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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,601
  • Mar 2, 2008 7:53pm Mar 2, 2008 7:53pm
Quoting totalpips
Ok so how much Oil do you think the US is taking out of Iraq (between 2003 and now)? I do understand that there is a loose agreement in place between the factions in Iraq and the US saying that a certain percentage will be paid to the US as recognition for saving them from tyranny. However I do know first hand that those 'loose' agreements may not be met... Then what?

>>>>Iraq Prior to the American Invasion was a sovereign country!
The Folly of the General and UNINFORMED (American) PUBLIC, is based on Government Propaganda deception, that America's Divine Destiny is to SPREAD DEMOCRACY around the Globe.
Turkey is NOT THAT MUCH better than Iraq Treating the UNFAVORED GROUPS (Kurds) than Iraq was in it's prior existence.
I have NO IDEA of PERCENTAGES of oil splits!
BUT MARK THESE WORDS IN STONE!
"""AMERICA IS NOT GETTING OUT OF IRAQ IN YOUR LIFE TIME"""

Also I agree that a bourse through Iran to get to said Oil would be hugely beneficial, however don't you think that instead of attacking a sovereign nation (regardless on what you may personally think of Iran), it would be much easier and beneficial internationally to instead use allied countries close by in the region ie Kuwait (who in my own experiences love America more then most countries, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and finally Turkey)?

>>>>The remedies YOU DESCRIBE have been tried and HAVE FAILED! IRAN has remained steadfast! Once the OIL BOURSE in EURO basis GET GOING....You can Hang your FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES in Your TOILET, as they will be worth LESS THAN TOILET PAPER.

Also for the Oil to flow into the pockets of America, you need a stable infrastructure in place. At the present Bush is running out of time. With troop drawdowns about to begin, dont you think that insurgent factions in Iraq would rather just wait until they leave to try to gain their own little slice of the pie.

>>> Like I said If you think AMERICA is GETTING OUT OF IRAQ,
You are Pipe Dreaming!
do your research!
Permanent Military bases are being constructed as we speak!

As well you must remember that it was not only America that 'liberated' (and I use that term loosely) but most western countries, Britain, Australia, Italy amongst 40 odd others who contributed in one way or another. Now if it was found that only America benefited from the oil, what do you think these others would have to say...

>>>OH Yes the Coalition of the willing!
Do yourself a favor and Check up on the ACTUAL NUMBER of TROOP deployment form the 40 ODD countries of the Coalition!
AND DO PLEASE POST THE NUMBER HERE for REFERENCE!


Also in regards to the reconstruction of Iraq and the infrastructure, now I dont dispute that iraq is sitting on potentially the most lucrative amount of oil left in the world, but I dont think that is has the capablilities to drill, refine and then ship this oil onto the open market.

>>>Man Get REAL!
MONEY (OIL) talks and ........everybody else walks!

If so then why for the last four years have there been 100 truck convoy's coming from Kuwait into iraq with oil and refined petroleum products.

>>>> You do not suppose that might have something to do with INSURGENT ACTIVITY?
Like If I can NOT HAVE IT ...Neither CAN YOU??

I think to say that the ONLY reason Bush went into Iraq is a little bit naive. Remember he wasnt alone, and really I think he is running out of time to get the oil out.
>>>>Naive are Those that REFUSE TO THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX!
And in Your case ...You need only look in the Mirror!

FxGreek
  • #1,602
  • Mar 2, 2008 8:17pm Mar 2, 2008 8:17pm
Hehe obviously stirred up a hornets nest with these comments...lol

One question have you ever been to Iraq? I have worked in Iraq for the last four years, as a civilian contractor, and on some points yes you are right. The US HAS built some large bases in Iraq, Im not going to say where and their functions, but to those who have been there know what Im talking about. And i agree, that the US will be there for the long haul, just as they were (and are currently) in Germany, Japan, South Korea I never once said they were pulling out all troops, i said they are drawing down. Once Bush is out of the oval office, I do believe (if Obama/Clinton) get in they will drawdown most combat troops, as they are pitching their respective elections on.

Also part of my job in Iraq, put me in touch with some very high powered individuals (coalition, civilian and Iraqi) and all admit that the turmoil there is no easy fix. In fact most Iraqis believe that they were better off under Saddam due to the current corruption, secterian violence and general disorder. There are also other issues to think about, what if the country splits into three autonomous regions, much like Kurdistan is at the moment. i know damn well who the Shites in the south (with the largest wealth of oil) will be selling to, and it wont be America.

