaped and Price seems is pushing to see 204.5 It will hurt me too but , I think We have to bounce .... Daily Momentum still UP but Daily Pivot is 206.50 and We are far away ....
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #67,129
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:18pm Mar 10, 2008 1:18pm
key area in my opinion. hope to get bounce here
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TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #67,130
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:22pm Mar 10, 2008 1:22pm
untill i got confirmation that the 204.70 are breached by 4 hr candle then i will go ride the monster to 201 area .
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  • #67,131
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:23pm Mar 10, 2008 1:23pm
I hope to , but even Stoch touched the 5 area ..... It is the lowest always GBP/JPY touches and bounce in 1 Hour always.... but It still want to go down.... Today I lost 1000 USD on GOLD Too I donot know why is gold going to be cheaper ..... seems people are coming back to Stocks and leaving gold alone
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #67,132
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:24pm Mar 10, 2008 1:24pm
hi dear quecee5 , agree with me about this matter , all candles have high reliability in time frames for example daily- weekly and only doji candles (star-spining top - long legged doji -gravestone -for price - rickshaw man ....) have high reliability in time frames 15 m -30 m -1H - 4H ??
  • #67,133
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:25pm Mar 10, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting moneymagnet
key area in my opinion. hope to get bounce here
Bears seem to be strong.....but lets wait for the close.
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #67,134
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:29pm Mar 10, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting Infinity
Bears seem to be strong.....but lets wait for the close.
bears are in control right now. where is karm when u need him lol!
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #67,135
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:30pm Mar 10, 2008 1:30pm
We Missed it ....
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Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #67,136
  • Edited 1:51pm Mar 10, 2008 1:36pm | Edited 1:51pm
I have intraday low at 204.34 which it just bounced from. . .
It may go back and test the daily pivot up at 205 area. A close above there will see 205.45 1st target then 206.15. . .

A failure to get back above the daily pivot before the close could see further downside. . . possibly 203.40's 1st target. . .

Could get interesting here shortly!
  • #67,137
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:36pm Mar 10, 2008 1:36pm
So what do you guys think? you think we are still gona head up to 208.50 or that we will resume the downmove??? I am still not certain! .... if the 1hr closes below 204.80 we should go down dont you think?
  • #67,138
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:38pm Mar 10, 2008 1:38pm
We missed this too
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Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #67,139
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:46pm Mar 10, 2008 1:46pm
Be patient my dudes, and let your positions play out. We got a bounce of off that monster support area and that's tellin me something.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #67,140
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:52pm Mar 10, 2008 1:52pm
I think price will play a lot here. because It need to get power to climb.... We hit 204.26 and it just bounced back very fast ..... I think it may retest that area again... but Market seems overSold and No power for a sharp downtrend.. it is just ranging now to a sudden climb I think but still no sign of a bounce in any Time Frame by the Way in 9 Minute we will have a new Closed 4H candle... and It is important... we are Under the TFT and Under Daily TFT and We are under Last Candle... It may bounce but I think we will go deeper....
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
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