Tech Analysis of News Leaks

I have recently noticed strange price behavior on several technical systems 15 to 30 minutes before a major news release. I believe that this is the result of inside information, ergo, news leaks, having an effect on market prices. I think that on specific pairs it could be quantifiable and profitable.

I'm trying to quantify it and make it into a tradeable system. Any help would be appreciated...

Look forward to some interesting discussion as I have noticed this myself and will start to make observations.

A

amen to that brothers....

I do not see any strange behaviors... Just stay in 5 sec or tick chart and see... Lot of people have started trading news now... That may be the reason...

For example, look at this spike in the direction of the eventual news spike a few hours ahead of last week's UK "surprise" interest rate hike:

That was 3 hours ahead of the news, why would that happen? Sure, there were other releases that day, but I've seen this happen before a lot, and there is something behind it. Let's figure out a way to read these kinds of moves...

I've noticed the same thing occurring today. Yesterday when the Empire State Business Conditions Index came out way below forecast, the USD strengthened. Let's see whether news today would be positive for the USD

duh..it was the 04.30 AM (EST) GBP news: Industrial Production (+0.5%) and Manufacturing Production (+0.3%), chillout Sherlock!

seriously though, if it were so, the best momentum to trade on "inside news" wouldn't it be just before or when the news is being released, why bother hours before? but then if one enters the trade with the news, wouldn't it be part of the same game, and face the same risks: momentum volatility, spikes and whips, possible retracement, etc.

bottom line, I think nobody has the power and leverage to "cheat" like that in forex, and that should give us at least the confidence to trade.

Cable strengthened before today's weak UK numbers and went down immediately after. What happened to those "in the know" today?

You see the things you want to see...

Look at this move 1.5 hours ahead of the 11 January UK interest rate announcement, bud, these leaks happen, just not every time. Notice how it mimics the later news spike...

Also, that spike could possibly be attributed to UK industrial or manufacturing production numbers which came out at that time, but it is unlikely because of the levels on the numbers and the fact that those are limited market movers since the UK is coming around to a service oriented economy. It was big boys playing a leak...

This is just an idea, let's test it over time...

BTW, before you go freaking on me saying that I'm just demoing, I just use Meta to chart, my account is with Oanda, the best one, but their charting sucks...

Another thing I thought of is that, if I was some big hedge fund trader, I could go on a public forum like this one and try to debunk things that are true in order to protect my profits. These leaks really do happen. Why could a leak never happen in finance and happen in politics all the time? This is government we're talking about!

If you trust the government I'm not the guy to talk to. I learned a long time ago to not trust those shysters...

DOD