Think about the repercussions of oil being pegged to the euro. Do you think the US will allow this? i dont think so and I think the fed will do whatever it takes to make sure it never happens. I do know that some countries are trading in US dollars for Euros ie Iran and Venezuela. And even some of the other OPEC nations are doing so. But overall I do not believe that oil will be based in anything but usd in 'my lifetime'. I could be wrong, and hell Im one to admit when im wrong, but i just dont believe a monumental shift like this is that close.

If all you watch is CNN and Fox to get your opinions on world turmoil then fine i cant bash you for that, if thats all you see. I can however point out that unless you have been on 'the ground' in the situation, so to speak, then its probably better not to form an all omnipotent opinion on it. There are other factors to be considered before forming that type of statement. Like i said 'oil' is the easy answer to explain the situation in iraq, how about strategic postioning? How about 'Democracy'? How about just trying to finish what 'Daddy started'? Yep I think there are a hell of a lot more behind then just oil, like I sad thats the easy uninformed answer.

Oh by the way, Im not an American, and I sure as hell dont agree with a lot of their foreign policies, but i think unless youve experienced the full situation then why make such strong comments about it.
  • #1,603
  • Mar 2, 2008 8:53pm Mar 2, 2008 8:53pm
Quoting HapaSasa
Hi Green David,

I canīt answer your question.
So far no one else has so FWIW, here are my thoughts.
Looking at your chart, the three bottoms look like slightly higher lows in what seems to be a continuing uptrend. The three tops formed almost a level line of resistance, which has been broken.
The uptrend looks like it is still in place on the weekly and monthly charts.
On the dailly a doji has formed, which suggests there could be a pullback, in the very short term anyway.

I have no time to dance tomorrow morning but I am considering placing a sell stop this evening to catch a possible 20-30 pips whilst I am out.
Not in keeping with the concept on this thread I know but the next best thing.
HS
Thanks for your reply. Actually I didn't expect any answer. It's only my belief (or hint?) that TA is not gurrantee.
  • #1,604
  • Mar 2, 2008 11:20pm Mar 2, 2008 11:20pm
Quote
Like I said If you think AMERICA is GETTING OUT OF IRAQ,
You are Pipe Dreaming! do your research!
Permanent Military bases are being constructed as we speak!
duhh, thanks for the enlightening comments Captain Obvious.

Iraq will be just another area of U.S. "presence" in the Middle East.

put the political stuff on another thread please.
trading naked.......
  • #1,605
  • Mar 3, 2008 5:17am Mar 3, 2008 5:17am
Quoting fxgreek
FTI
I am Here to LEARN to TRADE profitably!
NO for the entertainments!
And certaily... I am NOT LOOKING to BE entertained!

If I am reading things correctly.
This is a thread that TROWS COLD WATER on Technical analysis.
AND I am SAYING rightly SO!
If one is to make a correct TRADING DECISION! One MUST HAVE an ACCURATE GRASP of the FUNDAMENTALS!
Which Means BUY on an OVERSOLD condition WHILE in and UPTREND!
and SELL and OVERBOUGHT condition in a DOWNTREND!

Now regarding the USD and take your Pick of the marching currency pair.
WHERE DO YOU THINK WE ARE at this moment??

My Job is NOT TO BLOW my own Balloon!
BUT... To Blow HOLES in the HOT AIR balloons of others!

FxGreek
Hi fxgreek,

It is good that you have the goals to try to learn how to trade.

Truthfully, no, you are wrong in that the purpose of this thread is to throw cold water on technical analysis. Be aware that I have used technical analysis in the course of my career and in effects is a Technical Analyst by all counts. The reason of the thread, is to throw some water, to wake up the masses in the true skills of battle hardened, True Technical Market Analysis, not of those that sell writings carrying the fallacy.
I do not take issue that the market is driven by fundamental issues. Just that although the fundamental issues may play a major role in impluse driving of the markets, its impact is at best always localised to timing of media's dissemination of such information.
An example of which is the Iraq issue that you have brought up.
Truely, that has been discounted already, and that the markets are playing out to the lending ways (loans, specifically subprime areans) of the banking community and the monetary and fiscal policies of the new to come US administration.

