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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #66,661
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:13am Mar 7, 2008 8:13am
Looking at the 4hr chart one can see that this is a 5 wave structure. GJ has already completed 4 of 5 waves and looks to be in the 5th wave down. . .
The 4th wave traded sideways that's why we've seen the up/down/up/down since hitting 207.70 area. . .

The 5th wave should end basically where we started the bull run and perhaps a bit lower. . . There is daily/weekly/monthly major support ar'd the 203.50 area on avg. A break below that will see 201 1st target. . .

Watch for the break below 205.50 this will be the 1st sign of the continued downtrend.
  • #66,662
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:14am Mar 7, 2008 8:14am
Quoting Infinity
I think yen will fall and gu will fall after 2.0250 which means down for gj.

Lets see
agree only with gu
  • #66,663
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:15am Mar 7, 2008 8:15am
I took the short trade at the retest of the bottom of the Daily Inside Bar at 205.90
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #66,664
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:15am Mar 7, 2008 8:15am
Quoting currinexfx
As you might noticed already I like your trading style and following your posts. Why do you think GJ went all the way up again to the level where it fell from? Any thoughts?
My theory on that... exactly look at price action before the announcement. The way I normally see it is that bank try to go in the opposite direction of the further move, i.e. stop hunting. They want to have the best entry prices...

Afterwards when lots of stops where killed the announcement comes out and price reverses.

At least that is a pattern I follow... btw... best thing to enter this is to have a stop somewhere above... depending on the kind of news. Today I underestimated to UP move... that's why I was already in @ 205.9.
  • #66,665
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:18am Mar 7, 2008 8:18am
Quoting jarroo
I took the short trade at the retest of the bottom of the Daily Inside Bar at 205.90
4 hour chart
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #66,666
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:19am Mar 7, 2008 8:19am
Quoting quecee5
Looking at the 4hr chart one can see that this is a 5 wave structure. GJ has already completed 4 of 5 waves and looks to be in the 5th wave down. . .
The 4th wave traded sideways that's why we've seen the up/down/up/down since hitting 207.70 area. . .

The 5th wave should end basically where we started the bull run and perhaps a bit lower. . . There is daily/weekly/monthly major support ar'd the 203.50 area on avg. A break below that will see 201 1st target. . .

Watch for the break below 205.50 this will be the 1st sign of the continued downtrend.
Quecee5, can I ask you what you see at 205.50 to give you this signal?
  • #66,667
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:20am Mar 7, 2008 8:20am
the fall of bull camping ,sorry shahroodi and karmo
  • #66,668
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:22am Mar 7, 2008 8:22am
Quoting ernesto
Malcomb - shouldn't a rate cut send USD/JPY down???
Ok want to touch on a few things here

Pips .. the rate cut is not designed to prop up the stock market. It is desgiend to prop up the bond market. The lower the short term rates the steeper the curve. The steeper the curve the more money banks make. Right now we have had one bank in the UK nationalized due to sub prime debt ( Northern Rock ). US governement trying not to have this happen in the US as US economy is already fragile.

When the short term yield on the bonds is low investors move money back into the stock market , making it go up. When the yield is high on the 10 year T bonds the market goes down as investors move money into T bonds.

The move in the GBPJPY will not be so much from the USDJPY move , but from the risk assumption if the markets go up. The JPY crosses are known to be carry trades. When there is risk aversion (markets going down) they carry traders unwind ( sell their position ). When the markets go up they carry risk and by high yielding currency pairs. If you bought 200 lots of gbpjpy at 205 rode it to 250 and rode it back to 205 and sold the intial position for break even you would have made lots of money on interest alone.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #66,669
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:24am Mar 7, 2008 8:24am
Look at the UJ chart... unbelievable.

I am no economist - but... might it be possible that with the additional money reserves they are trying to stabilize UJ before the shares markets are open?

The share markets will have two reasons why they should sell:

1) Very bad NFP
2) An official stated that no further interest rate cuts are planned - the opposite to the rumor that was put in the air.

Hmmm... just a thought...

