Trading with the Edge.

Folks missing yesterdays up move of 200 plus pips was not painful but missing an opportunity to resell the UPL again is very painful.
As i wrote yesterday that i no longer wish to trade the volatility of a news release. Thus missing on the upward journey was no problem. However, after i had successfully sold the red fork to the median line and the market moved to the upper parallel line again to offer another opportunity to resell it and i failed to do so because i was not focussed is a big problem. This was a very good signal where the odds of a favourable outcome were even greater than the first trade. I know there will be many other opportunities during the day and of course the rest of my trading career so i shouldn't beat myself about one missed opportunity. But, the point remains that i lost focus by writing here and in another journal at another site.
My new plan of action is to stop posting live trades here. It has never been my intention to provide live trade calls. Since that is not the reason then why must i distract myself by taking screenshots, uploading, writing a brief explanation and then updating. All this takes time and there are times when one must really follow the formation of each bar to get a feel if the market movement is in accordance with ones expectations. This focus can potentially save many many pips(by cutting losses quicker) and make many many pips(by moving the profit target further from price action). I will continue to post all my major trades and the commentry on daily basis but, i will do this at the end of the day. I shall do the weekly analysis and ofcourse at the end of this 3 month trial i will post my balance and daily movements for the entire period.

Today i executed an almost perfect trade. Perhaps the best one since i have been writing this journal. The market failed to reach the median line of the upsloping blue fork yesterday. Indicating a further move downwards. This morning at the european session i saw that it was respecting the red fork, so i placed a sell order(206.73) of the re-test which also happend to be at the 50% retacement of yesterdays range. I was filled on a spike. My stop loss was only 20 pips above and i wanted to ride it to the median line. It eventually reached the median line and gave me a nice 112 pips profit.

I am done for the day. A good week. 4 winning days.I added a modest amount to my total balance and it is now down by less than 5%.

This week I am hoping to build on the success of last week by being even more focussed and selective in my trade selection and execution, and if God wills then perhaps i might even get close to breaking even in my trading account.
I shall continue to focus on the geppy this week. Ofcourse, if an opportunity arises in the cable then i shall take it aswell. The key level for geppy this week is the 205.75. If it gives way then perhaps we could make a dash for the 200 level. If 205.75 holds then we are looking upwards to 208.50 and 209.75 levels. Of course geppy being the beast that it is, anything can happen.

A very poor start to the week. Took 2 trades based on whim, totally against my system. Well, in the sense that when i took the trade there was no setup that i perceive as an edge. I went short this morning at 205.50. Stoploss was 30 pips away but as the market moved against me i moved my stop away from the price and got stopped out for a 50 pips loss. Then went long at 206.73 only to be stopped out at 206.28. There are no charts today as the trades were taken purely on emotions. A bad bad day at the office today. Oh well as Mark Douglas says if you take random trades then you will get random results.

Although profitable but another bad day in the office. I was happy that all morning i did not trade because i did not have a valid setup. In the afternoon i gave in to my temptation to take a trade which was not based on my system. After the US figure, cable fell and i sold it at 2.0085. Managed to get 60 pips. I am disappointed that i failed to follow my system yet again. As part of the rules i will now take the rest of the week off and only trade on a demo account.

I've enjoyed my little break from trading live for the past few days. It gave me time to reflect,research,refresh(enough of alliteration).
One shocking fact that came out of this process was that i have a bias for shorting the market. Of all the trades that i have taken live (both posted here and not) 82% were short entries. When I looked further into it i realised that of all the short enteries 28% were taken against the prevailing trend for the day. This bias for shorting makes me look for a trade which either doen't exist or exists but has a low chance of success.
So the plan of action for the coming months is to evaluate the market with an unbiased eye and take what the market is offering as opposed what i want it to offer me.

Whats going on zones,
After few weeks i have come back to find you have changed. No more live trades(understandable) but concentrating on the beast only....good luck

Hey Dutch, Good to hear from you again.
Your observation is partially correct. It is true, i had been concentrating on the GJ pair. This was due to my bias for shorting and since the geppy was in a sell mode i was more attracted to it. However, i have now realised this flow in my psyche and i am working on it so i evaluate a setup for what it is and not what i would like it to be. I am now focussed on both GU and GJ and hopefully i will be equally comfortable taking a long trade as well as a short one.

A very much case of watching, making notes and doing little else. The market is in a volatile phase and after being quoted a spread of 10+ pips in geppy and 6+ in the cable i knew today would be a good day to stay on the side lines. Apart from wide spreads i figured the stop loss would also have to be 80+ pips in the geppy and 60+ in the cable. The market was so volatile that i didn't even take a trade in the demo account.

I took a short trade this morning in the cable. I sold the re-test of the UML of the red fork at 2.0054, with a stop 16 pips above at 70 and my target was the LML of the blue fork. Managed to ride it for a 26 pip profit. Whilst riding it down to the LML was comfortable but i found many excuses for not buying the LML of the blue fork. I guess my bias for shorting is still as strong as before, the only difference now is that i am aware of it and I will continue to work on it.

A good relaxing afternoon/evening. A while back I decided not to trade the news volatility and today i am happy to note that i wasn't even tempted to take a punt. I now have to work on my bias for shorting the market.

Another inactive day. I have left the beast alone this week as the volatility in it is crazy even by its crazy standards. I was hoping to catch a down trade in the EU pair. I counted 5 pivots and the market did turn at the 5th pivot but i never got an optimal entry. Same thing with cable, there was a setup in the morning before the news release but i wasn't interested before the figure and after the figure i never got an opportunity.

Today i have had a good day so far. Yesterday i missed my entry both on EU and GU. Today i have been lucky. I managed to get short on both. In the Cable i drew a Schiff fork and sold the UML at 1.9825 with a stop at 1.9840. I have already exited this position at the median line at 1.9775. A nice trade for 50pips.
In the EU i missed an entry yesterday, today i moved the origin of pivot 3 because i noticed yesterday that price was respecting the UML but with a different pivot.I sold 1.5595 with a stop 15 pips above at 1.9610. I have now moved my stop to 1.5590 and i will ride it to the median line hopefully.
Edit: SL 1.5585 now 60 now 30 Profit taken at 1.5458

A truly joyous day for me. I took a trade for the right reasons and despite the temptation to take profit after 60 pips i was disciplined enough to follow my plan and take 137 pips. In terms of pips i have had bigger winners but in terms of my plan this is perhaps the best trade that i have ever done.

Well done!!!

As Morge says give credit where its due. Well i want to say a public big thank you to you. If i am totally honest i came so close to taking a 60 pip profit and walking away. However, i remembered your "rollicking" way back in the beginning about not let letting a trade reach its logical conclusion and how it skews the risk/reward ratio. I was going to send you a private message of thanks but i think i ought to say it in public. My sincerest gratitude to you Mr Dopey for the help, encouragement and advice. May God reward you.

You're welcome, it's my pleasure to help.

Now I suggest you do something very positive for yourself by today or tomorrow. You need to reward yourself for doing so well. It's positive reinforcement and it's very powerful. Go buy yourself and someone you care about a nice dinner tonight.

Hey Zones,

I got a message today that someone tried to leave a comment on my old blog. I thought they would have removed it, but it's still there. It was too time consuming for me to maintain, but you might want to take a look at it.

http://bobnat.typepad.com/pitchforks/

Thanks for the link. I had a brief look at it. During the course of the day i shall go over all the setups and hopefully learn something new.