Looking for indicator showing Big Bank trading dierection on EurUsd

Hello all,

I am looking for help finding any indicator that shows the whether the BIG Bank traders are holding long or short positions on the EuroUsd.

Is there anyone that can help me find any such indicator?

I know about the COT report, but it is for the previous week I think. I keep an eye on the news also... But my intent is to trade only in the direction they do.

I would love to have something that can plug me in to what they are doing now, or any other place I can go to get the up to date information to be able to find out and catch their moves and their changes. Thank you in advance for any help!

It's a Level II. I don't think MT has it yet or will ever have it. Choose another broker and platform.

Look for research by Rich Lyons, a professor at UC Berkeley. He authored or co-authored a number of papers on high frequency FX data and various topics associated with high frequency data. He notes that currency flows predict returns, and he does describe how he gets the data in his papers. Good luck getting the data, though. The only people with this data that I know of are -- Citibank, Deutsche Bank and State Street -- and they're probably not going to give it to you. Reuters also has the raw data, but I'm pretty sure they don't release it.

Ngawang

You can find Rich Lyon's working papers here:

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/lyons/wp.html

Ngawang

Thank you for the link, ngwang.

I think it should be obvious that the largest positions are going to move the market the most. It would "tell the future" in the same way fibonacci would, as if you have enough money trading to a specific target, it will get there.

Before I read some of Rich's FX market micro structure research, my expectations were exactly the ones you stated above -- that large trades move the markets while small ones go unnoticed. To some degree this has to be true. A large trade or series of trades in the same direction will probably move the market a bit, but the market won't continue if there's no follow through. These seem to be the kinds of market moves that scalpers thrive on.

The interesting thing I learned from the micro structure research is that it's a persistent build of up of flow in a particular direction that begins to really move a currency up or down. Those moves can persist for up to a month according to the results I've seen. These are the moves that create profits for breakout traders or slightly longer term plays than the scalpers go in for.

Unfortunately, I don't have the data and so can't really do anything with the information other than know that it's true.

Ngawang