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Karmo's trading strategy trading GBP/JPY

  • #201
  • Mar 9, 2008 4:33pm Mar 9, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting karmostaji
Price is currently retracing from it's last move down, I believe the retracement might be over at 50% (208.47) or 61.8% (209.65) before it starts the next leg down towards the the monthly 50% (199.63), but I'm waiting for confirmation from the new weekly momentum, I'll confirm it once I get it.

http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/8443/gjjx9.gif

Nice analysis.

I agree 100% .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #202
  • Mar 9, 2008 4:35pm Mar 9, 2008 4:35pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Nice analysis.

I agree 100% .
I like to keep it simple, hopefully no surprises from the Fed and his gang.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #203
  • Mar 9, 2008 4:36pm Mar 9, 2008 4:36pm
Quoting karmostaji
Hi webstakes,

sure..

Green MA,
Period: 50
Method: Exponential
Apply to: Close

Red MA,
Period: 200
Method: Exponential
Apply to: Close

Black MA,
Period: 100
Method: Simple
Apply to: Close

These are MA's that 'Hakuna_Matata' used in his method, I've been using it and they've proved to be great S/R levels
Thanks a lot.
  • #204
  • Mar 9, 2008 4:39pm Mar 9, 2008 4:39pm
Quoting karmostaji
I like to keep it simple, hopefully no surprises from the Fed and his gang.
why there is momentum indicator added in your chart..?
  • #205
  • Mar 9, 2008 4:50pm Mar 9, 2008 4:50pm
Great thread
I like simple analysis.
Icy trader = cold hearted trades. no emotion whatsoever. Below zero.
  • #206
  • Mar 9, 2008 5:36pm Mar 9, 2008 5:36pm
As long as price is above the 4H Gann hilo, bulls are in control for now.
I'm waiting for the new weekly momentum, we'll get it in a couple of hours.

4H chart
Attached Image
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #207
  • Mar 9, 2008 5:42pm Mar 9, 2008 5:42pm
Quoting karmostaji
Price is currently retracing from it's last move down, I believe the retracement might be over at 50% (208.47) or 61.8% (209.65) before it starts the next leg down towards the the monthly 50% (199.63), but I'm waiting for confirmation from the new weekly momentum, I'll confirm it once I get it.
Hey karmo, Just an observation and question to consider. Could the the retrace already be fullfilled to the 38.2 ? Could the weight of the down trend be so great that it could only retrace partially to the 50fib, which was only 60 pips away?
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #208
  • Mar 9, 2008 5:45pm Mar 9, 2008 5:45pm
Quoting jarroo
Hey karmo, Just an observation and question to consider. Could the the retrace already be fullfilled to the 38.2 ? Could the weight of the down trend be so great that it could only retrace partially to the 50fib, which was only 60 pips away?
It is very much possible, I'll hold onto my longs until I see a 4H candle and 4H QQE cross down because that will signal that the next down leg is starting. I'm also expecting the new weekly momentum to be very bearish and we could see 199 area easily, I'll wait and not jump the gun yet.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #209
  • Mar 9, 2008 5:48pm Mar 9, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting karmostaji
It is very much possible, I'll hold onto my longs until I see a 4H candle and 4H QQE cross down because that will signal that the next down leg is starting. I'm also expecting the new weekly momentum to be very bearish and we could see 199 area easily, I'll wait and not jump the gun yet.
Yeah, I just saw your post after I posted mine. Waiting for the market to give up more "tells".

Thanks, karmo.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #210
  • Mar 9, 2008 5:56pm Mar 9, 2008 5:56pm
On the 4H chart, price is still in this bullish channel, if we break to the downside, we will also have the 4H gann and QQE to cross down, so basically we'll be getting 2 confirmations of downward movement coming up, until then have some patience and relax
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 22 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #211
  • Mar 9, 2008 6:06pm Mar 9, 2008 6:06pm
Quoting karmostaji
On the 4H chart, price is still in this bullish channel, if we break to the downside, we will also have the 4H gann and QQE to cross down, so basically we'll be getting 2 confirmations of downward movement coming up, until then have some patience and relax
They line up nicely. Could be a great buying opportunity. Thanks again.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #212
  • Mar 9, 2008 7:04pm Mar 9, 2008 7:04pm
Ok, very interesting stuff!
New weekly momentum is VERY BULLISH, opposite what I was expecting so we have to be very careful.. keep an eye on the Daily gann, if price breaks above and closes above then we are going much higher, I'll figure out later where price might go (falling asleep here it's 4am lol)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 17 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #213
  • Mar 9, 2008 7:11pm Mar 9, 2008 7:11pm
Ok I just drew a new fibo on the weekly and the 50% is at 217, this number keeps coming back to me lol, who knows.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 19 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #214
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:04am Mar 10, 2008 1:04am
Salaam Karmo,

Thanks for your GJ review. It's good that you continue to post again in your thread. At least now, I know where I can find your useful analyzes.

Best Wishes
  • #215
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:08am Mar 10, 2008 1:08am
Price testing lower trendline and 205.85 is a good S/R area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 26 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #216
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:13am Mar 10, 2008 1:13am
Quoting karmostaji
Price testing lower trendline and 205.85 is a good S/R area.

Took a small long position at the 205.75.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #217
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:14am Mar 10, 2008 1:14am
Quoting jarroo

Took a small long position at the 205.75.
It should start heading back up once Frankfurt + London open, I don't see enough momentum for it to drop a lot more.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #218
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:16am Mar 10, 2008 1:16am
Quoting karmostaji
It should start heading back up once Frankfurt + London open, I don't see enough momentum for it to drop a lot more.
Sounds good to me. I plan on adding to the position at a nice break of the 205.90.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #219
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:17am Mar 10, 2008 1:17am
Quoting jarroo
Sounds good to be. It plan on add to the position at a nice part of the 205.90.
Yeah my friend maybe ... good ready to see.. a nice price to entry.. long post
  • #220
  • Mar 10, 2008 1:19am Mar 10, 2008 1:19am
Quoting karmostaji
It should start heading back up once Frankfurt + London open, I don't see enough momentum for it to drop a lot more.
Also the PPI data out tonight should show inflation and will be GBP bullish but they will probably take GBPUSD down to take out the stops below. We know the drill right?

GBPJPY should go up after the news.
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