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How low can it go?

  • #21
  • Mar 8, 2008 5:51pm Mar 8, 2008 5:51pm
There has been and probably will continue for many more moons across the board selling in the US$.

But I don't see carry trades setup up against CHF. There are far better pairs to consider. Also carry traders think in terms of years, not weeks.
  • #22
  • Edited 11:56am Mar 9, 2008 3:01am | Edited 11:56am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Interesting

However the only natural resources here in Switzerland is chocolate, ski mountains and financial services. No oil here to drive up the currency rates. Ohhh, I forgot we have watches as well.
Switzerland sells a lot of letter boxes. Especially in the canton of Schwyz and Zug. You have a number of large corporations seated in Switzerland. Many "elite" personal are permanant residents in Switzerland - brother of bin Laden in Geneva, Schumacher etc. A lot of Germans and French " businessmen "
Switzerland is well know for many luxury items apart from Rolexs. Most precision instruments are made in Switzerland - including contracts with NASA.
Swiss investments are not only centralised in Switzerland.
Nestle has a foot of it's production in various part of the world - so as UBS and Credit Suisse. Many Swiss businees are fused with German and French ones - though shadowed by French or German names.
Swiss investors are certainly not confined only to the swiss market but the tax on their investments are.
Germany is one of Switzerland's main partner. Swiss Gruyere and Ementaler are exported to all over the world - sold maybe 3 to 5 times more expensive than other kinds of cheese but that is what swiss products are. It's a luxury to buy swiss. US etc could be in recession, but Bill Gates (es ) etc are not.
If one dig deeper into it, one will find what this little country has which is more than what one thinks. Inventions and break through in the medical fields !! Heard of Norvatis, Roche, Ciba !!!!! It is expensive medicine, but you know it is the best and often one can't do without it.
  • #23
  • Mar 9, 2008 3:24am Mar 9, 2008 3:24am
Quoting highway
Switzerland sells a lot of letter boxes. Especially in the canton of Schwyz and Zug. You have a number of large corporations seated in Switzerland. Many "elite" personal are permanant residents in Switzerland - brother of bin Laden in Geneva, Schumacher etc. A lot of Germans and French " businessmen "
Switzerland is well know for many luxury items apart from Rolexs. Most precision instruments are made in Switzerland - including contracts with NASA.
Swiss investments are not only centralised in Switzerland.
Nestle has a foot of it's production in various part of the world - so as UBS and Credit Suisse. Many Swiss businees are fused with German and French ones - though shadowed by French or German names.
Swiss investors are certainly not confined only to the swiss market but the tax on their investments are.
Germany is one of Switzerland's main partner. Swiss Gruyere and Ementaler are exported to all over the world - sold maybe 3 to 5 times more expensive than other kinds of cheese but that is what swiss products are. It's a luxury to buy swiss. US etc could be in recession, but Bill Gates (es ) etc are not.
If one dig deeper into it, one will find what this little country has which is more than what one thinks.
so my money is safe with a swiss broker.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #24
  • Mar 9, 2008 7:13am Mar 9, 2008 7:13am
Quoting Moe
so my money is safe with a swiss broker.
Absolutely, (of course their is always risk) There are no overnight shops here, they have to be certified and regulated. Even forex brokers are regulated here in CH. But make sure they are based here in Switzerland cause a lot of "Swiss brokers" are swiss only by name and are based in Ghana or some other country.

And to Highway good post but you forgot one more point, CERN :
Just Trade It
  • #25
  • Edited 11:53am Mar 9, 2008 10:14am | Edited 11:53am
Quoting Moe
so my money is safe with a swiss broker.
You are not new in this business , Moe. It always depend who you are dealing with. If you are dealing with brokers who allows you to keep your funds in your own name and in your own bank, I don't see where the problem is. My family has USD short against emerging markets through UBS. Nestle, Norvartis, Ciba. Roche... etc -stocks also through UBS. UBS VVA & EF(CHF-EUR-USD-GBP) also UBS. It has been safe for the past 50 years.
With the market situation right now, the Swiss Franc is a safe haven. I am expecting the USD-CHF to go to 0.9600 area - GBP-CHF to 1.9900 area - while other majors might not apreciate as much against the USD.
If you don't like UBS, try Credit Suisse . For smaller size accounts, Dukascopy and Synthesis Bank gives good offers.
If you go for brokers with less than 8 digits in capitals, the risk is the same as in the US in terms of bankruptcy. In terms of client abuse - or protection, you certainly have the law on your side.
The consumer association here is extreemly powerful.
  • #26
  • Mar 9, 2008 12:31pm Mar 9, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting highway
Most traditional millionaires tells me that " Learning how to save is the secret to keeping up the value of your millions. "

Just my opinion. Let each one judge on their own.

Highway
Just that we are a bit on Switzerland, here is a qoute of mine from 15/11/2005. Traditionally Swiss are very conservative in their approach in doing business. The world war 1 and 2 mentality are still behind their minds on the topic about saving.

Below, is a qoute from Warren Buffet though he might say it like a joke. He could easily buy a new golf stick but instead he just stich the damaged one back.
Hope I had not understand it wrong.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Thursday, 6 Mar 2008
Warren Buffett Jokes to CNBC: I Passed Gates on Wealth List Because I "Spend Less"

Warren Buffett tells CNBC's Becky Quick, with his familiar laugh, that he was able to replace Microsoft's Bill Gates as the world's richest person because he "spends less."In a brief off-camera telephone chat about Forbes' new list of global billionaires, with Buffett and his estimated $62 billion in the top position, the Berkshire Hathaway chairman joked that "it's a tribute to thriftiness
  • #27
  • Mar 11, 2008 9:13am Mar 11, 2008 9:13am
Well today is a prime example of what I was talking about above. The dollar continues to weaken relative to most currencies, including the Swissy, unless the fed steps in. That happened today in the form of a 200 billion dollar bandaid of liquidity and the change in acceptance of Mtg assets as collateral.

