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Karmo's trading strategy trading GBP/JPY

  • #181
  • Dec 30, 2007 4:59pm Dec 30, 2007 4:59pm
Quoting rumbey
Hi Karmo,

Very good charts and I see your calls are very accurate on the Ausco thread.

Now I did post on the mentioned thread that I blew my account last week, however prior to this 2000 pip drop I used exactly your method to treble my account from January this year to July 20th as I was following the daily chart trend.

So I know your system works I can prove that.

The BIG question is which timeframe to use to determine the trend. This is absolutely crucial as the reason I blew my account was that all the strong Fib retracement levels on the Daily Charts never held. Ok my Money management could have been better so lesson learnt, however I would have still had a large drawdrawn at best.

I took a wild punt on Friday and made 900 pips from the low because we hit the Weekly trendline channel. Now if I was looking at a weekly timeframe I probably would have doubled my account instead of blowing it.

SO HOW OR WHICH TIMEFRAME DO WE USE FOR THE TREND BECAUSE IF ITS NOT KNOW YOU CAN HAVE TWO CONFLICTING VIEWS ON DIRECTION... THIS IS HOW I BLEW MY ACCOUNT

Regards
Dave

PS To all newbies... If you follow the trend (what is it? + use multiple fib levels) you can make some serious money
In terms of picking a time frame for direction, larger time frame usually trumps smaller one; basically you have to trade when both time frames are going in same direction.Without proper money management, you WILL blow your account orsuffer serious drawdowns as you mentioned. If you're still thinking in terms of "double my account vs. blowing it", you will blow it sooner rather than later. I would humbly recommend trading less of your account and/or using tighter stops to protect your capital. PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL AT ALL COSTS!!!In forex, you have to think 3 steps forward, 2 steps back, always...You should NEVER risk blowing your account on 1 or even several trades in a row.
  • #182
  • Feb 9, 2008 10:50pm Feb 9, 2008 10:50pm
Since I trade medium term now (weeks), I look at weekly/daily charts and trade, so here's my analysis of GJ. IMO a good retracement is due, atleast to the famous 50% which is 223, where a strong support was broken and never tested again, so it should be a very strong resistance now. The weekly QQE is also at the bottom of it's range, very very close to oversold area. I like to keep things simple and stupid.

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/2071/gjvx0.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #183
  • Edited 11:33pm Feb 9, 2008 11:21pm | Edited 11:33pm
Quoting karmostaji
Since I trade medium term now (weeks), I look at weekly/daily charts and trade, so here's my analysis of GJ. IMO a good retracement is due, atleast to the famous 50% which is 223, where a strong support was broken and never tested again, so it should be a very strong resistance now. The weekly QQE is also at the bottom of it's range, very very close to oversold area. I like to keep things simple and stupid.
You may be keeping it simple and clean, but it is far from being stupid. I would say "brilliant". I like how you pointed out how that 223-224 (at the 50 fib area) . . strong support and never tested then act as resistence.
Makes sense to me.

Good work, Thanks.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #184
  • Feb 10, 2008 8:15pm Feb 10, 2008 8:15pm
It's always great to see your analysis Karmostaji
  • #185
  • Feb 10, 2008 9:10pm Feb 10, 2008 9:10pm
i analyzed thatGBP/JPY will reach130 by end of 2008,who will comment with me,maybe it is over for any bulls
ele
  • #186
  • Feb 10, 2008 9:37pm Feb 10, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting ele
i analyzed thatGBP/JPY will reach130 by end of 2008,who will comment with me,maybe it is over for any bulls
ele
Based on what? show me a chart/analysis or something
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #187
  • Feb 11, 2008 3:09pm Feb 11, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting greenfrog
I was able to find the answer in Auses Thread.

"Just type (%$) under the fibo levels description in the properties of fib to get the price near levels"
Hi Greengrog.

Can you show me how to do it? I still try to figure out how to get the price near levels.

Thanks.

Forex Star.
  • #188
  • Feb 11, 2008 6:02pm Feb 11, 2008 6:02pm
Hallo Karmostaji!

I am with you on the retracement. Maybe I will bail out with my profits a bit earlier, but I will surely have the patience to see the little butterfly take off. In fact the pattern is so large, that I had to get the compression up to make it digestable.

Let's see when it comes to its fruition!

See ya!
Gnat
Attached Image
  • #189
  • Feb 11, 2008 10:54pm Feb 11, 2008 10:54pm
Quoting Gnat
Hallo Karmostaji!

I am with you on the retracement. Maybe I will bail out with my profits a bit earlier, but I will surely have the patience to see the little butterfly take off. In fact the pattern is so large, that I had to get the compression up to make it digestable.

Let's see when it comes to its fruition!