Do not follow... I uploaded additional shorts - tight stop - good entry possibility IMHO...
  • #66,670
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:25am Mar 7, 2008 8:25am
Quoting malcolmb14
Ok want to touch on a few things here

Pips .. the rate cut is not designed to prop up the stock market. It is desgiend to prop up the bond market. The lower the short term rates the steeper the curve. The steeper the curve the more money banks make. Right now we have had one bank in the UK nationalized due to sub prime debt ( Northern Rock ). US governement trying not to have this happen in the US as US economy is already fragile.

When the short term yield on the bonds is low investors move money back into the stock market , making it go up. When the yield is high on the 10 year T bonds the market goes down as investors move money into T bonds.

The move in the GBPJPY will not be so much from the USDJPY move , but from the risk assumption if the markets go up. The JPY crosses are known to be carry trades. When there is risk aversion (markets going down) they carry traders unwind ( sell their position ). When the markets go up they carry risk and by high yielding currency pairs. If you bought 200 lots of gbpjpy at 205 rode it to 250 and rode it back to 205 and sold the intial position for break even you would have made lots of money on interest alone.
well said
GREED IS THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR
  • #66,671
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:25am Mar 7, 2008 8:25am
Quoting crashout
Hey Malcolmb14,

What's your brok for trading YM, you have nicce charts there ...

Thanks
The charting is esignal . I get that for free through FXCM if I trade a minimum of 20 lots per month. I trade 20 lots per day. That is my standard.

I like esignal as i can get charts for everything all over the world.

My Mum in the Uk wants me to look at Barclays Bank . I pull up the chart and tel her when to buy and when to sell.

I get indices , futures . commodities . forex and stocks from every country. It is a good software.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #66,672
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:27am Mar 7, 2008 8:27am
Quoting quecee5
Looking at the 4hr chart one can see that this is a 5 wave structure. GJ has already completed 4 of 5 waves and looks to be in the 5th wave down. . .
The 4th wave traded sideways that's why we've seen the up/down/up/down since hitting 207.70 area. . .

The 5th wave should end basically where we started the bull run and perhaps a bit lower. . . There is daily/weekly/monthly major support ar'd the 203.50 area on avg. A break below that will see 201 1st target. . .

Watch for the break below 205.50 this will be the 1st sign of the continued downtrend.
Nice... Opinion...Quecee5
  • #66,673
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:30am Mar 7, 2008 8:30am
Quoting malcolmb14
The charting is esignal . I get that for free through FXCM if I trade a minimum of 20 lots per month. I trade 20 lots per day. That is my standard.

I like esignal as i can get charts for everything all over the world.

My Mum in the Uk wants me to look at Barclays Bank . I pull up the chart and tel her when to buy and when to sell.

I get indices , futures . commodities . forex and stocks from every country. It is a good software.
Oh yes !

Thanks

(i remember now i have already view this types of charts)
  • #66,674
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:30am Mar 7, 2008 8:30am
Profit taking in Eur/Usd, I shorted from the high ..decision based on reference from FXCM SSI index.. made back my lost from long Usd/Chf.. a bit lucky
It has hit all time high, at least pull-back a bit to stay healthy..watch out Mike W ..hehe
  • #66,675
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:30am Mar 7, 2008 8:30am
Shorts are risky because UJ is trading at 102. I'm expecting a big bounce. GU is on crack and not giving an inch of retracement.
  • #66,676
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:32am Mar 7, 2008 8:32am
dow is falling below 12000
  • #66,677
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:32am Mar 7, 2008 8:32am
Quoting $teve
This is looking like a classic fake one way, go the other. If this bull run continues, then all the shorts are trapped. Good thing I just watch and protect all my pips. I'll give the market another hour to digest the news and with the dow open before deciding on a position.
IMO bears will be trapped shortly, just my opinion.

Preview..
http://www.foxnews.com/images/232138...ears_trash.jpg
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #66,678
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:32am Mar 7, 2008 8:32am
based on Aus Theory , we are going to 207.70...... Am I right !!!!
Imagination is more important than knowledge. -- Albert Einstein
  • #66,679
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:33am Mar 7, 2008 8:33am
Quoting hussin naiji
the fall of bull camping ,sorry shahroodi and karmo
are you sure? stop turning your screen upside down bro
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #66,680
  • Mar 7, 2008 8:35am Mar 7, 2008 8:35am
OK I'm in long from 206.40. I think this is the "true" movement. No more headfakes plz
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