How low can it go? | Forex Factory

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How low can it go?

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 7, 2008 6:54am Mar 7, 2008 6:54am
The U.S dollar fell to 1.0183 against the CHF. I bought a few thousand dollars at 1.08 as I considered that to be cheap, now I think I will buy a few thousand more. Does that make sense? To make money selling the dollar only to use some of the profits to buy it back? But seriously how much lower can it go?
Just Trade It
  • #2
  • Mar 7, 2008 7:04am Mar 7, 2008 7:04am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
The U.S dollar fell to 1.0183 against the CHF. I bought a few thousand dollars at 1.08 as I considered that to be cheap, now I think I will buy a few thousand more. Does that make sense? To make money selling the dollar only to use some of the profits to buy it back? But seriously how much lower can it go?
IMO, it can keep going lower until the Feds decide they have a weak enough dollar. As long as rates drop and stay low, the dollar is becoming a funding currency.

The USDCHF is interesting, because the two currencies are actually nearly interest neutral. So this pair really shows the driving forces in the dollar.
  • #3
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:42am Mar 7, 2008 8:42am
Well I did it, I called my bank and bought dollars at a 1.015 CHF rate.
If it keeps going lower I'll just buy more. My next vacation to the states is going to be so cheap.
Just Trade It
  • #4
  • Mar 7, 2008 1:52pm Mar 7, 2008 1:52pm
well about a month ago i was looking for long entry points on the dollar... i didnt think it could go any lower, and here we are. two markets have me baffled right now...the dollar and oil

at least you are getting a good vacation out of this! :
Relax and be happy.
  • #5
  • Mar 7, 2008 2:14pm Mar 7, 2008 2:14pm
Stock up on California Red on your va-cay stateside.
  • #6
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:38pm Mar 7, 2008 5:38pm
I think we all know how low can it go...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #7
  • Mar 7, 2008 10:24pm Mar 7, 2008 10:24pm
i dont trade this pair but i thought id lookat my charts for curiousity to see,
wow the rule of 9 shows no trend change the ema 5,7 22 cross keep pointing down.it looks like this is a great short , butwhere will it end? until the rule of 9 changes this has a way to go , so igive up where is the bottom
From Brian
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  • #8
  • Mar 7, 2008 10:54pm Mar 7, 2008 10:54pm
i just thoughti show the hourly chart with the water levels price AND RULE OF 9 STILL GOING DOWN
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  • #9
  • Mar 8, 2008 6:49am Mar 8, 2008 6:49am
Quoting merlin
well about a month ago i was looking for long entry points on the dollar... i didnt think it could go any lower, and here we are. two markets have me baffled right now...the dollar and oil

at least you are getting a good vacation out of this! :
The dollar index could possibly hit between 68-69.xx by the time The Fed cuts rates. Overall, I anticipate the $ Index going down to the low 60.xx's by years end (Imvho).
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #10
  • Mar 8, 2008 7:38am Mar 8, 2008 7:38am
I think we're in uncharted territory on the USDX and one of the prime rules is never to try and outguess a trend

IMHO a lot of pairs can reach parity and this includes the USDCHF. Big whoop saying this NOW, but I was looking towards this possibility quite a while ago already as well
We moved rather swiftly on this one after some key levels went on weekly, didn't we..

What interesting times we live in indeed..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #11
  • Edited 8:27am Mar 8, 2008 7:58am | Edited 8:27am
Quoting SeekingLight
I think we're in uncharted territory on the USDX and one of the prime rules is never to try and outguess a trend

IMHO a lot of pairs can reach parity and this includes the USDCHF. Big whoop saying this NOW, but I was looking towards this possibility quite a while ago already as well
We moved rather swiftly on this one after some key levels went on weekly, didn't we..

