Nonfarm payroll (what happened?!?!?!) | Forex Factory

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Nonfarm payroll (what happened?!?!?!)

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 7, 2008 9:38am Mar 7, 2008 9:38am
:surprised
Hi,
can anybody tell me why, why, why?!? with bad US data (-63k nonfarm payroll) USD is going up??
I'm no new at FX but every time this frigging data shocks me.. i just don't get it!
can someone tell me whyyyy??
Thanks
Fuck Forex Factory
  • #2
  • Mar 7, 2008 9:55am Mar 7, 2008 9:55am
It's not the data/news, it's how the market reacts to the data/news that matters.
  • #3
  • Mar 7, 2008 9:56am Mar 7, 2008 9:56am
I'm loving it
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #4
  • Mar 7, 2008 9:58am Mar 7, 2008 9:58am
Quoting alelualdi
:surprised
Hi,
can anybody tell me why, why, why?!? with bad US data (-63k nonfarm payroll) USD is going up??
I'm no new at FX but every time this frigging data shocks me.. i just don't get it!
can someone tell me whyyyy??
Thanks

Now don't take this as gospel, because I ain't no expert, but the surge before and after the NFP took the index upto and around the 1st resistance line on todays Pivots.
As many traders trade news this would have been a good point to close out the position having taken a good chunk of profit, also the traders who trade the PP's would possibly have see the rebound as a good exit point, as their next entries would have been to the north of this point and bears were winning at that point so there was no further impetus.
Personally I went Long this market on Wednesday evening and currently stand in a positive position 200 pips, I am staying with this position for the meantime with the hope that the market shall continue in its bullish mode (RSI is around 67 on the daily chart).
Like I said don't take this as gospel but it is 1 possible explanation.
  • #5
  • Mar 7, 2008 10:03am Mar 7, 2008 10:03am
I am wondering, just wondering.

Is it because the market reacts to the news of the Federal Reserve plans to increase its loans to banks this month to offset a deepening credit crisis threatening to tip the U.S. economy into a recession?

I also noted that both 4Hour Daily, and even Weekly are in a very oversold level 20.

Just want to ask you experts, if this is a rebounce? what level it will go up to?

JMHO.
  • #6
  • Mar 8, 2008 5:27pm Mar 8, 2008 5:27pm
it's as simple as that it was so clear that the price is going to reach the 1.5500 with the first support and 1.5300
now why would the bulls buy at a price as high as 1.5420?
they just pushed the price low and bought again.
it happens all the time.. and you should not panic!
Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #7
  • Mar 8, 2008 10:08pm Mar 8, 2008 10:08pm
"Buy on the (bullish) rumor, sell on the fact", or vice versa "Sell on the (bearish) rumor, buy on the fact". That’s often (not always) the case of how the market reacts to the news.
  • #8
  • Mar 8, 2008 10:38pm Mar 8, 2008 10:38pm
The behaviour of the market after news is always very indicative of the trend. What it tells me in last few weeks is that it is very likely that the USD has bottomed. After the initial drop on bad news the USD rallies. Looks like a change in sentiment to me.
  • #9
  • Mar 8, 2008 11:07pm Mar 8, 2008 11:07pm
Quoting alelualdi
:surprised
Hi,
can anybody tell me why, why, why?!? with bad US data (-63k nonfarm payroll) USD is going up??
I'm no new at FX but every time this frigging data shocks me.. i just don't get it!
can someone tell me whyyyy??
Thanks
Looks like 101.2, which was hit right after the news, is a major historical support point. Check out the monthly usdjpy chart:
Attached Image
  • #10
  • Mar 9, 2008 12:09am Mar 9, 2008 12:09am
Quoting PipStar
The behaviour of the market after news is always very indicative of the trend. What it tells me in last few weeks is that it is very likely that the USD has bottomed. After the initial drop on bad news the USD rallies. Looks like a change in sentiment to me.
I would agree.

The chart also seems to say USD may bounce back up from here (even though it may not be a long-term up move). But the market is always right, Let's wait and see.
  • #11
  • Edited 5:07am Mar 9, 2008 1:51am | Edited 5:07am
In very simple terms, it's called Rape and Pillage. Everybody and their sister is looking for a reason to short the Eur. Now that they've run it down a bit, they're going to suck in 90% of the retail traders to go short if they already haven't. Plus, the big money is looking to buy more Eur at a discount. They'll drive it down a bit more then continue the uptrend.
  • #12
  • Mar 9, 2008 4:08am Mar 9, 2008 4:08am
hmmm they all go down after the news I was in 2 hours b4 the news, if you took it from Thursday you might gain at least 100 pips from each pair

I managed to earn 350 pips from 8 pairs (USD and JPY pairs)
  • #13
  • Mar 11, 2008 1:36pm Mar 11, 2008 1:36pm
The dollar made a nice run today. Obviously it was helped by the Trade Balance report at 8:30 EST and the Fed’s announcement of injecting $200 billion to cash-strapped financial institutions this morning.

I checked out CNN news but could not find the exact time the Fed made the $200b program announcement. Does anyone happen to know the announcement time? I’m trying to see how the forex markets react to this news. Thanks!
  • #14
  • Last Post: Mar 11, 2008 1:43pm Mar 11, 2008 1:43pm
Quoting alelualdi
:surprised
Hi,
can anybody tell me why, why, why?!?
can someone tell me whyyyy??
Thanks
lol...check this video....:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=JZssHpA0pVc
its just money
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