You see, at the end of the day, the markets are bigger than most issues that can affect it. It moves on. So is required of the trader.

Don't be overly concerned with the ego balloons of others. This is the individual human shortcoming, we all have it. The only difference is the degree. It takes its tolls on the incumbant. Beware the balloon that you may be inflating, lest it may take its toll on your trading.

regards
  • #1,606
  • Mar 3, 2008 5:25am Mar 3, 2008 5:25am
Quoting totalpips
Sorry FTI for going away from the thread subject I just dont like people making statements that arent true. Yes it seems like an easy excuse to use, but there is a lot more involved in that situation then what was said earlier... Right back on track...lol
@totalpips

The issue of OIL will always remain in the backdrop of possible impulse driving of the markets. That is because it is the driving force of all human economic activties. Nevertheless, unless there is information of grave importance to market, then it slides into the background for other current events to take the wheel.
I can understand that, as you are engaged in the business, it becomes your focal point in your thoughts. The ability to be nimble to be aware of other fundamental issues to see the bigger picture, will stand you well, in the pursuit of market gyrations.

regards
  • #1,607
  • Mar 3, 2008 5:27am Mar 3, 2008 5:27am
Quoting Green_David
Thanks for your reply. Actually I didn't expect any answer. It's only my belief (or hint?) that TA is not gurrantee.
@Green_David,
Technical Analysis is a very powerful tool, in the hands of the trained mind.
It has sustained me thoughout my career in trading, with positive book month in and month out. Does that constitute a guanrantee?
The requirement, of course is that you have to internalise it with the right mindset MO, MM and capitalisation.

regards
  • #1,608
  • Edited 7:00am Mar 3, 2008 5:58am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting luSan

"In every law of nature there is a major and a minor; a positive, a negative, and a neutral. Therefore, in cycles there must be a lesser, a greater and intermediate cycle, or cycles within cycles. Like Ezekiel says: "Wheel within a wheel.” " pag 78.


Meaning:
1-the short time frame is contained within the long time frame.
2-PA is fractal-like: cycles contained withing cycles.
3-there is always a reversal waiting for happening.



My point?


Was he dancing?
16 trades a day seems like a short time frame and tight dance to me!
16 trades within a 8 hour day means ONE trade every 30 min.
Straight MM, right?


These are my silly thoughts so far.

Hi lusan,
Actually your thoght, doesn't seem so silly to me.
Yes, that was the question that came up in my quest.
Then I analysed his swing technique.
The picture seemed intact.
But when the squaring of time pirce was introduced, it seemed that his search had move off center. Nevertheless it was still within acceptable boundaries.
What threw the whole study off course was the introduction of Astro studies.
The fact that astro studies have always been a part of the ancient mathematics (and pyrimid mathematics) probaly lead him there, as he studied the maths intensely.

In reality, he compounded his good studies , with later additions that alduterated his initials. So was this intentional? Astrology sure is seller.
To anwer that question, we have to take into consideration that he move his core from trading to advisory. So came about the question,if he was trurly trader or paper seller?
Unfortunately he carried it all to his grave. Not even his son John nor other sibling had a clue of what he was doing.
What we have left, is his library.
The rights of which have been passing from hand to hand like a commodity.
If someone was to study my library in my absence, he'll probaaly believe that I used "feng sui" and other contraceptions.LOL.

By the way the answer is no, it all in the timing.

regards
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  • #1,609
  • Mar 3, 2008 7:18am Mar 3, 2008 7:18am
Hi Fti,

Really interesting stuff, sure gets you thinking!

You say that his methods were not "predicitive" in the article you posted yesterday it says that he was able to "predict" months in advance what was going to happen. I wonder if you could clarify on this?
  • #1,610
  • Edited 8:49am Mar 3, 2008 7:54am | Edited 8:49am
Quoting Acs_112
Hi Fti,

Really interesting stuff, sure gets you thinking!

You say that his methods were not "predicitive" in the article you posted yesterday it says that he was able to "predict" months in advance what was going to happen. I wonder if you could clarify on this?
Hi Acs_112,
Please be informed that I took that off the net, instead of typing my own documents. It takes alot of research to uncover him as he was full of deception, as you will learn from his writings.