What interesting times we live in indeed..
I agree with you 100% that we are in uncharted territory. The reason I said that we might see the $ index in the low 60's by years end is due to several reasons. Mainly due to the sub-prime issue which has clearly spread to other parts of economy (there is no quick fix,all the Fed can really do put a band aid on it), inflation creeping up wards, loss of jobs, consumer confidence (which has been eroding for quite some time now), Geo-political tensions around the world (including our own hemisphere), Home values on a decline and last but not least, the dollar has been on a decline for the past 5+ years. It is not about to change overnight. It will take time (quite a bit of time, several years, maybe even decades).

I've seen multi-story buildings go up in less than six weeks (40+ stories) but I have also seen them come down in less than a minute.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #12
  • Mar 8, 2008 12:58pm Mar 8, 2008 12:58pm
How about down here, as good a guess as any. But not straight away this week. sign of retracement against all odds?
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GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #13
  • Mar 8, 2008 12:59pm Mar 8, 2008 12:59pm
I was having one of those expansive moments and started zooming out on my mthly charts.
Got to thinking what the hell is going on....
Thought back to the days of the Bretton Woods and that time when the Global banking cartel pulled their big takeover.
What were they thinking. Short and medium term we can see their plans panned out pretty good, but long term?
There you are sucking on a fat Cuban cigar drinking brandy laughing with your buddies how you just pulled off the deal of the century and how your childrens children and their families would be minted forever. Next comes the inevitable conclution of the meglamanic vision......a global currecy for your world bank.
Cheers JP!http://www.james16group.us/forums/im...es/biggrin.gif

So here I am looking at the monthly's
had nearly 100yrs since the party and parity looks close enough to spit at.

Try it, great party game guess the value of your money against one Earth Pound. They will of course be pounds whatever they are called because we got GMT and Londonhttp://www.james16group.us/forums/im...es/biggrin.gif. Jokes aside sovereinty is the only problem in the way of the obvious solution to one sustainable world. One money.

But really we talk often of defining the trend. Sure trends within trends within trends but what is THE trend. Could there be a plan here are we seeing it tighten?
Interesting times we live inhttp://www.james16group.us/forums/im...es/redface.gif
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #14
  • Mar 8, 2008 2:05pm Mar 8, 2008 2:05pm
eur/chf at 1.5666 might be the bottom as well, ..., we might be testing it one more time, but if holds, the bulls will step in,...ofcorse we might test it from down to up like we did once from up to down....but then again, catching bottoms not so good,..i would add only if wining,....
its just money
  • #15
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:25pm Mar 8, 2008 4:25pm
Here was a p.m sent to me


Hi Big Wave Rider,

If the feds cut by 50 bsp or even 75 bsp, the CHF will be a higher yielder than the US! I consider this a big deal: the number one safe-haven currency will yield more than the USD. In my opinion, this is the perfect setup for a break through parity. Better yet, the break could enable a push below parity.

Keep in mind, this is all happening before the US has officially entered into a recession. The CHF has strengthen against the USD despite yielding less. Once it yields more, the direction it will take in the next year (at least) seems obvious.

In general, I see a strengthening across the board of the CHF against almost all currencies. As CHF funded carry trades unwind and even EUR holders flock to the CHF for stability.

Tell me what you think.

Take care.

scexglobal

I have had a few discussions with some of my swiss banker friends as this 1.01 rate has shocked a lot of people here in Zurich. The general opinion is the CHF should not reach parity with the dollar and if it does hit that point then it won't stay there for very long (just a quick hello is all)
Yes the Swiss economy is doing good and the interest rate would be higher if the fed cut but not for very long as they would raise rates at first signs of recovery. As seekinglight said these are interesting times.
Just Trade It
  • #16
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:44pm Mar 8, 2008 4:44pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
...I have had a few discussions with some of my swiss banker friends as this 1.01 rate has shocked a lot of people here in Zurich. The general opinion is the CHF should not reach parity with the dollar and if it does hit that point then it won't stay there for very long (just a quick hello is all)
Yes the Swiss economy is doing good and the interest rate would be higher if the fed cut but not for very long as they would raise rates at first signs of recovery. As seekinglight said these are interesting times.
Just a thought that this post COULD have read like this 6 months ago...

