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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #66,541
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:37am Mar 7, 2008 5:37am
Quoting malcolmb14
I have an rsi short trigger and 1-2-3 sell trigger
If this plays out here are your targets.

206.37
206.22
206.06
205.84 (78,6% fe)
205.57
205.20 (127%)
204.75 ( 161.8%)

Here is the short trade from last night .. 180 pips later.

The maximum draw down on the account was 31 pips on the short trade.

We hit the 127% FE at 205.2.

if we break here the down side targets
161.8 = 204.76
200= 207.27
261.8% =203.46

Hoenstly I think if NFP has no surprises to it 204.75 is realistic today
If there is a downside revision (ADP has a negative surprise) we will hit the 261.8% fib at 203.46 today
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #66,542
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:37am Mar 7, 2008 5:37am
I'm still trying to look for an new entrance as well... But I guess no entrance until NFP is released, then we'll know which side to enter?
  • #66,543
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:40am Mar 7, 2008 5:40am
Quoting Jerry
what are u going to do in in few hours if we jump to 208.50 - please dont spray this informatsion, i am sure that u are not sure..
forex - everything is possible 50/50

Still waiting for 208.5
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #66,544
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:42am Mar 7, 2008 5:42am
OK, i.e. to make GJ really fall, of course we need

- a weak USD => JPY is strong (USD/JPY down)
- a weak GBP => GBP is weak (GBP/USD down)

I.e. we need a very weak NFP report => shares should go down and therefore carry trades (= GBP/JPY) go down

As soon as emergency rate cuts are brought into place we would have to go out of the shorts... maybe that's also the reason for putting this rumor on the streets beforehand....

Right ?
  • #66,545
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:43am Mar 7, 2008 5:43am
Quoting malcolmb14
Still waiting for 208.5

lol malco but not today for sure
  • #66,546
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:44am Mar 7, 2008 5:44am
Quoting forexnovice
The noobs are busy chanting the name of the "master".

Carry on with your Excellent Analysis. I bet many here are learning a lot from you although few say it. I have been burned many times while scalping so I stick to position trading now & scalp occassionally whenever a good RR opportunity presents itself.

But I must say 'You are one Heck of a Scalper Dude !!!'
Thanks...I can even trade the weekly charts....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #66,547
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:47am Mar 7, 2008 5:47am
Quoting ernesto
OK, i.e. to make GJ really fall, of course we need

- a weak USD => JPY is strong (USD/JPY down)
- a weak GBP => GBP is weak (GBP/USD down)

I.e. we need a very weak NFP report => shares should go down and therefore carry trades (= GBP/JPY) go down

As soon as emergency rate cuts are brought into place we would have to go out of the shorts... maybe that's also the reason for putting this rumor on the streets beforehand....

Right ?
NFP has always been crazy and Fridays are also known to be crazy, so..

crazy + crazy = madness

I'm going to watch this show today, should be quite exciting and interesting

Will you have time to get out of your shorts if Emergency rate comes in and things go wild in seconds? What if Japan intervenes if JPY gets too strong? (They said it's a possibility for intervention)

You just gotta be very very cautious!
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #66,548
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:52am Mar 7, 2008 5:52am
Quoting ernesto
I am also trying to get in short @ 205.7 - 205.8 area (Fibs, Gan)

Currently I am thinking through all the scenarios and the reactions of GBP/JPY.

* Weak NFP => dollar goes down, shares might rise because odds for another rate cut increase (maybe even emergency rate cut) => in case of emergency rate cut dollar should weaken a lot

=> GBP/JPY should go down also together with USD/JPY

* Good NFP => dollar goes up, shares go down because no further rate cut

=> unwinding of carry trades

=> GBP/JPY should go down also

Hmmmm... my conclusion is that in both cases it has to go down. And I can remember when we where @ 220 - 230 area where something similar happened. You did not have to take care of the news... GBP/JPY always went down.

Any experts who can correct this / comment on that? Not sure about that at all... just my observation...
Market has 0.5% rate cut at March meeting factored in.

Thanks Karmo for that news that there might be an emergency rate cut on the horizon.

At this point if you did not already get in wait till at least 30 minutes after the NFP then take your position.

Put it this way the bear flag was broken last night. IF we break that 204 zone and the flagpole plays out you have another 800 pips of profit to bank as the target would be 197 zone.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #66,549
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:53am Mar 7, 2008 5:53am
Quoting karmostaji
NFP has always been crazy and Fridays are also known to be crazy, so..

crazy + crazy = madness

I'm going to watch this show today, should be quite exciting and interesting

Will you have time to get out of your shorts if Emergency rate comes in and things go wild in seconds? What if Japan intervenes if JPY gets too strong? (They said it's a possibility for intervention)

You just gotta be very very cautious!
you're stiill long bro ?
  • #66,550
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:54am Mar 7, 2008 5:54am
Quoting karmostaji
NFP has always been crazy and Fridays are also known to be crazy, so..

crazy + crazy = madness

I'm going to watch this show today, should be quite exciting and interesting

Will you have time to get out of your shorts if Emergency rate comes in and things go wild in seconds? What if Japan intervenes if JPY gets too strong? (They said it's a possibility for intervention)

You just gotta be very very cautious!

Good advice.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #66,551
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:54am Mar 7, 2008 5:54am
Quoting zoheir
you're stiill long bro ?
Positions are open, I'm not touching anything until I see what happens today.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #66,552
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:54am Mar 7, 2008 5:54am
Quoting rodders
Is this a good buy area or wait until 205 area?
I just got back home!
  • #66,553
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:54am Mar 7, 2008 5:54am
Karmo, Malcomb,

thanks for your feedback! Very much appreciated!
  • #66,554
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:55am Mar 7, 2008 5:55am
Quoting karmostaji
Positions are open, I'm not touching anything until I see what happens today.
I agree, I just hedged the highest longs just in case
  • #66,555
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:57am Mar 7, 2008 5:57am
Quoting malcolmb14
Market has 0.5% rate cut at March meeting factored in.
I didn't see the markets/carry trades to really rally so that I could say it is priced in, could you explain a bit more please?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #66,556
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:58am Mar 7, 2008 5:58am
Quoting zoheir
I agree, I just hedged the highest longs just in case
I have a bullish harmonic pattern on 4H chart, but it won't mean anything once NFP comes out lol

so, we just have to wait.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #66,557
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:58am Mar 7, 2008 5:58am
Good Day

Do you think GJ will broke support @ 204.83
  • #66,558
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:58am Mar 7, 2008 5:58am
Today will be a big day for those who short the GBP/JPY!!!
TRADE LIKE A MACHINE!
  • #66,559
  • Mar 7, 2008 6:00am Mar 7, 2008 6:00am
Quoting malcolmb14
Here is the short trade from last night .. 180 pips later.

The maximum draw down on the account was 31 pips on the short trade.

We hit the 127% FE at 205.2.

if we break here the down side targets
161.8 = 204.76
200= 207.27
261.8% =203.46

Hoenstly I think if NFP has no surprises to it 204.75 is realistic today
If there is a downside revision (ADP has a negative surprise) we will hit the 261.8% fib at 203.46 today
You da man.
  • #66,560
  • Mar 7, 2008 6:01am Mar 7, 2008 6:01am
Pennant pattern, marking the middle way of a move, on 30m chart. Notice that we're looking/favoring for a downside break (since it formed after a bear-run). But so far 1h chart provide us with strong support, for now @ 205. A break to the upside could go to 206 area, while a break to downside could go much further, IMO.
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