So, we got a pop in the USDCHF. Will it last? I don't think so, because to me this looks like a desperate act. We shall see.
  • #28
  • Mar 11, 2008 12:45pm Mar 11, 2008 12:45pm
yah, desperate,..so the basic question now is, can it go lower,...i dont know for usd/chf, since they still wona cut the rates, but for eur/chf, i think its over unless, the chf hike or euro cuts them,....on the other hand it preety much depends from carries....chf/jpy looks like it wona stay flat at 100...
its just money
  • #29
  • Mar 13, 2008 7:38am Mar 13, 2008 7:38am
Yes it can go lower. It will keep going lower in reference to the Dollar, until the feds stop beating up the dollar. The fact that they pumped in this 200B is proof that the Feds know that rate cuts are not doing the job. So now, what next? Low US rates means weak $ simple as that.
  • #30
  • Mar 13, 2008 8:32pm Mar 13, 2008 8:32pm
I'm not going to pretend that I have any significant amount of knowledge when it comes to non-technical aspect of trading but I saw an article on some financial page approximately 1 year ago(apologies for not remember where) stating that the fed is somehow supporting/favoring a continuation of even weaker dollar. The main reason was, the writer said, laid in the big debt US had (about 50 trillion dollar) and if the dollar would continue to lower its value, the US debt would decrease. And the long-term "strategy" was to eliminate dollar and form a new currency.

I know this statement balance finely on the edge of conspiracy-theory, making me skeptical of nature to it's credibility, but have any of you heard/read something like this before?

This "must" be way of, right? No country would devastate their own currency to get rid of debt? Side-effects would have been even worse, which seems logical to me even without to much insight on this field.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #31
  • Mar 14, 2008 7:06am Mar 14, 2008 7:06am
Quoting aediaz1
I'm not going to pretend that I have any significant amount of knowledge when it comes to non-technical aspect of trading but I saw an article on some financial page approximately 1 year ago(apologies for not remember where) stating that the fed is somehow supporting/favoring a continuation of even weaker dollar. The main reason was, the writer said, laid in the big debt US had (about 50 trillion dollar) and if the dollar would continue to lower its value, the US debt would decrease. And the long-term "strategy" was to eliminate dollar and form a new currency.

I know this statement balance finely on the edge of conspiracy-theory, making me skeptical of nature to it's credibility, but have any of you heard/read something like this before?

This "must" be way of, right? No country would devastate their own currency to get rid of debt? Side-effects would have been even worse, which seems logical to me even without to much insight on this field.
It's the "AMERO" conspiracy. Not sure if it's true or will ever happen. I think most Americans would disapprove sharing a currency with Mexico and Canada. Right wingers would say this is giving Mexico a free ticket and left wingers would say this is the work of the elitest right wingers who are just trying to make a quick buck. And the middle independents would say It's the only way to compete with the Euro, so it would be stuck in a bipartisan gridlock for decades. Just like everything else.
Wait and see.
Just Trade It
  • #32
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:01am Mar 14, 2008 9:01am
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand here's parity
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #33
  • Mar 14, 2008 9:18am Mar 14, 2008 9:18am
Quoting SeekingLight
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand here's parity

Just Trade It
  • #34
  • Mar 14, 2008 10:53am Mar 14, 2008 10:53am
will $1 be equal to 1 yen in near future ?
  • #35
  • Mar 14, 2008 11:13am Mar 14, 2008 11:13am
Quoting forexlion
will $1 be equal to 1 yen in near future ?
Not in our lifetime or unless, everyone de-pegs from the $ and the $ is re-valuated.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #36
  • Mar 14, 2008 1:19pm Mar 14, 2008 1:19pm
How do you feel about 0.9750 USDCHF?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #37
  • Mar 14, 2008 1:21pm Mar 14, 2008 1:21pm
Quoting SeekingLight
How do you feel about 0.9750 USDCHF?
I wish I knew... I will keep shorting until something fundmental changes in the US. Or until we get a big and convincing rally with convincing volume in the S&P500 and the Dow.
  • #38
  • Mar 14, 2008 1:24pm Mar 14, 2008 1:24pm
Quoting smjones
Or until we get a big and convincing rally with convincing volume in the S&P500 and the Dow.
I was SO tempted to just write "Ah, so never, really" for a second there


Just being silly, sorry..is everyone ready for next week though?

It will be so ugly..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #39
  • Mar 14, 2008 1:39pm Mar 14, 2008 1:39pm
Quoting SeekingLight
I was SO tempted to just write "Ah, so never, really" for a second there


Just being silly, sorry..is everyone ready for next week though?

It will be so ugly..
The uglier, the better. As far as the rumor about the Central Banks intervening to shore up the dollar, imvho, it will not be happening anytime soon. It would be illogical as investors / traders would most certainly sell on the $ rallies / buy on the dips.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #40
  • Mar 14, 2008 3:19pm Mar 14, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting SeekingLight
How do you feel about 0.9750 USDCHF?
Unglaublich. Employees at UBS are talking of buying dollars. (Thats code talk) . As it has come to an unbelievable level. It's all over Parade platz as they say.
Just Trade It
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