See ya!
Gnat
I have seen this bullish pattern for several weeks now and it is not an ideal pattern but I still keep it at the back of my mind, a good retracement is due IMO.

Patience
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #190
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:03am Feb 12, 2008 10:03am
We just got a 4H candle breakout from the downward channel we've been in for several weeks, things are looking great

http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/9639/gjfz9.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #191
  • Feb 13, 2008 7:45pm Feb 13, 2008 7:45pm
Quoting ele
i analyzed thatGBP/JPY will reach130 by end of 2008,who will comment with me,maybe it is over for any bulls
ele
why not. my dad use to mint cable. were you one of his staff?
  • #192
  • Feb 14, 2008 7:55am Feb 14, 2008 7:55am
Quoting karmostaji
I have seen this bullish pattern for several weeks now and it is not an ideal pattern but I still keep it at the back of my mind, a good retracement is due IMO.

Patience
Hallo Karmostaji!

Here we have a possible messenger for the retracement that the GBPJPY loves as an interlude! And the upward move was really very nice and rewarding! Closed just 30 min. ago

Greetz!
Gnat

Sorry: Mistake in the snapshot - last formation was a butterfly too. Looking strange!
Attached Image
  • #193
  • Feb 14, 2008 3:59pm Feb 14, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting Gnat
Hallo Karmostaji!

Here we have a possible messenger for the retracement that the GBPJPY loves as an interlude! And the upward move was really very nice and rewarding! Closed just 30 min. ago

Greetz!
Gnat

Sorry: Mistake in the snapshot - last formation was a butterfly too. Looking strange!
It is indeed more of an ideal pattern and I'm trading it, good luck Gnat
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #194
  • Feb 17, 2008 9:37am Feb 17, 2008 9:37am
My view of GJ hasn't changed, I still thinking we will see 217 and if we are lucky, we might see 223 area before resuming downwards again.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #195
  • Feb 23, 2008 1:29am Feb 23, 2008 1:29am
Quoting karmostaji
My view of GJ hasn't changed, I still think we will see 217 and if we are lucky, we might see 223 area before resuming downwards again.
I still stand with the same view and here's an updated weekly chart.

http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/9297/gjeq6.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #196
  • Edited 4:26am Feb 23, 2008 3:01am | Edited 4:26am
Hi Karmo and all,

I'm a new comer on you thread, I love drawaing fib too
I can write much, because i'm still in learning of english

here is my fib on GBPJPY daily chart.
http://img352.imageshack.us/img352/8...0222qc8.th.png

this week the beast closed near february open.
stoch 533 pointing up
fib ext 1.618(Fib b on my chart) is my target.

any comment are very very welcome.

Metto.
in
  • #197
  • Feb 23, 2008 4:17am Feb 23, 2008 4:17am
Quoting metto
Hi Karmo and all,

I'm a new comer on you thread, I love drawaing fib too
I can write much, because i'm still in learning of english

this week the beast closed near february open.
stoch 533 pointing up
fib ext 1.618(Fib b on my chart) is my target.

any comment are very very welcome.

Metto.
here is fib cluster on weekly chart
again any comment are very welcome.
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/7...0080222vx8.png
in
  • #198
  • Mar 9, 2008 12:45pm Mar 9, 2008 12:45pm
Price is currently retracing from it's last move down, I believe the retracement might be over at 50% (208.47) or 61.8% (209.65) before it starts the next leg down towards the the monthly 50% (199.63), but I'm waiting for confirmation from the new weekly momentum, I'll confirm it once I get it.

http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/8443/gjjx9.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #199
  • Mar 9, 2008 4:27pm Mar 9, 2008 4:27pm
Quoting karmostaji
Price is currently retracing from it's last move down, I believe the retracement might be over at 50% (208.47) or 61.8% (209.65) before it starts the next leg down towards the the monthly 50% (199.63), but I'm waiting for confirmation from the new weekly momentum, I'll confirm it once I get it.

http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/8443/gjjx9.gif
Hi Karmo,

Can you pls provide me the details on the 3 colored waves, Green, red and black. Can you pls provide the MA details on same ?

Thanks,
  • #200
  • Mar 9, 2008 4:32pm Mar 9, 2008 4:32pm
Quoting webstakes
Hi Karmo,

Can you pls provide me the details on the 3 colored waves, Green, red and black. Can you pls provide the MA details on same ?

Thanks,
Hi webstakes,

sure..

Green MA,
Period: 50
Method: Exponential
Apply to: Close

Red MA,
Period: 200
Method: Exponential
Apply to: Close

Black MA,
Period: 100
Method: Simple
Apply to: Close

These are MA's that 'Hakuna_Matata' used in his method, I've been using it and they've proved to be great S/R levels
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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