Osama Part Two

I've been doing a lot of tinkering with the system and so let's see if this works...

I sold some GBP/USD @ 1.9547 last night, 90 pips up. So, what if I sold more now...

1)SELL GBP/USD @1.9454
11:18 ET AM
Monday, December 18th, 2006

You guys probably thought I had chickened out a long time ago with that trade....nope, it just took a little longer to go down than I thought...currently up 155 pips. lol

Close Trade #1
4:51 ET AM
Monday, January 8th, 2007

P/L = +121 pips

2)SELL GBP/USD @1.9387
7:04 ET PM
Tuesday, January 9th, 2006

Close Trade #2
9:28 ET PM
Wensday, January 10th, 2007

P/L = +56 pips

I had hoped that this would go down to around 9280, but my technicals are telling me its headed back up to at least 9350 and fundamentally I see no reason for it head back down.

3)BUY GBP/USD @1.9335
9:17 ET PM
Wensday, January 10th, 2006

So you made 121 pips but with a stop well over 300 pips. Is that right?

no....I don't use stops. Well I usually use a mental stop of around 50, but in that case it was the holidays and I knew it would was going to be a bit more volatile than usual so I didn't worry about it. I knew it would eventually come down.

The next time it is as volatile, I hope you know then as well.


No stops is playing with fire but you knew that, right.

Close Trade #4
8:44 ET PM
Friday, January 12th, 2007

P/L = +140 pips

The reason I got out here was because of fear. It had nothing to do with my system, and in fact my system was screaming stay open but with all the uncertainty of the retail reports on friday, I gave in to weak dicipline.

Last week I got "Trading in the Zone" so I'll be soaking up everything he has to say this weekend and learning to keep this fear from coming up again. The crazy thing is I knew no matter what the price would go up eventually, I just couldn't stand to see all my hard-earned pips slipping away while the price bounced around. In the future I'll probably just set my stops and turn the computer off for an hour or two around red events. Anyway, thats why I got out of that buy.

In maybe 8 to 12 hours I'll post my next trade but this is how I see the week unfolding.

I expect the price to descend to 1.9600 over the next 12 hours. The news for the next two days, including four major news items, is all US negative. So I expect there to be another strong pull after the retracement to 1.9600, to at least 1.9730, and depending on the exact numbers coming up, possibly up to 1.9830. Everyone seems to be calling for a good retracement down to 1.9540 but fundamentally I don't see the support for that.

By Thursday we should have reached our peak, as there's no reason the price to break the 1.9830 high, and we should start a long slide down, with the US positive data coming out Thursday and Friday starting the slide. That long slide down shouldn't go below 1.9435 or maybe even 1.9450.

I'll be waiting for my system to give me the exact entering time but it should be a BUY in 6 to 8 hours.

5)BUY GBP/USD @1.9649
11:07 ET PM
Monday, January 15th, 2006

Close Trade #5 @ 1.9639
9:29 ET AM
Tuesday, January 16th, 2007

P/L = -10 pips