I said based on my study of his trading methodology, his MO seems non predictive as if it was then the trades he did does not make sense.
But he, in his later stages of success, claims that he used pridictive methodology , without giving details of the methodology.

Now if you took my trade blotter and ploted it against a chart. It would look that I had some crystal ball technology. When in fact I was pacing the market pulse.

In general, all traders like to be able to forecast the market and its performance.
Not so unlike football bet forcasting, few will be on the dot, some near and some out of line. So would you like to predict and stake, thats called gambling.

When he went trader to advisory seller, I would exprect that he would do the necessary to hold to clientele, while keeping his actual trading methodology to himself. The question is that for all the forecast that he made how many came on the dot.?
Of course , it would be tohis advantage to have us believe that all came in.
If such was the case , if you compared his trading blotter of the trades he made, why were there loss trades?
That's the smoking gun.

Anyway, I believe that he had good trading methodology and it was probably trend following.

regards

Another thing about studying him is that you have to sieve out the commentary of others about him (vested interest) and focus on him, then you have to sieve out what he did, and how he traded and behaved during his trades to come to understand his style. The best is to read his writings and peg it to his market actions.
  • #1,611
  • Mar 3, 2008 8:46am Mar 3, 2008 8:46am
Quoting fti
Hi Acs_112,
Now if you took my trade blotter and ploted it against a chart. It would look that I had some crystal ball technology. When in fact I was pacing the market pulse.
Hi Fti,

Thanks for the reply, this is what i thought.

Are you trading at the moment? Dollar looks to be on the move!
  • #1,612
  • Mar 3, 2008 8:50am Mar 3, 2008 8:50am
Quoting fti
Hi lusan,
Actually your thoght, doesn't seem so silly to me.
Yes, that was the question that came up in my quest.
Then I analysed his swing technique.
The picture seemed intact.
But when the squaring of time pirce was introduced, it seemed that his search had move off center. Nevertheless it was still within acceptable boundaries.
What threw the whole study off course was the introduction of Astro studies.
The fact that astro studies have always been a part of the ancient mathematics (and pyrimid mathematics) probaly lead him there, as he studied the maths intensely.

In reality, he compounded his good studies , with later additions that alduterated his initials. So was this intentional? Astrology sure is seller.
To anwer that question, we have to take into consideration that he move his core from trading to advisory. So came about the question,if he was trurly trader or paper seller?
Unfortunately he carried it all to his grave. Not even his son John nor other sibling had a clue of what he was doing.
What we have left, is his library.
The rights of which have been passing from hand to hand like a commodity.
If someone was to study my library in my absence, he'll probaaly believe that I used "feng sui" and other contraceptions.LOL.

By the way the answer is no, it all in the timing.

regards
Of course, the timing!

Astrology? It does make sense. I looked into astrology when I was a kid and learned about the retrograde planets. These are observations of planet that seem moving backward for a while...So? A planet moving toward the west suddenly begins moving toward the east and several week later start again moving to the west.

It is very similar to a trend correction. Actually, it is a small cycle within a much larger cycle...This is model for price retracing before continuation of the trend. Again "wheels within wheels."

I think he gave the store but we like complexity and are willing to pay for it.

By the way, last night I started a trading journal in ForexFactory for the way of dance that I have learned from you. Today I played for 45 min, I traded almost every 5M bar and I collected quite a few pips. This is too darn easy, though it takes nimbleness and courage.

I am learning that dancing cannot really be learned by reading, nor demoing, but must be practiced by risking real money and doing it. Our own emotions change our steps and the music we hear.

Thanks again for you teaching, master.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,613
  • Mar 3, 2008 8:54am Mar 3, 2008 8:54am
Quoting Acs_112
Hi Fti,

Thanks for the reply, this is what i thought.

Are you trading at the moment? Dollar looks to be on the move!
yes, i am in.
see how easy it is to be patient and pick the "ripe fruits".
However stay nimble for change, even when the going is easy.
Idid also traded the roller coaster, was good riding.
Enjoyed the tested range more, in that I was more attentive to the mkt.

regards
  • #1,614
  • Edited 9:24am Mar 3, 2008 9:06am | Edited 9:24am
Hi ALL,

Another candid thingy about timing.
See,
I was married and my 1st son and 2nd son was born on the same day and month but of different years, So in not so many ways, I am also cyclical. But please don't take it any further than that. LOL

So I have been celebrating my wedding adniversary and my children's birthday alway in one good party.LOL

regards

watchit acs. the markets listening to u.
For those still pondering about the 3 kingdoms.( 5 mins)
see now the romance is in tendem.
remember how they danced to aifferent tunes when mkt was in flux.
Thats how you can tell if you are on the correct surf and what type of market cycles you're on.
  • #1,615
  • Mar 3, 2008 9:42am Mar 3, 2008 9:42am
The direction looked set, and just as your comments come about being nimble for change just that happend!