I have had a few discussions with some of my {skip} banker friends as this 1.01 rate has shocked a lot of people here in Ottawa. The general opinion is the CAD should not reach parity with the dollar and if it does hit that point then it won't stay there for very long (just a quick hello is all)
Yes the Canadian economy is doing good and the interest rate would be higher if the fed cut but not for very long as they would raise rates at first signs of recovery. As seekinglight said these are interesting times.

Just sayin'. that's all.
  • #17
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:46pm Mar 8, 2008 4:46pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Here was a p.m sent to me


Hi Big Wave Rider,

If the feds cut by 50 bsp or even 75 bsp, the CHF will be a higher yielder than the US! I consider this a big deal: the number one safe-haven currency will yield more than the USD. In my opinion, this is the perfect setup for a break through parity. Better yet, the break could enable a push below parity.

Keep in mind, this is all happening before the US has officially entered into a recession. The CHF has strengthen against the USD despite yielding less. Once it yields more, the direction it will take in the next year (at least) seems obvious.

In general, I see a strengthening across the board of the CHF against almost all currencies. As CHF funded carry trades unwind and even EUR holders flock to the CHF for stability.

Tell me what you think.

Take care.

scexglobal

I have had a few discussions with some of my swiss banker friends as this 1.01 rate has shocked a lot of people here in Zurich. The general opinion is the CHF should not reach parity with the dollar and if it does hit that point then it won't stay there for very long (just a quick hello is all)
Yes the Swiss economy is doing good and the interest rate would be higher if the fed cut but not for very long as they would raise rates at first signs of recovery. As seekinglight said these are interesting times.
Isn't that what everyone said about the Canadian loonie?

When does the first sign of recovery occur? About a few good back to back reports? This whole credit mess is just the beginning. Throw in a few geo-political tensions, -flation (you choose which one), decrease of personal wealth in regards to housing, big business setting up shop in Asia (namely India, China, Vietnam, etc...), how can we expect a rebound so quickly. IMVHO, whatever rebound we do see, will be short lived.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #18
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:47pm Mar 8, 2008 4:47pm
Quoting Bemac
Just a thought that this post COULD have read like this 6 months ago...

I have had a few discussions with some of my {skip} banker friends as this 1.01 rate has shocked a lot of people here in Ottawa. The general opinion is the CAD should not reach parity with the dollar and if it does hit that point then it won't stay there for very long (just a quick hello is all)
Yes the Canadian economy is doing good and the interest rate would be higher if the fed cut but not for very long as they would raise rates at first signs of recovery. As seekinglight said these are interesting times.

Just sayin'. that's all.
Ok, you beat me to it by two mins.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #19
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:49pm Mar 8, 2008 4:49pm
Quoting Bemac
Just a thought that this post COULD have read like this 6 months ago...

I have had a few discussions with some of my {skip} banker friends as this 1.01 rate has shocked a lot of people here in Ottawa. The general opinion is the CAD should not reach parity with the dollar and if it does hit that point then it won't stay there for very long (just a quick hello is all)
Yes the Canadian economy is doing good and the interest rate would be higher if the fed cut but not for very long as they would raise rates at first signs of recovery. As seekinglight said these are interesting times.

Just sayin'. that's all.
Interesting

However the only natural resources here in Switzerland is chocolate, ski mountains and financial services. No oil here to drive up the currency rates. Ohhh, I forgot we have watches as well.
Just Trade It
  • #20
  • Mar 8, 2008 4:51pm Mar 8, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Interesting

However the only natural resources here in Switzerland is chocolate, ski mountains and financial services. No oil here to drive up the currency rates. Ohhh, I forgot we have watches as well.
Don't forget the Swiss Army knives.
Humble Lifetime Member
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