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Commodity Currencies

  • #281
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:15am Feb 29, 2008 8:15am
9425 will cap aussie today barring any end of the month miracles
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #282
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:24am Feb 29, 2008 8:24am
Quoting TexasforEX
9425 will cap aussie today barring any end of the month miracles
I think the sell off will come thru Aud/Jpy
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #283
  • Feb 29, 2008 9:10am Feb 29, 2008 9:10am
20 SMA on 15 minute rejects upside move. Dollar is on a comeback!
  • #284
  • Feb 29, 2008 1:22pm Feb 29, 2008 1:22pm
Watch out for a potential comeback for the AUD in the EUR/AUD pair in the form of a head and shoulders pattern. Not unlike the one in Mid Feb. First shoulder has potentiall already formed.


scex
  • #285
  • Mar 2, 2008 5:04pm Mar 2, 2008 5:04pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I think the sell off will come thru Aud/Jpy
Oh yeah dutch, this move was mostly about the yen.

Kiwis open lends evidence to further declines. 7896 looks probable and then 7798 is certainly possible now.

8020 is important to hold. Break above this level could lead to a consolidation period.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #286
  • Mar 2, 2008 11:08pm Mar 2, 2008 11:08pm
With differences in rate outlooks, buying the aussie and selling the kiwi on the yield and risk yo/yo seems prudent.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #287
  • Mar 3, 2008 1:03am Mar 3, 2008 1:03am
sold some kiwis at .80 FWIW
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #288
  • Mar 3, 2008 1:39am Mar 3, 2008 1:39am
When you say "some one sold at .80" What do you been by that (asides from the obvious) and how apart from just looking at the price retracement can you tell?
  • #289
  • Mar 3, 2008 1:49am Mar 3, 2008 1:49am
Quoting otk_kid
When you say "some one sold at .80" What do you been by that (asides from the obvious) and how apart from just looking at the price retracement can you tell?
Multiple reasons.

Basically, the same reasons are still intact to sell as what caused the sell off Friday and technically this move up from 7920 is still a retracement. Only gold is slightly higher which will support kiwi and aussie moderately.

If 8020/8030 gives in kiwi I will reevaluate things and probably stop it out.



The reason it sold off on Friday was all about risk aversion. With the low yielders (yen and swissy) still climbing and US stock futures in the toilet nothing has really fundamentally changed.

Technically, I do have mulitple indicators and levels I'm watching which will tip me off if the kiwi is reversing rather than retracing.

Hope this helps.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #290
  • Mar 3, 2008 3:20am Mar 3, 2008 3:20am
Thank you,
  • #291
  • Mar 3, 2008 7:08am Mar 3, 2008 7:08am
Quoting otk_kid
Thank you,
Not a problem.

Took half profits on kiwi short at 7965, moved stop to BE for remainder FWIW
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #292
  • Mar 3, 2008 5:31pm Mar 3, 2008 5:31pm
With the low yielders poised for a bounce and the RBA decision in a few hours it's best to wait IMO. Very aggressive traders could buy the aussie again...... The bias is up in the very short term as the RBA has a real problem on their hands with inflation very high and commod demand strong for the foreseeable future.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...20w&refer=home

Labor is the key to the RBA printing presses
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #293
  • Mar 3, 2008 9:34pm Mar 3, 2008 9:34pm
aussie is respecting the 9495 - 9274 range.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #294
  • Mar 3, 2008 9:58pm Mar 3, 2008 9:58pm
Lots O stuff to think about regarding the state of the Australian economy.

1. Commod demand and prices are not going to cool in the near term
2. Today's increase in the current account deficit can be attributed to transportation bottlenecks/issues. If it keeps ballooning this will have to be rethought.
3. Consumers are feeling the pinch with slowing retail and increasing foreclosures.
4. Labor Labor Labor data is so critical.
5. RBA statement shows equal concern for consumers/credit as it does for inflation worries.
6. Day to day Aud/usd moves just might fall back into lockstep with risk appetite without new data to focus on.

No easy answers here.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #295
  • Mar 3, 2008 10:10pm Mar 3, 2008 10:10pm
What the hell?

Were they expecting 8.00%?????
  • #296
  • Mar 3, 2008 10:11pm Mar 3, 2008 10:11pm
Quoting scexglobal
What the hell?

Were they expecting 8.00%?????
7.25 was priced in already. RBA was dovish in statement. You lose some piperoos?
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #297
  • Mar 3, 2008 10:14pm Mar 3, 2008 10:14pm
lol no, just watching from the side lines. I already got in at 1.6850... just collecting my interest.
  • #298
  • Mar 4, 2008 8:04am Mar 4, 2008 8:04am
And the first shock to forexland today comes from ......Canada

-50 bp = long from 9913

First for me coz I just woke up after 3 hr nap
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #299
  • Mar 4, 2008 8:09am Mar 4, 2008 8:09am
Quoting TexasforEX
And the first shock to forexland today comes from ......Canada

-50 bp = long from 9913
Market gapped right over that level, how did you get a fill?
  • #300
  • Mar 4, 2008 8:10am Mar 4, 2008 8:10am
Quoting Trader KGB
Market gapped right over that level, how did you get a fill?

It didn't gap on my platform KGB. I use Saxo

It's coming back down. Get it now LOL
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
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