This is why i do have a problem looking at the 5 min charts. The change happens to quckly. How to handle something like this? Or is the answer in MM and Timing?

I am bearish the $$ so the bearish moved that was occuring was positive to me, but the change was rapid! On such a short timescale i was unable to capitilze on a move like that, as i was looking for more from it.

"the romance is in tendem" I can see exactly what you mean they are moving in great harmory at the moment!
  • #1,616
  • Mar 3, 2008 10:01am Mar 3, 2008 10:01am
Quoting Acs_112
The direction looked set, and just as your comments come about being nimble for change just that happend!

This is why i do have a problem looking at the 5 min charts. The change happens to quckly. How to handle something like this? Or is the answer in MM and Timing?

I am bearish the $$ so the bearish moved that was occuring was positive to me, but the change was rapid! On such a short timescale i was unable to capitilze on a move like that, as i was looking for more from it.

"the romance is in tendem" I can see exactly what you mean they are moving in great harmory at the moment!
@acs

The only way you can capitalise on that would be to be ready for it, be prepared. The wagons 's getting loaded.It was a good opportunity to regroup your exposures for a re leg of positions.Its opportunity.
If you missed it then reaccess your exposure now, she's have to spread as the rubberband was swift, there's gonna be several test for support. We just don't know where, but if your positions are still at the front you just have to wait for her to spread out well. Notice how the cable is leading herlegs spreading, when that stops then its time.

regards

PS:that's why you have to babysit it. Once you miss it then thats it.
that's the problem. If it gives you 2nd chance take it, if it gives you 3rd chance, then its likely a trap. If it turns out that its not a trap at 3 then the 4th is definately a trap.
  • #1,617
  • Mar 3, 2008 10:47am Mar 3, 2008 10:47am
FTI you asked me yesterday in one post "what is the true cycle"? You also tipped about waves. Is for you one true cycle bull and bear trend together? I hope you understand what i mean
regards (impresive music )
  • #1,618
  • Mar 3, 2008 10:57am Mar 3, 2008 10:57am
I guess we are testing support now. If it holds then i would watch for a move back to resistance and possibly, looking for a break to a new high. What do you mean by a trap?

I am sorry to ask this as it has probably already been said but i have not yet had time to read thoroughly through this thread

A move back to the resistance would give me another opportunity to close out, but you said if it gives me a 2nd chance then its likely a trap. Where is the trap?!
  • #1,619
  • Mar 3, 2008 11:17am Mar 3, 2008 11:17am
Quoting Acs_112
I guess we are testing support now. If it holds then i would watch for a move back to resistance and possibly, looking for a break to a new high. What do you mean by a trap?

I am sorry to ask this as it has probably already been said but i have not yet had time to read thoroughly through this thread

A move back to the resistance would give me another opportunity to close out, but you said if it gives me a 2nd chance then its likely a trap. Where is the trap?!
Acs,

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you really have to read the thread in it's entirety. Be slow and methodical as there are a lot of hidden pieces at first glance, but as you progress the "wheels inside the wheels" (since thats the catch phrase of the day..lol) will become recognizable very quick. You will need to read the Art of War..MORE THAN ONCE! Fti has painstakingly set up lessons throughout, that are engineered to teach not tell, so it is up to you to take the approach of student and put in the work. It may seem daunting to start from the beginning and fully grasp everything up to the catchup point, but starting today is better than starting tomorrow, ask all who have followed from the beginning, it will be well worth it. Good luck and good trading.
Regards
NP
  • #1,620
  • Mar 3, 2008 11:29am Mar 3, 2008 11:29am
Does anyone know how to extract the whole thread into a file?

I would like to print it and carefully read it again. I went through twice and that probably is not enough. There are quite a few subtle points all over the place.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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